2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

Letterkenny

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Torvik is projecting 22-7 but doesn't count the two Maui games where we don't yet know the opponent. So, if you fold those two games in there at a 1-1 assumption, then you land here...

23-8 (14-6)

View attachment 137376

We're right on the ragged edge of a #1 seed right now...

View attachment 137377

I don't think three Big 12 teams are going to be #1s, though. Maybe two. Not three.

Locations "draft" if the above holds for fun...

Cleveland, OH = Alabama / Creighton
Denver, CO = Texas A&M / Arizona
Lexington, KY = Auburn / Tennessee
Milwaukee, WI = Iowa State / Texas
Providence, RI = UConn / Purdue
Raleigh, NC = Duke / North Carolina
Seattle, WA = St. John's / Baylor
Wichita, KS = Houston / Kansas
Is Mississippi Valley State the worst team in the country?
 

Sigmapolis

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Is Mississippi Valley State the worst team in the country?

Just missed it but might end up down there depending on how the season goes.

1730758680710.png

We play...

#363 Mississippi Valley St.
#354 IU Indy

MAC team Buffalo making a cameo in the ignoble bottom ten.

RIP to IUPUI ("Ooh-Eee-Puh-Eee")
 
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ebState

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I'm glad there's screen grabs of where Baylor was before last night. They fell to 26th at KP and 25 at Torvik.
 
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CascadeClone

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Is Mississippi Valley State the worst team in the country?
I think they will be OK (for what they are) by year end. They hustled and their guards looked super quick to me. Teams like that win some games. They won't be 1-30 anyway.
 
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Sigmapolis

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Team Rankings never emailed me about the game lost night.

Odd. I'll figure that out sometime.

Not much change after the game last night...

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The numbers actually went down slightly for missing the "spread" on MVSU by roughly five.

I think all of us know not to read too much into such changes before the Auburn game.
 
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CloniesForLife

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I was impressed by UMKC. You could tell when they hit the wall in the 2nd half but they competed well. I wouldn't be surprised if they win the Summit this year
They were very disciplined in executing in the first half and getting some good looks and keeping it tight. Then we clamped down and once they got down and had to start pushing more it was game over
 

1UNI2ISU

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Marvin Menzies has won a lot of games in his life. It's not a huge surprise they played well.

I also hope this helps the people that don't follow low and mid major basketball to realize there are huge differences. KC is KenPom206 today. Those 100 spots make a huge difference and you'd see another huge difference between 206 and 106.

Everything below the P? level is not the same.
 

Sigmapolis

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Marvin Menzies has won a lot of games in his life. It's not a huge surprise they played well.

I also hope this helps the people that don't follow low and mid major basketball to realize there are huge differences. KC is KenPom206 today. Those 100 spots make a huge difference and you'd see another huge difference between 206 and 106.

Everything below the P? level is not the same.

Current Torvik rankings of the non-P5 teams on the schedule...

#182 UMKC
#285 Nebraska Omaha
#316 Morgan St.
#325 Jackson St.
#348 IU Indy
#363 Mississippi Valley St.

Compared to last season...

#253 Idaho St.
#256 Green Bay
#262 Grambling St.
#280 New Hampshire
#320 Eastern Illinois
#339 Florida A&M
#342 Prairie View A&M
#354 Lindenwood

(Two fewer this year because of two more Big 12 games.)

UMKC is by far the best "cupcake" we've seen the past 12 months.

Obviously they were still outmatched against a high-level Big 12 team, but they looked and played like somebody that should be scary against their peers competing for an AQ.
 

bawbie

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Current Torvik rankings of the non-P5 teams on the schedule...

#182 UMKC
#285 Nebraska Omaha
#316 Morgan St.
#325 Jackson St.
#348 IU Indy
#363 Mississippi Valley St.

Compared to last season...

#253 Idaho St.
#256 Green Bay
#262 Grambling St.
#280 New Hampshire
#320 Eastern Illinois
#339 Florida A&M
#342 Prairie View A&M
#354 Lindenwood

(Two fewer this year because of two more Big 12 games.)

UMKC is by far the best "cupcake" we've seen the past 12 months.

Obviously they were still outmatched against a high-level Big 12 team, but they looked and played like somebody that should be scary against their peers competing for an AQ.
I think Green Bay was bottom 10 when we played them last year, and then rose 100 spots after that. After watching that game last night, I think IU Indy could do the same this year (assuming they stay healthy) - they have a lot of really good pieces that have not played D1 ball before, so the early season analytics don't have much to go on