2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

[VeloClone]

Miami 27 net, 7-4 Q1, 3-0 Q2, 6-1 Q3, 7-0 Q4
Marquette 13 net, 5-5 Q1, 5-0 Q2, 5-1 Q3, 7-0 Q4
ISU 18 net, 8-9 Q1, 2-1 Q2, 1-0 Q3, 6-0 Q4

Miami still has work to do to make that big of jump. Marquette I could see jumping us. But the committee stressed that strength of opponents is a big factor and we have that going for us.

Let's not forget that in the eyes of the committee not all Quad games are considered equal. Both NET Q1 and Q2 are further broken down into 'a' and 'b' games.

Miami 0-3 Q1a, 7-1 Q1b
Marquette 4-4 Q1a, 1-1 Q1b
Iowa State 4-5 Q1a, 3-4 Q1b

It is a bit concerning in Miami's resume that they are O-fer in Q1a. That along with a Q3 loss are probably their two small strikes.

 

[IowaState88]

How recent teams did in the tournament with similar efficiency metrics:

View attachment 109990

Seems pretty Boom or Bust. I think a lot is going to depend on out second round matchup.

Given how close the teams seeded 3-6, it’ll be a coin toss type game.

 

[cyclone1975]

There was that one time --

Funny to see him shake hands with Eric Crawford

 

[jctisu]

They're down to a #5 on Torvik right now.

By the way... our Ro32 opponent is likely somewhere on this list (save B12 teams) --

View attachment 110034

If this held true and we won our first game give me any of the projected 5 seeds on that list over being a 3 seed and getting any of those 6 seeds.

 

[cyinne]

Didn’t want to start a new thread about it but just a little bit ago the top 16 women’s seeds were released- Iowa State was not included.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Didn’t want to start a new thread about it but just a little bit ago the top 16 women’s seeds were released- Iowa State was not included.

Is South Carolina like the new UConn in WBB? Seems like they’ve been #1 for quite a few years.

 

[cyinne]

Is South Carolina like the new UConn in WBB? Seems like they’ve been #1 for quite a few years.

Right now, yes. Next year who knows. They have a generational talent in Boston but she is a senior this year. They have a ton of talent but not sure if they will be the same after Boston is gone.

 

[ClonerJams]

Has ISU ever played well in Wells Fargo?

If it's going to be strange place make it isolated.

I think one of McDermotts crappy teams played Ohio State there when they had Greg Oden and Mike Conley

 

[cyclones500]

I think one of McDermotts crappy teams played Ohio State there when they had Greg Oden and Mike Conley

The 2006-07 Oden/Conley game was played in Columbus (McD first season).

Des Moines game v tOSU was previous season (Morgan's final season).

Both losses.

Easy to get them confused. It was that screwy "neutral site / home series" arrangement w/ Ohio State.

 

[qwerty]

Man, journalism is just bad these days. Right in the header, ISU record vs Q1: 8-9. In the paragraph, "The Cyclones have a 9-1 record against Quad 1 opponents this season . . . " I think they meant home record but even then, how can our overall record against Q1 be 8-9 and be 9-1 home record against Q1?

 

[cstrunk]

@jereseib you still watching ISU games?

 

[cyfan92]

3-5 seed as of 2/23 bracket updates..

Win Saturday and our floor is likely the top 5 seed. Win again on Monday and we are safely a 4 seed IMO.. Any more wins after that could launch us to the top 4 seed with a chance at a 3 seed, depending on how the Big 12 seeding has to layout..

 

[Sigmapolis]

Man, journalism is just bad these days. Right in the header, ISU record vs Q1: 8-9. In the paragraph, "The Cyclones have a 9-1 record against Quad 1 opponents this season . . . " I think they meant home record but even then, how can our overall record against Q1 be 8-9 and be 9-1 home record against Q1?

View attachment 110062

 

[baller1]

3-5 seed as of 2/23 bracket updates..

Win Saturday and our floor is likely the top 5 seed. Win again on Monday and we are safely a 4 seed IMO.. Any more wins after that could launch us to the top 4 seed with a chance at a 3 seed, depending on how the Big 12 seeding has to layout..

Hard to believe an 18-13 team (hypothetically 9-9 in big 12) would end up as a low 4 or high 5 seed. Not saying you’re wrong.

 

[cyfan92]

Hard to believe an 18-13 team (hypothetically 9-9 in big 12) would end up as a low 4 or high 5 seed. Not saying you’re wrong.

It all about the team sheets.. Fans have too much bias to the near term versus the committee repeatable saying it's about the entire body of work

NCAA Teamsheet Ranks - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

www.barttorvik.com

Iowa State Cyclones NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2023 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Iowa State Cyclones 2023 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants

www.warrennolan.com

7 Q1 wins, 4-5 in Q1a, only 1 loss outside of Q1 is to a tournament team in Q2, great strength of schedule..

I'm guilty of being emotional on our losing streak, but the committee doesn't care like we do.. They see Grill has been hurt and before he went down, we were in final four discussions

 

[Sigmapolis]

It all about the team sheets.. Fans have too much bias to the near term versus the committee repeatable saying it's about the entire body of work

NCAA Teamsheet Ranks - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

www.barttorvik.com

Iowa State Cyclones NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2023 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Iowa State Cyclones 2023 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants

www.warrennolan.com

7 Q1 wins, 4-5 in Q1a, only 1 loss outside of Q1 is to a tournament team in Q2, great strength of schedule..

I'm guilty of being emotional on our losing streak, but the committee doesn't care like we do.. They see Grill has been hurt and before he went down, we were in final four discussions

I'll forever wonder what this season could have been with Green and a healthy Grill/Kunc.

Edit: plus a healthy Williams and Ward being able to practice with the team this offseason.

 

[Clone95]

I'll forever wonder what this season could have been with Green and a healthy Grill/Kunc.

I think we're at least 10-5 in conference, right now, top 15 and solidly a 3 seed, with just a healthy Grill. With him we, at the minimum get the OSU road and home games. I know he hit 8 threes against Tech, but I think him healthy, hitting less threes, means we wouldn't have built as big of a lead but would have been able to hold it.

He's not all conference, or anything, but the way they play defense together, and the way he occupies the defense makes everyone better when he's in there and healthy.

 

[CoachHines3]

I'm going to pose this question thats totally unrelated to computer projections but this thread seems to get the most traction for Mens BB.

when we go to 14 teams next year, does the Big 12 tourney go Wed/Sunday? How will that look on Sunday with TV partners being most of the games are already tied up.

Tuesday-Saturday doesn't make much sense.

Question that popped up into my empty brain earlier today looking at brackets.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I think we're at least 10-5 in conference, right now, top 15 and solidly a 3 seed, with just a healthy Grill. With him we, at the minimum get the OSU road and home games. I know he hit 8 threes against Tech, but I think him healthy, hitting less threes, means we wouldn't have built as big of a lead but would have been able to hold it.

He's not all conference, or anything, but the way they play defense together, and the way he occupies the defense makes everyone better when he's in there and healthy.

Good analysis. Now add Green.

 

[cyfan92]

I'm going to pose this question thats totally unrelated to computer projections but this thread seems to get the most traction for Mens BB.

when we go to 14 teams next year, does the Big 12 tourney go Wed/Sunday? How will that look on Sunday with TV partners being most of the games are already tied up.

Tuesday-Saturday doesn't make much sense.

Question that popped up into my empty brain earlier today looking at brackets.

I bet we copy the current B1G tourney as they have 14.. 1-4 get double byes and start on Thursday, 5-10 get single game byes and start on Wednesday. 10-14 play Tuesday

2023_b1g_mbbt_bracket (PDF) - Big Ten Conference

bigten.org