2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

[CRCySpy]

If ISU finishes 10-8 in the Big 12 and plays K State in the 4/5 game in KC, I could see that game basically being an elimination game for the three seed in Des Moines.

Loser is a four seed in OH, Orlando, or Albany etc....

 

[CyPunch]

Miami and Marquette will be ahead of ISU by selection Sunday, most likely Gonzaga also.

My prediction is simple we need 4 more wins in any combination to get a 3. Anything less than that and we are a 4 or 5.

Miami is really trending up. I think they are legit. However, they play in the ACC which is a real hindrance this year and their final two games are against Florida State and Pitt. I suppose Pitt is on the right side of the bubble but not a ton of opportunity there for advancement.

Miami as of 2/22
NET - #27
KP - #31
Torrvik - #32
Quad 1 Wins - 7
Bad losses - @ #207 Georgia Tech (Quad 3)

 

[Halincandenza]

Ok, let's revisit on Selection Sunday then and we'll see who was right. I predict 4 more wins minimum, you say 3 for a 3 seed.

Also depends on what other teams are doing.

 

[NoCreativity]

If ISU finishes 10-8 in the Big 12 and plays K State in the 4/5 game in KC, I could see that game basically being an elimination game for the three seed in Des Moines.

Loser is a four seed in OH, Orlando, or Albany etc....

I think Marquette gets the other Des Moines spot besides Kansas. They will be 17-3 Big East Champs with a win over Baylor in the non-conference.

It all may depend on how far those 3 go in their conference tourneys.

 

[ClonesFTW]

How recent teams did in the tournament with similar efficiency metrics:

 

[CyPunch]

My current rankings thru 2/21. Committee rankings from last Saturday in parentheses.

1 - Alabama (1)
2 - Kansas (4)
3 - Houston (2)
4 - Purdue (3)

5 - Texas (5)
6 - Arizona (6)
7 - UCLA (8)
8 - Baylor (7)

9 - Kansas St (12)
10 - Marquette (14)
11 - Tennessee (9)
12 - Virginia (10)

13 - Gonzaga (15)
14 - Iowa St (11)
15 - Indiana (13)
16 - UConn (NR)

Fringe: Xavier, Miami, St Mary's, TCU, Creighton

The only team I have now in the Top 16 that the committee did not have Saturday is UConn. Reason being that Xavier took a bad loss to Villanova last night at home. Their NET fell from 25th to 34th and they now have two Quad 3 losses. Xavier did sweep UConn in the regular season but UConn's overall resume is more impressive at the moment in my opinion.

The more I look at this, I think Miami has a strong case for a 4 seed right now over Indiana fwiw. The committee ranked Indiana 13 on Saturday though so difficult to drop them more than a couple spots for losing a road game to a solid tourney team.

 

[clone52]

Assume this --

View attachment 109982

Gives you this --

View attachment 109983

Oh darn. A #4 seed. For a team that wasn't even sure to be on the bubble.

Whatever shall we do. The sky much be falling.

What would 3 straight wins followed by a tournament loss do? wouldn't surprise me if that bumps it up to a 3 seed.

 

[clone52]

That's beside the point. I think objectively we should be on the 4 or 5 line. I'll take that any day. The simulation you ran further proves my point.

I'm responding to all the posters from yesterday who think we will be a 3 by just holding serve at home. The selection committee showed its hand and the losses won't matter from here on out was the theme.

I think what his simulation showed is that holding serve at and 1 big 12 win would either be a 3 seed or a 4 seed. That is all.

 

[Sigmapolis]

What would 3 straight wins followed by a tournament loss do? wouldn't surprise me if that bumps it up to a 3 seed.

Assuming 3-0 gives you a 3/6 game against TCU...





The model (and likely the committee) enjoys that road win over Baylor.

 

[dahliaclone]

That's beside the point. I think objectively we should be on the 4 or 5 line. I'll take that any day. The simulation you ran further proves my point.

I'm responding to all the posters from yesterday who think we will be a 3 by just holding serve at home. The selection committee showed its hand and the losses won't matter from here on out was the theme.

You are looking at this through one lens which is just stupid. While Iowa State has been on a skid...so have other teams in our area of 3/4/5 seeds. Just because Iowa State is skidding THEY are the only ones that are gonna drop a seed line? And just because a possible 5/6 seed team may be winning doesn't mean 'welp because they've won three in a row they deserve a 3 now'.

This whole thing is fluid.

Tennessee has lost 4 of 5. They were in our seed list area and bet they'd be below us now.
Indiana isn't looking too hot now and they were a 4.
Xavier just lost at home to Villanova
Creighton lost at home to a good Marquette team.

There is going to be movement all around the 3/4/5/6 seed line.

 

[ClonesFTW]

There is going to be movement all around the 3/4/5/6 seed line.

Plenty of movement to be had within these lines - also noteworthy that if we were to win our first game it is extremely likely our Round of 32 matchup is in this screenshot.

 

[Statefan10]

Plenty of movement to be had within these lines - also noteworthy that if we were to win our first game it is extremely likely our Round of 32 matchup is in this screenshot.

View attachment 110010

Of those teams, I wouldn't want to play St. Mary's, Miami, UCONN, or Marquette.

 

[cyclones500]

Of those teams, I wouldn't want to play St. Mary's, Miami, UCONN, or Marquette.

I might not want to get San Diego State, either. Also who knows which teams would be at 11 (advancing past some of those 6's).

 

[CyPunch]

Virginia took a loss to the #185 NET team last night Boston College. As a result, their NET ranking fell 6 spots to #21 and they dropped 11 spots on KenPom to #34.

They probably have fallen off more than anyone in the initial Top 16 reveal and will travel to Chapel Hill on Saturday.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Virginia took a loss to the #185 NET team last night Boston College. As a result, their NET ranking fell 6 spots to #21 and they dropped 11 spots on KenPom to #34.

They probably have fallen off more than anyone in the initial Top 16 reveal and will travel to Chapel Hill on Saturday.

They're down to a #5 on Torvik right now.

By the way... our Ro32 opponent is likely somewhere on this list (save B12 teams) --

 

[Gunnerclone]

It is my understanding that "momentum" or "recency bias" is not supposed to be one the criteria used by the selection committee. The datasheets they receive on each team doesn't even organize the results by their dates on the schedules -- it organizes it from the best to the worst games by NET rating.

Here is an example one with Iowa State's "team sheet" from last year...

View attachment 109979

Yes, the sheet has dates, but it is not organized around that. In theory the first game of the season is supposed to count just as much as the last game of the season, like in the NBA.

Ya the “momentum” thing was like 2010.

 

[Gunnerclone]

If ISU finishes 10-8 in the Big 12 and plays K State in the 4/5 game in KC, I could see that game basically being an elimination game for the three seed in Des Moines.

Loser is a four seed in OH, Orlando, or Albany etc....

Seriously wouldn’t want Des Moines.

 

[madguy30]

Seriously wouldn’t want Des Moines.

Has ISU ever played well in Wells Fargo?

If it's going to be strange place make it isolated.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Has ISU ever played well in Wells Fargo?

If it's going to be strange place make it isolated.

Bunch of unnecessary pressure.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Has ISU ever played well in Wells Fargo?

If it's going to be strange place make it isolated.

There was that one time --