2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[VeloClone]

We are just abusing and exploiting the NET ranking system flaw. We don't even have 1 "resume" win.

yes yes yes... it won't matter for us in the end since we play in a real conference.

Absolutely agree. However I think this is a pretty decent team since the wakeup call in Orlando. I don't think there is any way they could get through all of these games since without getting in an uncomfortably close game or two if they weren't a pretty good team. Hopefully they surprise us all and start proving they are a top 25 team when they start facing teams in the best conference in the nation.

 

[cyfan92]

The New Hampshire game is FAR more interesting of a match-up than many are ackowledging..

• Their top 5 players on Torvik are all Juniors (2) and Seniors (3)
• All 5 can shoot at 34% or better from 3, and 2 are over 46% on the season
• They made 13 at UCONN, and have games with 11, 11, 13, 13, and 18 3's made in a game
• Their backcourt will be bigger than us
• Allowing only 27.6% of 3's made against them (#18 in the country)
• Top 50 in the country in NOT turning over the ball on offense

I am not calling for upset, but this team is WAY closer to DePaul than the SWAC teams that have already come to Hilton..

Decent little test for Otz and the guys before the gauntlet begins

 

[bosco]

The New Hampshire game is FAR more interesting of a match-up than many are ackowledging..

• Their top 5 players on Torvik are all Juniors (2) and Seniors (3)
• All 5 can shoot at 34% or better from 3, and 2 are over 46% on the season
• They made 13 at UCONN, and have games with 11, 11, 13, 13, and 18 3's made in a game
• Their backcourt will be bigger than us
• Allowing only 27.6% of 3's made against them (#18 in the country)
• Top 50 in the country in NOT turning over the ball on offense

I am not calling for upset, but this team is WAY closer to DePaul than the SWAC teams that have already come to Hilton..

Decent little test for Otz and the guys before the gauntlet begins

So pretty much a team at least stylistically designed to give us trouble.

 

[bawbie]

The New Hampshire game is FAR more interesting of a match-up than many are ackowledging..

• Their top 5 players on Torvik are all Juniors (2) and Seniors (3)
• All 5 can shoot at 34% or better from 3, and 2 are over 46% on the season
• They made 13 at UCONN, and have games with 11, 11, 13, 13, and 18 3's made in a game
• Their backcourt will be bigger than us
• Allowing only 27.6% of 3's made against them (#18 in the country)
• Top 50 in the country in NOT turning over the ball on offense

I am not calling for upset, but this team is WAY closer to DePaul than the SWAC teams that have already come to Hilton..

Decent little test for Otz and the guys before the gauntlet begins

Like DePaul, they like to push the pace as well, I think they are the fastest paced team we'll have played so far, it should be a fun little NYE with a game probably in the 80s or 90s

 

[cyfan92]

Like DePaul, they like to push the pace as well, I think they are the fastest paced team we'll have played so far, it should be a fun little NYE with a game probably in the 80s or 90s

Agree on high scoring, New Hampshire is 21st in tempo on KenPom, which is at an Iowa pace.

Our 3-4 guard lineups will need to hit shots to keep margin of victory high and sustain the NET ranking.

 

[t-noah]

It would help if the NCAA released more documentation on NET.

It is something of a black box right now.

KenPom and Torvik are pretty simple to understand -- they're basically tempo-adjusted versions of the Simple Rating System ("SRS") which any primate with a spreadsheet can easily calculate.

NET however... nobody is quite sure what all is going in there.

And for us primates without a spreadsheet?

 

[t-noah]

Absolutely agree. However I think this is a pretty decent team since the wakeup call in Orlando. I don't think there is any way they could get through all of these games since without getting in an uncomfortably close game or two if they weren't a pretty good team. Hopefully they surprise us all and start proving they are a top 25 team when they start facing teams in the best conference in the nation.

Who knows how good we are or will be. After Orlando, I'd like to see us beat some teams with a pulse.

Regardless, we have some good players and will be a tough out for almost any team. Hang on, should be a fun ride.

 

[Sigmapolis]

And for us primates without a spreadsheet?

I'll teach you.

Teaching Excel is like half my job nowadays as it is.

 

[ClonesFTW]

More evidence that this was all by design.

 

[CloniesForLife]

More evidence that this was all by design.

It was a smart move. Still had to execute on it as well which isn't always easy to do.

 

[madguy30]

More evidence that this was all by design.

So....there was a plan?

 

[Nor'MidWester]

More evidence that this was all by design.

You can tell he's been getting some flak/questions about the schedule lol. He's been tweeting about the net pretty frequently recently.

It might be by design but it's a boring design and I'm not sure if it's the best way to prepare for Big 12 play.

 

[madguy30]

You can tell he's been getting some flak/questions about the schedule lol. He's been tweeting about the net pretty frequently recently.

It might be by design but it's a boring design and I'm not sure if it's the best way to prepare for Big 12 play.

The Big 12 for this team will be tough sledding I think so any cushion is helpful.

 

[NENick]

Does a road loss to a team that is top 5 or 10 in NET or any of the analytics ever increase the losing team's ranking? Or is a loss always a loss?

 

[Big_Sill]

You can tell he's been getting some flak/questions about the schedule lol. He's been tweeting about the net pretty frequently recently.

It might be by design but it's a boring design and I'm not sure if it's the best way to prepare for Big 12 play.

I don’t even think it’s all that effective. Committee will see right through it if we go 6-12.

Pollard is doing some marketing.. as he should.

 

[rosshm16]

Does a road loss to a team that is top 5 or 10 in NET or any of the analytics ever increase the losing team's ranking? Or is a loss always a loss?

I'm not sure about NET specifically, but for kenpom for example, the thing the ratings are sorted by ("Adjusted Efficiency Margin") I think is his estimate of the average margin of victory (or defeat) in 100 possessions, but against a hypothetical average opponent on a neutral floor, or something similar. So I think a close loss on the road to a much-higher-rated team could hypothetically increase your "Adjusted Efficiency Margin".

 

[Nor'MidWester]

I don’t even think it’s all that effective. Committee will see right through it if we go 6-12.

Pollard is doing some marketing.. as he should.

Exactly, surely they're looking at ISU gaming the system and may re-evaluate how much weight they give those wins. Maybe not, Pollard knows better than me obviously.

I'm mainly coming at this from a fan enjoyment perspective, these games do not excite me, never have. It's just unfortunate that the game is all tied up in analytics, blowing out bad teams for two months of the season to gain one spot in a bracket 3 months from now.

 

[madguy30]

Exactly, surely they're looking at ISU gaming the system and may re-evaluate how much weight they give those wins. Maybe not, Pollard knows better than me obviously.

I'm mainly coming at this from a fan enjoyment perspective, these games do not excite me, never have. It's just unfortunate that the game is all tied up in analytics, blowing out bad teams for two months of the season to gain one spot in a bracket 3 months from now.

Yeah, just a spot in a bracket.

 

[alarson]

I don’t even think it’s all that effective. Committee will see right through it if we go 6-12.

Pollard is doing some marketing.. as he should.

It probably matters most if we end up sitting in a bubble position. Itd be hard for the committee to knock out a bubble team with a very high computer ratings.

 

[isufbcurt]

Exactly, surely they're looking at ISU gaming the system and may re-evaluate how much weight they give those wins. Maybe not, Pollard knows better than me obviously.

I'm mainly coming at this from a fan enjoyment perspective, these games do not excite me, never have. It's just unfortunate that the game is all tied up in analytics, blowing out bad teams for two months of the season to gain one spot in a bracket 3 months from now.

I enjoy stress free wins.

We will have enough stressful wins and losses in the big 12 so let’s rack up easy wins now.