Disagreed only because it gives us all more to talk about. I watch the games and wait till March. The only thing I know for sure is there are a lot of good games in the B12 every weekend and weekdays and they are fun to watch.
2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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They are ranked high because of their good non con. They beat Kentucky, UCONN and Tennessee.KU is ranked high by humans because of Bill Self and their history. Also noting that they are tied for 6th in the country with a record of 4-2 against Q1 opponents.
Here is everyone ballot to see who the biggest idiots are:
Kansas Jayhawks Basketball at College Poll Tracker
collegepolltracker.com
Our friend Chad from the Register has them #6 in his latest AP ballot.. I don't blame him for his poor effort, he's conditioned to watching Iowa and the B1G all year... If you went from that to watching KU, you'd also think they are elite.
They have weaknesses the biggest one being the bench but if this Furphy emergence is real, I don't think anyone would want to play them in the tournament when bench isn't as important because looking at them since Furphy has started they have the most offensively efficient starting 5 in the country.
It seems KU has a stretch in a lot of years where they drop some games you don't expect and don't look that great but Self is really good at tinkering with lineups and finding what works best for the team he has and they usually start improving.
I think they likely finish second though because I can't see anyone knocking out Houston from #1.
He was everywhere in that last game. I still think he makes their defense suspect, but he's a weapon on the other end.
A phrase that would have sounded bizarre a few years ago...
"Houston knocks off BYU in Provo to take a commanding lead in the Big 12 race."
But here we are. I wonder what we would have speculated had happened if we heard that.
"Houston knocks off BYU in Provo to take a commanding lead in the Big 12 race."
But here we are. I wonder what we would have speculated had happened if we heard that.
With ISU at second best odds would have also sounded weird a few years ago.
And Tech with the third on its *second* coach after Beard.
Is the only 'auto-bid' path via conference tourney champ?
Yes, but at 20+ wins while playing in Big 12 you will be guaranteed a spot.
Yes. That's effectively the model's probability for you winning the conference tournament.
That's not very relevant for Iowa State -- sure I'd love to win it in KC but we're much more likely to be in line for an at-large bid. That stats is more important for low-major teams from one-bid conferences where the conference tournament is functionally a play-in tournament for the NCAA tournament.
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Kenpom has us currently winning at KState 61%. That's honestly a little surprising to me.
Winning it obviously would be amazing but really to me the goal is top 4. Get that double bye.
Since we seem interested in these projections, too...
Definitely in great shape for the double bye in KC.
The model still thinks Houston has a commanding lead for the conference, though.
Gonna need them to stumble or gonna need to pull a monster upset on the road against them.
Not me. KSU is just ok this year. They play hard but they aren't that good. Decent defensive team but horrible offensively. It feels to me like he is trying to recreate the magic of his team last year so he goes out and gets a small PG to replace Nowell and then gets Kaluma to replace Johnson but neither are as good as those two but they are still playing like they are.
Looking at Houston's schedule, I think their biggest danger will come from the following games:
1. @KU
2. @Baylor
3. @Cincinnati
4. @OU
Games that they could lose but probably not:
1. @UT
2. Home vs ISU
3. Home vs KU
If I had to guess, I'd put them at 2-2 in the danger games and 2-1 in the probably nots.
That would put their final record at 13-5 assuming that they take care of the "easy" games (home against KSU, OSU, UT, Cincinnati, @UCF)
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Kaluma is really good. Perry is no where near what Nowell was for them last year though, and they lost Tomlin. Their remaining bigs are pretty bad.
Torvik has them going more like 15-3 or 14-4.
Similar exercise for Iowa State (with Torvik win expectations) --
Currently at (4-2)
95% v. West Virginia
82% v. TCU
81% v. Oklahoma
80% v. Texas Tech
76% v. Kansas
69% @ UCF
67% @ Kansas St.
66% v. BYU
61% @ Cincinnati
57% @ Texas
51% @ Baylor
13% @ Houston
You're favored as of now in every game save one...
15-3 would probably do it, but it requires zero slipups on your part.
