Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[2speedy1]

the most important metric is tv ratings, not attendance. i saw a video where the big 12 and ACC TV ratings were compared and the big 12 creamed the ACC. colo. averaged 3.15 million per game, way ahead of anyone else in either league. ISU and WVU were 7 and 8 in the big 12 respectively.

GT led the acc, with clemson 2nd, and fsu, i think, 3rd. ill find the youtube video and post it later.

I saw that video too. He made a mistake, and corrected it later in the video, by forgetting to include Miami. Miami should have been in first with I think 2.2M. But still overall the B12 destroyed the ACC in ratings. Top to bottom not even close really. Basically half of the ACC gets G5 level ratings or worse. The very bottom of the B12 averages above something like the bottom 3rd or so of the ACC. I think it was 10th and below in the ACC all have ratings below 400K or something like that and no one in the B12 have such numbers. With Ciny and Houston, our newest members from G5 in the mid 400s.

The really sad part is the the worst is Virginia at 248K average and only 2 places above that UNC at 328K average. How does anyone think those 2 teams are on the list for either the B1G or SEC. No way they take them with those ratings.

Screen shot from vid.



No idea who this guy is, has a whopping 1.5 subs or something, but I think his numbers check out as far as this goes.

 

[AlaCyclone]

All four Big XII Texas schools ranked 10th or below, and SMU ranked 14th in the ACC.

 

[Cyclonsin]

We may have the #1 overall spot between the conferences, but the value there is Deion, not Colorado, unfortunately. Additionally, the ACC has overall spots 2, 3, 4, & 5. Their bottom end is far worse, but I strongly believe a conference's media value comes primarily from its premier brands, and if Deion didn't exist the ACC would clearly be more valuable from that perspective.

But that isn't anything new. As the conferences are comprised today, we've known the ACC has more valuable top brands. If anything, I'm a bit surprised Clemson & Miami were as low as they are. I think this bodes poorly for any B1G or SEC invite, so the ACC implosion may not be as inevitable as it once seemed to be.

 

[cykadelic2]

I saw that video too. He made a mistake, and corrected it later in the video, by forgetting to include Miami. Miami should have been in first with I think 2.2M. But still overall the B12 destroyed the ACC in ratings. Top to bottom not even close really. Basically half of the ACC gets G5 level ratings or worse. The very bottom of the B12 averages above something like the bottom 3rd or so of the ACC. I think it was 10th and below in the ACC all have ratings below 400K or something like that and no one in the B12 have such numbers. With Ciny and Houston, our newest members from G5 in the mid 400s.

The really sad part is the the worst is Virginia at 248K average and only 2 places above that UNC at 328K average. How does anyone think those 2 teams are on the list for either the B1G or SEC. No way they take them with those ratings.

Screen shot from vid.

View attachment 140012

No idea who this guy is, has a whopping 1.5 subs or something, but I think his numbers check out as far as this goes.

The ACC only had like 2 games on ABC for the entire regular season as Disney elected fill the 3 ABC windows with SEC games. whereas the B12 had a significantly higher number of OTA games on ABC and Fox which is the primary reason for the B12's higher numbers. Georgia Tech's ratings were greatly benefitted by their game in Ireland vs FSU (only game on) and their game vs Georgia on Black Friday.

Will be interesting to see if ESPN/Disney picks up the 2027 option on the ACC contract through 2036. That decision needs to be made by February 2025. More likely IMO, there is a settlement where the contract expires in 2031 in exchange for Clemson, FSU, etc. dropping their lawsuits.

 

[CascadeClone]

We may have the #1 overall spot between the conferences, but the value there is Deion, not Colorado, unfortunately. Additionally, the ACC has overall spots 2, 3, 4, & 5. Their bottom end is far worse, but I strongly believe a conference's media value comes primarily from its premier brands, and if Deion didn't exist the ACC would clearly be more valuable from that perspective.

Correct. Media execs only really care about 6-10 slots per week that drive 80%+ of the profit, so you only need just so many brands to fill the big slots.

By consolidating brands in 2 conferences, you kind of assure yourself finding a couple premium matchups (brands and ranked) every week. So that fills your most valuable timeslots to maximize revenue, and you just shunt all the low end games to the low end slots because it doesn't really matter who is on those. The money difference between Bama on ESPN+ and Memphis on ESPN+ is not significant.

 

[Die4Cy]

Correct. Media execs only really care about 6-10 slots per week that drive 80%+ of the profit, so you only need just so many brands to fill the big slots.

By consolidating brands in 2 conferences, you kind of assure yourself finding a couple premium matchups (brands and ranked) every week. So that fills your most valuable timeslots to maximize revenue, and you just shunt all the low end games to the low end slots because it doesn't really matter who is on those. The money difference between Bama on ESPN+ and Memphis on ESPN+ is not significant.

This was of course all by design and built into the media deals. While we were all worrying about the betrayal of teams leaving and realignment leading to a Power 2, they were getting deals signed that basically ensured it in all but name. And now we have to walk around pretending there's a Power 4 because admitting there isn't is admitting we got fleeced.

**** ESPN

 

[ClubCy]

I saw that video too. He made a mistake, and corrected it later in the video, by forgetting to include Miami. Miami should have been in first with I think 2.2M. But still overall the B12 destroyed the ACC in ratings. Top to bottom not even close really. Basically half of the ACC gets G5 level ratings or worse. The very bottom of the B12 averages above something like the bottom 3rd or so of the ACC. I think it was 10th and below in the ACC all have ratings below 400K or something like that and no one in the B12 have such numbers. With Ciny and Houston, our newest members from G5 in the mid 400s.

The really sad part is the the worst is Virginia at 248K average and only 2 places above that UNC at 328K average. How does anyone think those 2 teams are on the list for either the B1G or SEC. No way they take them with those ratings.

Screen shot from vid.

View attachment 140012

No idea who this guy is, has a whopping 1.5 subs or something, but I think his numbers check out as far as this goes.

Where did they get these numbers from? The one that seems off the most is Kansas and ours feels a little low.

 

[Die4Cy]

This was of course all by design and built into the media deals. While we were all worrying about the betrayal of teams leaving and realignment leading to a Power 2, they were getting deals signed that basically ensured it in all but name. And now we have to walk around pretending there's a Power 4 because admitting there isn't is admitting we got fleeced.

**** ESPN

I'm sorry. This reads like a Luigi Mangione manifesto.

 

[Al_4_State]

I won't use the term "P2" because it ignores the reality that even those leagues are extremely tiered. The majority of Big 10 schools would not win the Big 12. A lot of SEC schools wouldn't too.

Yeah, they have the biggest brands, but they've got a lot of schools grandfathered in that don't bring anything more to the table than the Big 12 does.

 

[Clonehomer]

I won't use the term "P2" because it ignores the reality that even those leagues are extremely tiered. The majority of Big 10 schools would not win the Big 12. A lot of SEC schools wouldn't too.

Yeah, they have the biggest brands, but they've got a lot of schools grandfathered in that don't bring anything more to the table than the Big 12 does.

Give it time. The power vacuum in the Big12 will allow for one or more schools to make a name for themselves. Maybe that’s BYU to get back to their former prominence? Or ASU or UA that could dominate the SW? I really don’t know who, but after a few more years I think you’ll see a couple teams elevated in the Big12.

On the flip side, I think you’re going to see a team like OU and/or USC slide into irrelevance similar to Nebraska. They’ll be talked about some, but their time in the limelight is over.

 

[Cloneon]

We may have the #1 overall spot between the conferences, but the value there is Deion, not Colorado, unfortunately. Additionally, the ACC has overall spots 2, 3, 4, & 5. Their bottom end is far worse, but I strongly believe a conference's media value comes primarily from its premier brands, and if Deion didn't exist the ACC would clearly be more valuable from that perspective.

But that isn't anything new. As the conferences are comprised today, we've known the ACC has more valuable top brands. If anything, I'm a bit surprised Clemson & Miami were as low as they are. I think this bodes poorly for any B1G or SEC invite, so the ACC implosion may not be as inevitable as it once seemed to be.

B12 = parity = more even distribution (BOTH top to bottom PLUS extending interest deeper into the season). I've cited this before when valuing the B12. Parity is essential to 'seasonal' viewership BUT harmful for CFP. Pick your poison. If it were me, I'd like parity throughout the season and some respectful representation post season.

 

[CascadeClone]

B12 = parity = more even distribution (BOTH top to bottom PLUS extending interest deeper into the season). I've cited this before when valuing the B12. Parity is essential to 'seasonal' viewership BUT harmful for CFP. Pick your poison. If it were me, I'd like parity throughout the season and some respectful representation post season.

As a fan, sure, absolutely.

As a media exec, give me the playoff contenders. That's where the real money is.

 

[exCyDing]

B12 = parity = more even distribution (BOTH top to bottom PLUS extending interest deeper into the season). I've cited this before when valuing the B12. Parity is essential to 'seasonal' viewership BUT harmful for CFP. Pick your poison. If it were me, I'd like parity throughout the season and some respectful representation post season.

With parity, the argument against the B12 is there's no elite teams because the top of the standings has 4+ teams at 10-2 like this year. Or, a few teams regularly put up 11-1 or 12-0 records because the B12 is a cakewalk.

Either way, the B12 is probably going to struggle to get more than one team in the CFP most years. The deck is stacked. So, give me parity because it makes the season a hell of a lot more fun.

 

[simply1]

I saw that video too. He made a mistake, and corrected it later in the video, by forgetting to include Miami. Miami should have been in first with I think 2.2M. But still overall the B12 destroyed the ACC in ratings. Top to bottom not even close really. Basically half of the ACC gets G5 level ratings or worse. The very bottom of the B12 averages above something like the bottom 3rd or so of the ACC. I think it was 10th and below in the ACC all have ratings below 400K or something like that and no one in the B12 have such numbers. With Ciny and Houston, our newest members from G5 in the mid 400s.

The really sad part is the the worst is Virginia at 248K average and only 2 places above that UNC at 328K average. How does anyone think those 2 teams are on the list for either the B1G or SEC. No way they take them with those ratings.

Screen shot from vid.

View attachment 140012

No idea who this guy is, has a whopping 1.5 subs or something, but I think his numbers check out as far as this goes.

Deion lifts Colorado as long as he’s there, I would guess they’d sink pretty fast after that.

It will be interesting to see if Bill will raise NCs tv ratings at all.

 

[ClubCy]

I saw that video too. He made a mistake, and corrected it later in the video, by forgetting to include Miami. Miami should have been in first with I think 2.2M. But still overall the B12 destroyed the ACC in ratings. Top to bottom not even close really. Basically half of the ACC gets G5 level ratings or worse. The very bottom of the B12 averages above something like the bottom 3rd or so of the ACC. I think it was 10th and below in the ACC all have ratings below 400K or something like that and no one in the B12 have such numbers. With Ciny and Houston, our newest members from G5 in the mid 400s.

The really sad part is the the worst is Virginia at 248K average and only 2 places above that UNC at 328K average. How does anyone think those 2 teams are on the list for either the B1G or SEC. No way they take them with those ratings.

Screen shot from vid.

View attachment 140012

No idea who this guy is, has a whopping 1.5 subs or something, but I think his numbers check out as far as this goes.

There is one common denominator for Utah, K State, Kansas, and Ok State. They played Colorado which lifts their avg. per game viewership. They also played more ESPN + games which do not get counted so they have less games as a metric as well.

Going by on a week by week basis, Iowa state actually has better viewership than all of those teams (except for Colorado and BYU) but didn’t get the Colorado bump. We had 8 games with over 1 million viewers. Excluding the ESPN + game and the Kansas game which I cannot find a number for.

Those night games on Fox that everyone complained about did decent. Umber considering it was always going against one of best SEC games and a Big 10 game prime time game.

 

[FinalFourCy]

The ACC has overall spots 2, 3, 4, & 5. Their bottom end is far worse, but I strongly believe a conference's media value comes primarily from its premier brands

But that isn't anything new. As the conferences are comprised today, we've known the ACC has more valuable top brands. If anything, I'm a bit surprised Clemson & Miami were as low as they are. I think this bodes poorly for any B1G or SEC invite, so the ACC implosion may not be as inevitable as it once seemed to be.

Or it’s exactly the reason why ACC disruption is looming

In the old era, the conference did go as the top brands went.

But in this consolidation era it’s about networks minimizing how much they pay for deadweight in order to get those few top games/brands each week

In the ACC’s case, ESPN is now paying 17 schools through 2036 on the current deal, to just get a handful of games that really pull? And they have the most deadweight?


No wonder there’s talk ESPN is leveraging their option by Feb 2025 in order to change status quo, potentially including ACC implosion

With BIG/SEC targets having some of the worst football TV pull, how that occurs has a wide range of possibilities

For our sake, it’s existential the ACC not exist as-is come time for our next deal to be negotiated

 

[2speedy1]

All four Big XII Texas schools ranked 10th or below, and SMU ranked 14th in the ACC.

Because no one in TX cares about anyone outside UT and aTm. At least not on a meaningful level. This has been said repeatedly for the reason Baylor has such a pathetic fan draw.

The value in having TX schools is overblown, outside the recruiting value, to pull recruits from TX.

 

[2speedy1]

Where did they get these numbers from? The one that seems off the most is Kansas and ours feels a little low.

No idea. I know nothing about this channel. Just posted the info as a response to another post, talking about it.

I know the numbers are readily available, outside streamed only games. I didnt check out his math, but assume its at least close. Maybe not though.

The biggest thing I took from it is how any of these are somehow huge candidates for the SEC or B1G, they just arent, and might show why both those conferences appeared to be disinterested in FSU or Clem, and especially UNC with those numbers.

 

[Al_4_State]

Because no one in TX cares about anyone outside UT and aTm. At least not on a meaningful level. This has been said repeatedly for the reason Baylor has such a pathetic fan draw.

The value in having TX schools is overblown, outside the recruiting value, to pull recruits from TX.

Texas Tech is a religion in west Texas, but I don't think their presence in Houston or DFW is that big.

 

[KnappShack]

Texas Tech is a religion in west Texas, but I don't think their presence in Houston or DFW is that big.

I seem to remember more Oklahoma support than Tech when I lived in the Metroplex