2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
Why the Houston love? They have a home loss to Auburn and two neutral court losses. Our only loss is to Auburn, on a neutral site. Their best win is Texas A&M at home, which is worse than our win over Marquette. Seems weird.
Having 3 "good losses" after playing 20-30 games I understand. Having 3 "good losses" in 7 games....the #5 rankings doesn't make sense.
Torvik and KenPom (and any other rating system really) doesn't judge you based on wins and losses but rather offensive and defensive efficiency adjusted to the level of competition.
Holding Jackson St. to 40 wouldn't be nearly as impressive as holding Auburn to 40. They also adjust for tempo. Holding a fast Hoiball team to 40 is more impressive than holding a slow UVA to 40 even though on a per possession basis those UVA teams were just about as efficient on offense.
Here is Houston --
Here is Iowa State --
Torvik thinks the Cyclone defense has been quite iffy this year, especially against Dayton and Colorado and to a lesser degree against UMKC, Auburn, and Marquette. Houston has been stout on defense in more games (even the cupcake games) except for San Diego St. and possibly Alabama.
Their offense has been consistently better, too. They have one game <110 adjusted offensive efficiency (108.9 versus Notre Dame) while we've got two (clunker offensive games against MVSU and IUI... I know those teams suck but the model wants you to score 90-100+ on them not 83 and 87).
It is a sample size thing, Houston having had a more challenging schedule, and Houston having more thoroughly beat up cupcakes like Jackson St. compared to the Cyclones versus their cupcakes.
Obviously by mid-January with part of the Big 12 schedule done we'll know who is for real.
I think we're still going to be a team that wants to lock down our opponents, but the rotations among the new players are just too loose right now. Luckily we have enough firepower to outscore until that rounds into shape.
Hopefully -- things do seem different on some level this year, though.
The past three years felt like the same software (clunky offense buttressed by the defensive intensity of the team overall and the "no middle" / "trap everything" scheme) run on progressively better hardware each year (e.g., upgraded overall roster talent and experience and progression from returners).
This team hasn't been winning the same way. It is outscoring teams (e.g., Dayton and Colorado) while playing passable defense but definitely not defense up to the standards of the past three years. Marquette kept themselves in the game with crisp passing that easily overstretched our defense and ruined the rotations and drilled the open threes it produced. There was far less of that the last few years because our defense was such a bother and produced so many turnovers before a team could even run a clean set like that one.
Yep, and most of it has to be filtered through the fact that we've played a few really talented offensive teams already
This last paragraph is what scares me about the Iowa matchup. They can light it up if they can do anything. We are really going to need some better perimeter defense. I still think we are helping a bit too much on D, but I'm definitely no expert.
Obviously the threat Iowa posses is the ability to get hot and put up points in a hurry. Our offense is better this year and that should help us keep pace if they hit a hot streak, as their defense is still pretty suspect.
One stat that sticks out to me that plays huge in our favor is the TO%. Iowa's teams the last few years have taken great care of the basketball generally...
2021 - 13.3% (#1 nationally)
2022 - 13.0% (#3)
2023 - 14.0% (#8)
2024 - 13.2% (#5)
This year, they are at 15.4% (#72) and defensively we're turning teams over at 22.5% (#24 best). The only team they've played so far close to that is Utah State (21.5%, #50) who beat them and forced 16 turnovers. Last year's Cy-hawk game we forced 19 turnovers and scored 25 points off turnovers. Even if our defense hasn't been to our expectations, we're going to be well positioned to force a lot of turnovers and score in transition.
Our inside presence this season will hurt teams like Iowa who has no size and strength inside to compete with our bigs
Houston is kind of similar to ISU early last season (except with better losses). They've absolutely destroyed their three bad opponents, with three Barttorvik game scores of 100 against Jackson St., Louisiana, and Hofstra--essentially "perfect" games. For context, there were only five game scores of 100 across all of college basketball last season and Iowa State had two of those.
I know the Iowa/Iowa State series is strange and home court is enormous...with that said...Id be extremely surprised if we dont overwhelm them. I suspect our guards will apply heavy pressure and dare their guards to penetrate. Run them off the 3 point line at all costs. Their backcourt is full of shooters with no top tier athleticism/quickness. Jackson/Jefferson should have an enormous nignt as Iowas frontcourt is extremely thin both literally and figuratively. They also have no rim protection. Gilbert/Lipsey/Jones will get downhill to the bucket w ease all night.
Vegas will set this point spread right around 5. Like I said, strange series and hard to win rivalry games on the road. Really like this matchup for the Clones though.
Vegas will set this point spread right around 5. Like I said, strange series and hard to win rivalry games on the road. Really like this matchup for the Clones though.
The key here is fouls. If the refs stay out of it, we'll be fine. If not........
Anyone else curious in regards to the true frosh Indrusaitis getting minutes over Watson? I know Indrusaitis was a highly heralded recruit and has a ton of potential...but...the moment seemed really big for him in that Marquette game. I thought Watson was playing the best basketball of his career late in the year last season. Watson is an elite defender/rebounder. Knows his role on offense. Fully trust TJ. Im sure Indrusaitis will settle im as the year goes along.
It sounds like Watson is hurt a little bit and that is what kept him out in Maui.
Watson will play minutes in league play.
Had not heard that. Good to hear! Like I said, Indrusaitis has a ton of potential. Suppose I was a bit surprised he had jumped Watson though.
Torvik has us finishing like this right now...
At a #2 seed and in a position to fight for a #1 seed. Finishing the non-con with one loss and that one loss coming on a tip-in last-second shot against the #1 team in the country in the polls and the computers...
Not bad. Would love another shot at Auburn in San Antonio.
Force nothing but wins through the end of the calendar year...
Marginal improvement fighting for that #1 seed. I imagine much about that seed line is going to come down to who (Houston, Kansas, ISU, etc.) ends up winning the Big 12 regular season. I know there's no "automatic" #1 for winning the conference, but it basically puts you in position for one.
By the way, Iowa is very much a bubble team right now...
They're a flawed team (obviously) but good enough to make the NCAA tournament if a few games go their way. The game on Thursday night is objectively a huge opportunity for them to notch a Q1 win that is going to age very well even outside of the usual this game being their Super Bowl.
Force a win for the Herkies and their position definitely improves...
Gotta play well for this one.
