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2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

Sigmapolis

Sigmapolis

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C-Willy and @brentblum keep emphasizing being >#50 in both offensive rating and defensive rating is essentially a prerequisite to be a contender for the national title. So, if you filter the Torvik rankings right based on those criteria, then one of the following teams will be your national champion in two months...

ACC
---
Duke
North Carolina
Wake Forest

American
---
SMU

BIG 12
---
Houston
Iowa St.
Kansas
Texas

BIG EAST
---
Connecticut
Creighton
Marquette
St. John's

BIG TEN
---
Illinois
Michigan St.
Nebraska
Purdue
Wisconsin

MWC
---
Colorado St.
New Mexico

SEC
---
Auburn
Tennessee

PAC-12
---
Arizona

WCC
---
Gonzaga
St. Mary's
 
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dahliaclone

dahliaclone

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Mar 4, 2007
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Sigmapolis said:
C-Willy and @brentblum keep emphasizing being >#50 in both offensive rating and defensive rating is essentially a prerequisite to be a contender for the national title. So, if you filter the Torvik rankings right based on those criteria, then one of the following teams will be your national champion in two months...

ACC
---
Duke
North Carolina
Wake Forest

American
---
SMU

BIG 12
---
Houston
Iowa St.
Kansas
Texas

BIG EAST
---
Connecticut
Creighton
Marquette
St. John's

BIG TEN
---
Illinois
Michigan St.
Nebraska
Purdue
Wisconsin

MWC
---
Colorado St.
New Mexico

SEC
---
Auburn
Tennessee

PAC-12
---
Arizona

WCC
---
Gonzaga
St. Mary's
Click to expand...
Good stuff. Several have no shot at winning it all though IMO.
 
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N

NWICY

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Sep 2, 2012
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VeloClone said:
I hesitate to say this but one team who could do the most for ISU would be for K State to win an effing game for a change. They sit at NET 77. If they would move up just two spots to 75 the win in Ames would move up from a Q3 to Q2b and the future game in Manahattan would move up from a Q2a to Q1b.

That would be great for ISU's resume but it is so damned enjoyable watching the **** show in Manhattan.
Click to expand...

I'll take the **** show. I think we are OK without the help of the mildcats.
 
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NorthCyd

NorthCyd

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Sigmapolis said:
C-Willy and @brentblum keep emphasizing being >#50 in both offensive rating and defensive rating is essentially a prerequisite to be a contender for the national title. So, if you filter the Torvik rankings right based on those criteria, then one of the following teams will be your national champion in two months...

ACC
---
Duke
North Carolina
Wake Forest

American
---
SMU

BIG 12
---
Houston
Iowa St.
Kansas
Texas

BIG EAST
---
Connecticut
Creighton
Marquette
St. John's

BIG TEN
---
Illinois
Michigan St.
Nebraska
Purdue
Wisconsin

MWC
---
Colorado St.
New Mexico

SEC
---
Auburn
Tennessee

PAC-12
---
Arizona

WCC
---
Gonzaga
St. Mary's
Click to expand...
I would modify it to select teams that are elite in one category. Take your pick whatever elite is, top 10.... top 5. ISU shows up in either one. :D
 
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D

danvillecyclone

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Dec 8, 2011
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40/25 club:

UConn
Houston
Purdue
Arizona
Tennessee
Auburn
Iowa State
Duke
North Carolina
Creighton
Marquette
Michigan State


Notables left out:
Illinois
Baylor
BYU
Kansas
Kentucky
 
alarson

alarson

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danvillecyclone said:
Forgive me as I’m not clear what rankings are being discussed above…
But as KenPom goes the threshold is:

40 for Offense
25 for Defense

And we are currently at 40 for Offense

Pretty sure that’s for the last 22 years or so.
Click to expand...

That's a commonly quoted metric for champions, you are correct on that. However I believe that is based on post-tournament ratings. Most champions are going to move up in the kenpom ratings as the tournament goes on.

But as much as this is quoted, your odds go way up if you're on the higher end of things (which seems obvious). The vast majority of champions the last ~20 years have finished top 10 in both categories.
 
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Sigmapolis

Sigmapolis

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alarson said:
I'd guess while you need to be minimum top 50 in both, you also need to be at least top 25 in one.
Click to expand...

Arizona
Auburn
Connecticut
Creighton
Duke
Gonzaga
Houston
Iowa St.
Kansas
Marquette
Michigan St.
New Mexico
North Carolina
Purdue
Tennessee
Texas
Wisconsin

UNIQUE: Gonzaga, New Mexico, Wisconsin

peteypie said:
I would narrow it down to top 40 in both.
Click to expand...

Arizona
Auburn
Connecticut
Creighton
Duke
Houston
Iowa St.
Kansas
Marquette
Michigan St.
North Carolina
Purdue
St. John's
St. Mary's
Tennessee
Texas
Wake Forest

UNIQUE: St. John's, St. Mary's, Wake Forest

Everybody else is 2/2 here...

Arizona
Auburn
Connecticut
Creighton
Duke
Houston
Iowa St.
Kansas
Marquette
Michigan St.
North Carolina
Purdue
Tennessee
Texas
 
jcf817

jcf817

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Mar 2, 2023
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North Carolina
alarson said:
That's a commonly quoted metric for champions, you are correct on that. However I believe that is based on post-tournament ratings. Most champions are going to move up in the kenpom ratings as the tournament goes on.

But as much as this is quoted, your odds go way up if you're on the higher end of things (which seems obvious). The vast majority of champions the last ~20 years have finished top 10 in both categories.
Click to expand...
Any idea if metrics are available for the end of the regular season going back that far? It would be more informative to know where the championship teams were before conference tournament play started.
 
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Sigmapolis

Sigmapolis

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jcf817 said:
Any idea if metrics are available for the end of the regular season going back that far? It would be more informative to know where the championship teams were before conference tournament play started.
Click to expand...

You can query Torvik for specific date ranges.

That would take a good amount of work to analyze, though.
 
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CascadeClone

CascadeClone

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Filtering via metrics is good, but you have to add some other factors to it as well.
  • Momentum - are they hot, or fading?
  • Location - do they have to play another team in their backyard?
  • Coaching - plus or minus?
Here's your "don't pick them too far" list right here:
Zona, Purdont, Tenn, TCU, Illinois, Marquette. You've been warned!

1708703064485.png
 
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cyfan92

cyfan92

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Sep 20, 2011
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CascadeClone said:
Filtering via metrics is good, but you have to add some other factors to it as well.
  • Momentum - are they hot, or fading?
  • Location - do they have to play another team in their backyard?
  • Coaching - plus or minus?
Here's your "don't pick them too far" list right here:
Zona, Purdont, Tenn, TCU, Illinois, Marquette. You've been warned!

View attachment 124457
Click to expand...

Can you please share the Torvik link to that?
 
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