2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

That looks about right with what the rosters are as of now. Going to be another jumbled mess in the middle. I think the opportunity is certainly there for this ISU team to finish that high.

Tier lists seem to be popular nowadays --

S tier (teams with legitimate win conference/#1 seed/Final Four ambitions)
---
Houston
Kansas

A tier (outside chance at a conference title, high NCAA seed, outside Final Four chance)
---
West Virginia (especially if they land a healthy version of Caleb Grill here)

Big ugly scrum in the middle (teams with a good shot to make the NCAA tournament)

F tier ("at least" one easy game on the schedule for everybody else, try again next year)
---
UCF

 

[CloniesForLife]

Tier lists seem to be popular nowadays --

S tier (teams with legitimate win conference/#1 seed/Final Four ambitions)
---
Houston
Kansas

A tier (outside chance at a conference title, high NCAA seed, outside Final Four chance)
---
West Virginia (especially if they land a healthy version of Caleb Grill here)

Big ugly scrum in the middle (teams with a good shot to make the NCAA tournament)

F tier ("at least" one easy game on the schedule for everybody else, try again next year)
---
UCF

I'd put OU and OSU in between the 2 bottom tiers. Will be interesting to see how they fill out their rosters

 

[Sigmapolis]

I'd put OU and OSU in between the 2 bottom tiers. Will be interesting to see how they fill out their rosters

Things will definitely change depending on how a few stragglers finish rebuilding their rosters. Iowa State had a moderate number of spots to fill but seemed to have filled them pretty early.

 

[Statefan10]

Never watched any of these transfers play but Gilbert seems to be getting way overhyped based on his UNLV stats. Sure UNLV is rated better but they still were not very good. Expecting a 11 ppg UNLV transfer to lead the team in scoring means he either takes a huge leap or we suck. Honestly, I'd rank Gilbert as the 3rd best transfer of the 3... and by a longshot. I might take Omaha or Tamin as the leading scorer purely based off they probably will average 30 mpg, the rest of the squad will be fighting for 15-25 mpg.

Had to do it, sorry.

 

[Cyclones125]

Had to do it, sorry.

Lol, you found the one site high on Gilbert. Having Nembhard that low loses pretty much all credibility.

 

[Statefan10]

Lol, you found the one site high on Gilbert. Having Nembhard that low loses pretty much all credibility.

It's On3... lol it's probably the 2nd or 3rd best recruiting site out there currently.

 

[NENick]

Nembhard is leaving Creighton?!

 

[cyclones500]

Tier lists seem to be popular nowadays --

S tier (teams with legitimate win conference/#1 seed/Final Four ambitions)
---
Houston
Kansas

A tier (outside chance at a conference title, high NCAA seed, outside Final Four chance)
---
West Virginia (especially if they land a healthy version of Caleb Grill here)

Big ugly scrum in the middle (teams with a good shot to make the NCAA tournament)

F tier ("at least" one easy game on the schedule for everybody else, try again next year)
---
UCF

I understand "A" and "F" - what does "S" label designate?

 

[brokenloginagain]

Looks like a George Raveling OOC schedule @ USC.

He was once asked about how he put his easy OOC schedule together, and he quipped: "I look at the computer ranking of all teams and start making calls from the bottom up!

Made me laugh out loud.

Are you sure about that? Did they even have computer rankings in 1985?

I highly doubt there were any coaches using an Apple IIe for scheduling back then when the Internet didn’t exist.

 

[madguy30]

Are you sure about that? Did they even have computer rankings in 1985?

I highly doubt there were any coaches using an Apple IIe for scheduling back then when the Internet didn’t exist.

Gonna guess no.

 

[AlaCyclone]

Are you sure about that? Did they even have computer rankings in 1985?

I highly doubt there were any coaches using an Apple IIe for scheduling back then when the Internet didn’t exist.

Well, he coached at USC through the 1993-4 season.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I understand "A" and "F" - what does "S" label designate?

A+

Super tier

 

[Sigmapolis]

I thought I'd post an update on the Torvik projections now that much of the offseason hubbub has settled. That is not an absolute rule (see Kansas State picking up Arthur Kaluma recently).

However, as of now, Iowa State sits at #50 in the country --



Yes, the projection has Iowa State behind Iowa, Cincinnati, Nebraska, and BYU, though ahead of Oklahoma State. It still shows a team that has an elite defense that struggles to score points.

For context, the #50 team projects as somewhere near or above a bubble team. Here were the squads from last year at or slightly above or below the #50 ranking on Torvik --



The Big 12 is going to be nuts again. Even UCF and the Oklahoma schools have moved up --



And still projecting the scoring to be mostly the Omaha and Tamin show --



I will return to this a time or two before the season to benchmark where we start.

 

[ClonesFTW]

View attachment 113678

I will return to this a time or two before the season to benchmark where we start.

I know this is all just offseason projections for fun and clicks but I would bet a good chunk of change Tre King averages more than 5.3ppg.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I know this is all just offseason projections for fun and clicks but I would bet a good chunk of change Tre King averages more than 5.3ppg.

That is by far the most unrealistic projection for an individual player. The numbers for everybody else look relatively reasonable or at least possible, though, at least at this point.

 

[CyPunch]

Those projections are higher on Kansas State and especially Texas Tech than I am

 

[CyPunch]

I'll take the over on Keshon Gilbert at 9.7 ppg and over on Tre King at 5.3 ppg. I think Gilbert leads us in scoring.

If Omaha averages 14 ppg he might be a top 5 pick. That seems optimistic.

 

[cyclones500]

Those projections are higher on Kansas State and especially Texas Tech than I am

Agree. I would put Iowa State above at least one of those two (probably Tech if I had to coin-flip) and above both BYU and Cincinnati. I could see Oklahoma State being a sort of wildcard.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Not a computer projection but didn't want to start a new thread. Rothstein gave his projections for the season.

 

[Statefan10]

Not a computer projection but didn't want to start a new thread. Rothstein gave his projections for the season.

I, for one, cannot wait to see Tre King and the 3 and Milan at the 5 as Jon states. Lol