All models are wrong. Some are useful.
I don't think the Torvik model is about projecting lineups or statistical outputs by player next year so much as benchmarking Iowa State relative to its peers in terms of returning productivity, expected development from returning players, and the rough impact the transfers and freshmen might have.
Done in those terms, we look like this (defining "peers" as the Big 12) --
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Looks pretty good! But not a lot of differentiation between Iowa State and Oklahoma.