Gonzaga Rumors/Vote

[exCyDing]

I am not a fan of taking just Gonzaga.

But if the day comes for the Big12 to add schools like UA, ASU, UU, CU, UW and UO then adding Gonzaga as a member of the Big12 makes sense.

As fans we are looking at what happens on the field/court and what a school brings. Yormark has to consider that, but also the financial aspect. Also he's not only looking at what the Big12 needs to look like in 2025 but also have a vision of what it should look like in 2030 or 2035. His job is to turn the Big12 from the early 1960's version of the AFL into the 1970's version of the AFC.

Just because the SEC conference dominates today, doesn't mean that has to be the case in 5 or 10 years. Expanding the Big12 footprint to include FL, OH and UT was huge! The potential to add Pac12 schools would further cement the Big12's presence (and hopefully dominance) west of the Mississippi. And hopefully allows the Big12 to narrow the TV Rights gap between the Big12 and SEC/Big10 when the next round of negotiations occurs around 2030.

IMO if the media rights values of the Big12 & Pac12 are close, doesn't it make sense for the Big12 to merge with all (or most) of the Pac10? It doesn't hurt the NFL to have equal revenue sharing and two conferences- AFC and NFC. Why couldn't Yormark create a super "league" comprised of 2 conferences, the Big12 and Pac10?

I think you're on the right track here, but the key date is really 2032 or so. That's when ACC schools can realistically begin to talk about what happens after 2035.

B12/PAC full merger talks happened last summer, but didn't get very far when it became apparent that the valuations didn't work out. That means someone would be taking a haircut and it stands to reason it wasn't the PAC schools. After all, on conference re-upped their contract early and another conference is still dilly-dallying on theirs.

The B12 needs to be in a position to fend off the ACC's attempts to backfill after the B10/SEC take their picks. Ideally, the B12 would be able to pick a few from the remainders, but must be in the stronger position to do that. Until then, taking any school that has potential, but falls under the B12s average is a non-starter.

Gonzaga falls into as well. First, I don't think they come alone, they're going to need to come in with at least 1 more BB-only member. Who is that? Combined, what do they bring to the table? What's the worst case scenario of either or both fall off in the next decade?

IMO, BB-only members probably aren't worth the risk/reward at this juncture.

 

[CoKane]

Go ahead and hate me. The houston UCF and Cincinnati adds are questionable. Should have waited and hit the 4 corners hard.

Ok I will. This is dumb for 2 reasons

1. The 4 Corner schools wouldn't even be considering us if we didn't add to show stability
2. How the **** was anyone supposed to know that USC and UCLA were bolting a year in advance?

 

[isucy86]

I think you're on the right track here, but the key date is really 2032 or so. That's when ACC schools can realistically begin to talk about what happens after 2035.

B12/PAC full merger talks happened last summer, but didn't get very far when it became apparent that the valuations didn't work out. That means someone would be taking a haircut and it stands to reason it wasn't the PAC schools. After all, on conference re-upped their contract early and another conference is still dilly-dallying on theirs.

The B12 needs to be in a position to fend off the ACC's attempts to backfill after the B10/SEC take their picks. Ideally, the B12 would be able to pick a few from the remainders, but must be in the stronger position to do that. Until then, taking any school that has potential, but falls under the B12s average is a non-starter.

Gonzaga falls into as well. First, I don't think they come alone, they're going to need to come in with at least 1 more BB-only member. Who is that? Combined, what do they bring to the table? What's the worst case scenario of either or both fall off in the next decade?

IMO, BB-only members probably aren't worth the risk/reward at this juncture.

The NCAA renewed its NCAA Basketball Tournament deal with CBS/Turner and will increase from $770M to $1.1B annually effective 2025. Does that make Gonzaga and basketball more valuable?

The new deal is up in 2032 and some experts feel CBS/Turner got a sweetheart deal at $1.1B.

So building value for the Big 12 is critical during the 2025-2030 period.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Ok I will. This is dumb for 2 reasons

1. The 4 Corner schools wouldn't even be considering us if we didn't add to show stability
2. How the **** was anyone supposed to know that USC and UCLA were bolting a year in advance?

Bingo. The only possible reasonable question about Big 12 expansion is if they should’ve taken two and stopped instead of taking all four. But they took the four best options. And they needed to take some of them at that time. The four corners thing is asinine.

With the benefit of hindsight, it may have been wiser for the Big 12 to have added BYU and Cincinnati and called it good. But the decision to tack on UCF and Houston was probably the best one at the time.

 

[dirtyninety]

Melissa Click.

 

[Farnsworth]

The NCAA renewed its NCAA Basketball Tournament deal with CBS/Turner and will increase from $770M to $1.1B annually effective 2025. Does that make Gonzaga and basketball more valuable?

The new deal is up in 2032 and some experts feel CBS/Turner got a sweetheart deal at $1.1B.

So building value for the Big 12 is critical during the 2025-2030 period.

That's great that it increased, but how does that affect things at a conference or team level? Does the conference split some of it between all teams and the rest directly to the schools who made it? Do you get more going deep?

I just think Gonzaga going deep a few times isnt really gonna help ISU that much. Maybe bottom feeders, but zags won't get those 1 and 2 seeds every year in the big 12, so they will have tough earlier tourney games.

 

[Stormin]

The NCAA renewed its NCAA Basketball Tournament deal with CBS/Turner and will increase from $770M to $1.1B annually effective 2025. Does that make Gonzaga and basketball more valuable?

The new deal is up in 2032 and some experts feel CBS/Turner got a sweetheart deal at $1.1B.

So building value for the Big 12 is critical during the 2025-2030 period.

No to Gonzaga.

 

[singsing]

I hope not. I liked the home and aways with the ten schools. You watch when the conference expands we're going to get screwed on scheduling. KU away without a trip to Ames. Crap like that. Gonzaga would just make it worse. If they wanna play big12 schools schedule them in the noncon.

 

[exCyDing]

The NCAA renewed its NCAA Basketball Tournament deal with CBS/Turner and will increase from $770M to $1.1B annually effective 2025. Does that make Gonzaga and basketball more valuable?

The new deal is up in 2032 and some experts feel CBS/Turner got a sweetheart deal at $1.1B.

So building value for the Big 12 is critical during the 2025-2030 period.

Wow, $1.1B, that's a lot of money! Except in the grand scheme of things, it's kind of small potatoes.

The NCAA breaks that up into units to disperse to the conferences. Each unit was worth about $340k, so if all the %s of the total contract are the same, it'd be about $500k in the new deal. Each unit is good for 6 years. Each conference gets 1 unit for a team making the field, and 1 more for each win.

Gonzaga has 19 units over the past 6 years (including 2016, skipping 2020). Total, that'd be worth $9.5M. Let's say there's 14 Big 12 schools, so $700k/year/school if the conference doesn't take a cut.

Not too shabby, but...

Would Gonzaga have been a #1 seed 4 times in the past 6 years? Would being a lower seed have altered their performance? Would they have made the field at all in 2016 (11 seed, netted 2 wins)? Would having them in the Big 12 have changed the seeding and performance of other Big 12 schools?

At some point, your self cannibalizing. Think the Big 12 probably has 10 tourney level quality teams this year, but will probably get 7-8 bids. Getting 8 would set a record for highest % of a conference getting teams in the tourney.

So maybe having them in the conference would net everyone an additional $400-$500k for the NCAA tournament. Just for comparison, current B12 members have 99 units; 84 excluding OUT; 107 minus OUT plus Houston, UCF, Cinci and BYU.

The real money is in the media deal. How much of the Big 12's deal is attributable to Basketball? How much would the networks bump up the deal to include Gonzaga plus other teams? How would translate to an increase for everyone else?

 

[MJ271]

I think you have me mistaken for someone else. My other comment was about how they don’t have a football team.

Them having the ability to rest for 2 months gives them an advantage with seeding. That is a fact. Now, that can also be a reason for their post season failure as they aren’t thrown through the ringer like big 12 teams.

You're right, I apologize. I got you confused with CyJack. But I still don't really get your point. Like I pointed out in my original comment, Gonzaga hasn't dramatically underperformed their seed expectations. This article points out that, since 1999, they've underperformed their seed expectations 6 times, overperformed 5 times, and performed to seed level 10 times. The article points out that that compares favorably to Kentucky, and is far, far better than Duke. For a tournament as random as the NCAA tournament is, those numbers seem pretty good.

 

[Clonedogg]

I say UO and UW or bust.

 

[cycloneML]

Ok I will. This is dumb for 2 reasons

1. The 4 Corner schools wouldn't even be considering us if we didn't add to show stability
2. How the **** was anyone supposed to know that USC and UCLA were bolting a year in advance?

I Wonder if you were JPs emissary on the topic. Your passion and visceral comments are glaring. BYU brings cachet. UCF may be a sleeping giant. Adding Cincinnati and Houston is an embarrassment. We’re adding schools named after cities? Is this really happening? It was a weak decision made from a weak position.

 

[CoKane]

I Wonder if you were JPs emissary on the topic. Your passion and visceral comments are glaring. BYU brings cachet. UCF may be a sleeping giant. Adding Cincinnati and Houston is an embarrassment. We’re adding schools named after cities? Is this really happening? It was a weak decision made from a weak position.

Schools names after cities is the weirdest form of gatekeeping I've ever seen. If they were named Texas Bayside and Southwestern Ohio would that be suddenly more palatable to you? If UCF became Orlando University are they a bad add now?

I'm bewildered at how odd this is

 

[isucy86]

Wow, $1.1B, that's a lot of money! Except in the grand scheme of things, it's kind of small potatoes.

The NCAA breaks that up into units to disperse to the conferences. Each unit was worth about $340k, so if all the %s of the total contract are the same, it'd be about $500k in the new deal. Each unit is good for 6 years. Each conference gets 1 unit for a team making the field, and 1 more for each win.

Gonzaga has 19 units over the past 6 years (including 2016, skipping 2020). Total, that'd be worth $9.5M. Let's say there's 14 Big 12 schools, so $700k/year/school if the conference doesn't take a cut.

Not too shabby, but...

Would Gonzaga have been a #1 seed 4 times in the past 6 years? Would being a lower seed have altered their performance? Would they have made the field at all in 2016 (11 seed, netted 2 wins)? Would having them in the Big 12 have changed the seeding and performance of other Big 12 schools?

At some point, your self cannibalizing. Think the Big 12 probably has 10 tourney level quality teams this year, but will probably get 7-8 bids. Getting 8 would set a record for highest % of a conference getting teams in the tourney.

So maybe having them in the conference would net everyone an additional $400-$500k for the NCAA tournament. Just for comparison, current B12 members have 99 units; 84 excluding OUT; 107 minus OUT plus Houston, UCF, Cinci and BYU.

The real money is in the media deal. How much of the Big 12's deal is attributable to Basketball? How much would the networks bump up the deal to include Gonzaga plus other teams? How would translate to an increase for everyone else?

I saw an article last week that mentioned it is an 80/20 FB/BB split for media rights value. But with growth of streaming hoops value could increase.

 

[isucy86]

I hope not. I liked the home and aways with the ten schools. You watch when the conference expands we're going to get screwed on scheduling. KU away without a trip to Ames. Crap like that. Gonzaga would just make it worse. If they wanna play big12 schools schedule them in the noncon.

I understand your concern, but change of mindset. Look at the NFL model. There are 16 teams in each conference and a 17 game schedule:

• 6 games against 3 division rivals
• 6 games against other divisions same Conference (AFC v. AFC)
• 5 games against other Conference (AFC v. NFC)

With a super sized Big12, the key is:

• Playing rivals every year in FB & 2x in hoops. IMO rivalry games should be 40-50% of games.
• Make sure non-rivals are played on a fixed schedule. Personally, I don't feel a 2 yr home/road structure is important. Maybe go home/road yr 1/4, another group of teams yr 2/5 and final group yr 3/6.

With hoops, the conference tournament could become more interesting because your team may not have seen a team it plays before that season.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

I hope not. I liked the home and aways with the ten schools. You watch when the conference expands we're going to get screwed on scheduling. KU away without a trip to Ames. Crap like that. Gonzaga would just make it worse. If they wanna play big12 schools schedule them in the noncon.

The home and home series in basketball will be going away even if Gonzaga is not added when the conference brings in the new teams next year, with or without UT and OU. So, unless we are willing to go to a 22-game conference schedule and the league is not, then it's already been decided.

I am for added Gonzaga, think it would help showcase the league even more, but will be fine if they are not added also.

 

[singsing]

The home and home series in basketball will be going away even if Gonzaga is not added when the conference brings in the new teams next year, with or without UT and OU. So, unless we are willing to go to a 22-game conference schedule and the league is not, then it's already been decided.

I am for added Gonzaga, think it would help showcase the league even more, but will be fine if they are not added also.

I can do math so realize the home and away will go away..Just gives us another game where we won't get any advantage in Scheduling. Gonzaga is a bigger brand in basketball. We'll hit the road and go to Spokane and get UCF at home.

 

[cycloneML]

Schools names after cities is the weirdest form of gatekeeping I've ever seen. If they were named Texas Bayside and Southwestern Ohio would that be suddenly more palatable to you? If UCF became Orlando University are they a bad add now?

I'm bewildered at how odd this is

No it wouldn’t be anymore palatable

 

[Stormin]

Get the California foothold and add St. Mary’s as well, while adding Gonzaga. We can get the elite from the West Coast Conference. Let’s go all in on stupid.

 

[NWICY]

Not a fan of the Gonzaga idea.

There is one idea out there that has been floated that is said to be a possibility. I don't know if there is actually some reality to it or not.

But some believe the idea is to add a few major powers as BB only schools, Gonzaga, Villanova, UConn, StJohns. Some even claim the goal with this is to move the Big12 Tournament to Madison Sq Garden, which I guess I can see it being a great thing for optics, but not great for those that love the location of KC etc.

I am not sure if this makes it better or worse.

That is a half baked plan it would be cool once so people go to NYC but after that it would be way overpriced and inconvenient and look like most other conference tournament games shown on TV being played in 1/4 filled arenas. Wasn't the B1G tourny there a couple of yrs ago with terrible crowds? Their tourney belongs in Indianapolis. The B12 in KC.