Breaking down the UNI Panthers
- Thread starter bsaltyman
- Start date
Feels like it will be a very vanilla, 28-10 or 31-13 type of game.
I'm pretty surprised by that line. Other than a couple exceptions (WVU and KSU last year for example), when Campbell's ISU teams dominate a game, the score usually looks closer than the game. I think 14-20 pt. wins where ISU is in total control the second half seem to be more typical.
My guess is ISU has the game well in hand by the middle of the 3rd quarter, but it isn't some 30+ point margin.
My guess is ISU has the game well in hand by the middle of the 3rd quarter, but it isn't some 30+ point margin.
I think you have to give him a couple designed runs per game just to keep the defense honest. Otherwise, they can just pin their ears back and come at him all game without worrying about him burning them for it. Definitely not a lot, as we don't want him hurt, but just enough.
After this week, I agree. I was just mentioning this game. We need to be able to beat an FCS without opening everything up.
I looked up some notes and rewatched the highlights from the 2019 game, and I forgot how they dared Purdy to run all day and left lanes all over the field, and it was obvious he had been instructed not to leave the pocket. We could have won so much more comfortably if we let Purdy run 8-10 times that game.
I remember that as well. We were all screaming for him to run and he just stayed in the pocket. Cost us dearly.
Getting very close to a sell out. Less than when they initially posted this tweet...
I tend to agree with this. UNI is alway scrappy, and it seems like ISU can never get any traction against what they are doing. Hopefully this year ISU will be that physical team that dominates the LOS on both sides and just grinds it out. I don't look for CMC to do a lot of passing or a lot of blitzing. Personally I would like to see Purdy take a shot down field in the first series, just to give the safeties something to think about.
Covid killed us v. Louisiana but you don't hear about it because Campbell doesn't offer or accept excuses.
If 'the best version of one's self' shows up on any/every play, I think the margin is bigger. But, there's always that 'doubt' thing.
Here's a breakdown on UNI. I'll try (probably unsuccessfully) to be brief
First, I wouldn't put much in to what happened in the spring. The OC left for a job with the Packers a day before the first game, due to COVID precautions they were never able to practice more than 25 bodies at a time and lost over 200 starts to COVID. It was a year totally in a vacuum and they've moved on as though it didn't happen..
As has been the case for the last decade or so, the defense is as good as you get at the FCS level and is really fast and physical. The offense has talent everywhere but the quarterback position is totally in flux and hasn't at all been consistent.
Offense--
QB- Appears to be a two way battle between returning starter Will McElvain (5-11, 185) and Michigan State transfer Theo Day (6-5, 235). McElvain is the better athlete but isn't an accurate thrower and isn't patient in the pocket. The game he had in Ames in 2019 is head and shoulders the best game he's ever played. Day has a big arm and is a true pro-style quarterback. He was a 4 star recruit out of high school and did see the field in limited capacity at Michigan State. He was a casualty of the coaching change there. I expect McElvain to be the guy because Farley jsut can't quit him.
RB- There's a nice mix of youth and experience but no true stand out. Should be a 'by committee' situation that goes as the offensive line goes. Should see action from 4 backs:
32 Tyler Hoosman (6-0 215) (Plainfield, IL)
7 Dom Williams (5-10 200) (Kansas Transfer)
36 Bradrick Shaw (6-1 225) (Cal Transfer
31 Kendall Robinson (6-0 220) (Waterloo East)
WR- Deep, talented group with lots of experience but can anybody get the ball to them?
80 Isaiah Weston (Jr, 6-4 210) (Albertville, MN)
17 Logan Wolf (So, 6-5 200) (Cedar Falls)
1 Deion McShane (Jr, 5-6 175) (Freeport, IL)
4 Quan Hampton (Sr, 5-10 180) (Kansas Transfer)
13 Tysen Kershaw (Fr, 6-3 185) (Fort Dodge)
82 Sergio Morency (True Fr, 6-2 180) (Naples, FL)
TE- Not a feature in the offense. Used more as an extra tackle. 84 Jayden Scott (So, 6-5 255) (Omaha) and 42 Kyle Fortenbury (Grad, 6-4 245) (Opelika, AL) will get most of the snaps there.
OL- Big and physical but not well coached or schemed at times. New OL coach brought in so there is some optimism that its better. Trevor Penning will be drafted and is the definite standout of the bunch
LT- 70 Trevor Penning (RS Jr, 6-7 325) (Clear Lake)
LG- 75 Jared Penning (RS Fr, 6-6 338) (Clear Lake)
C- 61 Chase Arends (RS So, 6-1 300) (Dike)
or 66 Erik Sorenson (RS Jr, 6-6, 320) (Waukee)
RG- 72 Justin Peine (RS Jr, 6-6 329) (Parker, KS)
or 78 Matt VanderSlice (Sr, 6-8 335) (Overland Park, KS)
RT- 76 Antoine Frazier (Grad, 6-6, 315) (Huffman, TX) (Kansas Transfer)
Defense (4-2-5 Hybrid)--
DT- Led by Valley DPOY DT 44 Jared Brinkman (Sr, 6-2, 290) (Iowa City). Brinkman is a disrupter that is very good against the run and led the team in sacks last year. 99 Khristian Boyd (RS So, 6-4, 300) (Blue Springs, MO) and 94 Tim Butcher (Sr, 6-2 300) (Palmer, IA) will handle the other tackle. Boyd is the better pass rusher and athlete, Butcher is the better run stopper
DE- UNI tends to look for length and athleticism at the end spot and tends to look for pass rushers over run stoppers. Should see four guys get the majority of the snaps
93 Caden Houghtelling (So, 6-5 255) (Cambridge, NE)
91 Brawntae Wells (Sr, 6-4 300) (Dowling)
8 Devin Rice (RS So, 6-3 255) (Liberty, MO)
96 Cannon Butler (RS Fr, 6-7 215) (Waterloo Columbus)
LB- Three All Conference guys for two spots. Very good group though Flater will be limited as he had shoulder surgery after the first game of the spring.
22 Bryce Flater (RS Jr, 6-1 230) (Grundy Center)
41 Spencer Cuvelier (RS Sr, 6-3 235) (Cresco)
47 Riley Van Wyhe (RS Jr, 6-3 230) (Rock Rapids)
Hybrid- Swing safety/LB hybrid that will line up all over the place
40 Alfonso Lambert (RS Sr, 6-1 220) (Rockford, IL)-Running Downs
10 Eric Mooney (So, 6-3 190) (West Dundee, IL)- Passing Downs
37 Jace Andregg (RS Fr, 6-3 215) (Solon)
S- Not the most athletic group but they're physical and experienced and do a nice job against the run. Sapp gets an NFL look if he runs well enough.
9 Benny Sapp III (Jr, 6-1 205) (Ft Lauderdale, FL) (Minnesota Transfer)
5 Korby Sander (RS Jr, 6-1 215) (Belmond-Klemme)
0 Jevon Brekke (Jr, 6-3 200) (Minneapolis De La Salle)
CB-Another real strength of the defense. Omar Brown was national defensive freshman of the year two years ago and then didn't get many honors last year because nobody threw at him (6 balls all spring and he intercepted 2 of them). He's a draft pick eventually and is probably UNIs most talented defensive player overall.
24 Omar Brown (So, 6-1 200) (Minneapolis North)
27 Austin Evans (RS Sr, 6-1 190) (Kansas City Archbishop O'Hara)
3 Demarcus Governor (So, 5-11 185) (Plant City, FL)
34 Edwin Dearman (So, 5-11 200) (Houston, TX)
K/P- You all saw what Cook could do the last time UNI played in Ames. Struggled a little in the spring outdoors but I'm guessing there won't be snow piled on the sidelines in a couple weeks
K 97 Matthew Cook (So, 5-11 180) (Cedar Falls)
P 63 Nate Murphy (RS Jr, 6-1 175) (West Des Moines Valley)
As I said above, this game is somewhere between 31-14 and 42-6 depending on what UNI can do on offense. The defense is legit and can hang as long as they aren't on the field all day. UNI isn't going to back down so I think it's the perfect FCS game for Iowa State. A team like this needs to have somebody that isn't going to roll over and take the check and we know UNI won't do that.
My prediction--Iowa State 38-10. Competitive for 2 and a half quarters, something like 14-3 at halftime and then Iowa State's depth and the fact UNIs defense is on the field too much lets Iowa State cruise in the 4th.
UNI's first depth chart is out.
No real surprises, pretty much everything I gave you up thread is how it reads. One small change, they've shifted Antoine Frazier inside to RG (6-5 305) and Matt VanderSlice starts at RT (6-8 340).
@JStanz51, how can they be 7-0 in those games when one of the seven hasn't been played yet? Do you know something we don't know?
That 2019 game was a coulda woulda game. Wasn't that Purdy fumble returned for a TD the wrong call? The ball went 15 yards forward, how does that happen if his arm isn't moving forward and the UNI guy hit his arm from the front? ISU played way too conservative causing a close game that shouldn't have been.
UNI sets that trap every time we play against them. Messingham fell for it. Manning didn't. But he probably should have at least tried running a little bit to keep them honest. It's a fine line to walk.
Yeah, the entire announcing crew including the studio officiating expert were positive that was a forward pass.
exactly. IMO people who think losing to UNI is impossible either are drinking some delicious Kool aide or haven’t been around very long. By the way, I hope that they are 1000% right.
