So... How Will the Game go?

Gunnerclone

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With all of the “boring” and “low scoring” talk from everywhere (fans and media) I fully expect to see the winner get in to the upper 20’s/low30’s. O/U is 47. Doubt Vegas misses on the under by 10+ points. Could see 31-17, 28-24, 35-31. You just never know in this game.
 
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BillBrasky4Cy

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A lot of it depends on Iowa’s game plan defensively, IMO. If Iowa sits in their base 4-3 and gives plenty of cushion, Iowa State is going to dink and dunk their way downfield and chew up time of possession. At that point, it becomes a matter of whether Iowa State scores TDs or whether Iowa’s defense can hold them to FG attempts.

What I would like to see Iowa do is be aggressive on defense- play a lot of press coverage and try to make Iowa State make throws down the field. I don’t think Iowa State’s offensive personnel is well equipped to do that against Iowa’s defense.

As thin as Iowa's secondary is I think this would be a HUGE mistake and I also think you are understating our WR's.
 
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jbindm

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A lot of it depends on Iowa’s game plan defensively, IMO. If Iowa sits in their base 4-3 and gives plenty of cushion, Iowa State is going to dink and dunk their way downfield and chew up time of possession. At that point, it becomes a matter of whether Iowa State scores TDs or whether Iowa’s defense can hold them to FG attempts.

What I would like to see Iowa do is be aggressive on defense- play a lot of press coverage and try to make Iowa State make throws down the field. I don’t think Iowa State’s offensive personnel is well equipped to do that against Iowa’s defense.

Do they have enough healthy bodies to do that, though? I thought I heard they were pretty beat up in the secondary this week.
 

HOU_Blue

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As thin as Iowa's secondary is I think this would be a HUGE mistake and I also think you are understating our WR's.

It’s more a bet against your OL and Purdy, to be honest. I don’t think the OL can consistently block Iowa’s DL on long passing plays, which should lead to sacks, holding penalties, and Purdy forcing some bad throws. I also don’t think Purdy has proven that he can consistently make accurate throws downfield to receivers that aren’t Hakeem Butler.

What Purdy has proven is that he is super accurate in the short passing game. I’d rather take my chances with the vertical passing game than watch Jones catch 10 passes on a drag route with a LB covering him.
 

Statefan10

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A lot of it depends on Iowa’s game plan defensively, IMO. If Iowa sits in their base 4-3 and gives plenty of cushion, Iowa State is going to dink and dunk their way downfield and chew up time of possession. At that point, it becomes a matter of whether Iowa State scores TDs or whether Iowa’s defense can hold them to FG attempts.

What I would like to see Iowa do is be aggressive on defense- play a lot of press coverage and try to make Iowa State make throws down the field. I don’t think Iowa State’s offensive personnel is well equipped to do that against Iowa’s defense.
This is definitely TBD if Iowa State has the same ability to go deep as they did last year, however Iowa having some injuries in their DB's might allow Iowa State to go deep more than they would if Iowa was fully healthy.
 

moores2

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1st and 14 instead of 1st and 9 matters. That's a 55% increase. It puts the offense at a big disadvantage. And that's not taking into account that the running game was getting in a rhythm. The penalty gave the UNI defense a breather. Or the fact that the penalty was a bizarre call that gave no advantage to Iowa State. It wasn't a penalty that came from poor play.

I know you have a narrative that's really special to you this week, but "less of a drive killer than a hold on our side of the field"? Give me a break.

Plus the field has shrunk in the red zone. Takes away the over the top threat on a 1st and long scenario. I have no doubt in my mind with the way that drive was going that we were going to score a touchdown. Instead we had to settle for a field goal.

Plus the penalty basically gave UNI a timeout. We were running hurry up going into that run, I have no doubt we would have been scrambling up to the line again on 1st and 9. Instead we have to make a substitution to try to overcome a 1st and 15.
 

Statefan10

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It’s more a bet against your OL and Purdy, to be honest. I don’t think the OL can consistently block Iowa’s DL on long passing plays, which should lead to sacks, holding penalties, and Purdy forcing some bad throws. I also don’t think Purdy has proven that he can consistently make accurate throws downfield to receivers that aren’t Hakeem Butler.

What Purdy has proven is that he is super accurate in the short passing game. I’d rather take my chances with the vertical passing game than watch Jones catch 10 passes on a drag route with a LB covering him.
Purdy had one of the best completion percentages on deep passes in the nation last year. If his receivers can get separation deep, he'll put it on them.
 

BillBrasky4Cy

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It’s more a bet against your OL and Purdy, to be honest. I don’t think the OL can consistently block Iowa’s DL on long passing plays, which should lead to sacks, holding penalties, and Purdy forcing some bad throws. I also don’t think Purdy has proven that he can consistently make accurate throws downfield to receivers that aren’t Hakeem Butler.

What Purdy has proven is that he is super accurate in the short passing game. I’d rather take my chances with the vertical passing game than watch Jones catch 10 passes on a drag route with a LB covering him.

Purdy improvising while Iowa's D is in press coverage or man to man would be welcomed TBO.
 
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BillBrasky4Cy

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Purdy had one of the best completion percentages on deep passes in the nation last year. If his receivers can get separation deep, he'll put it on them.

There is a huge difference between being able to make a play down field and Butler shedding tacklers for a TD. We definitely have the guys to open it up if Iowa plays man.
 

Statefan10

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There is a huge difference between being able to make a play down field and Butler shedding tacklers for a TD. We definitely have the guys to open it up if Iowa plays man.
Absolutely. Purdy is a very accurate down field QB, it just so happens that he had one of the best deep ball receivers in the nation to throw to last year. It's the coaches job to scheme up the play to get those guys open, and then the receivers job to actually do it. If both things happen, Purdy will give them a great opportunity to make the play.
 
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moores2

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I'd gladly welcome Iowa being aggressive in blitzing. I think all you have to do is look at Oklahoma St. last year. I think this coaching staff knows the ability of A.J. and will be looking to get Purdy out of the pocket quickly when they want to push the ball down the field.
 

HOU_Blue

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Purdy had one of the best completion percentages on deep passes in the nation last year. If his receivers can get separation deep, he'll put it on them.

I don’t think Purdy has the arm strength to fit the ball into tight windows down field against a good defense. He’s also shown a propensity to make bad decisions and has thrown some really awful interceptions, although that is not unexpected of a freshman QB. I’d rather make Purdy + the OL beat me than let Purdy make easy throws to WRs being covered by LBers.
 
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FinalFourCy

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Plus the field has shrunk in the red zone. Takes away the over the top threat on a 1st and long scenario. I have no doubt in my mind with the way that drive was going that we were going to score a touchdown. Instead we had to settle for a field goal.
If you’re bringing up the negatives of a shrunken field, which is more of a compressed field, the ball at the 24 or the ball at the 9?

Hmm, we’re 100% scoring a TD on 1st and goal from the 9, but for the same offense, also feeling getting 5 more yards over 3 plays was a challenge to vast to overcome.
 

Lyon309Cy

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Iowa will struggle to move the ball on us, everyone but Oklahoma and Okie St will struggle to move the ball on us. They may hit a few 20ish yard plays, enough to score on 2 drives, if we don't give up short fields. We are deeper and more well equipped to shut down their offense than they are.
Every year we struggle early, get a bye, and come out with an entirely different looking team. We've completely changed our d scheme over a bye week. There will be adjustments made from UNI.
Iowa has been the same team for 19 years, there are no surprises, and few adjustments. I trust our coaches to find something that works.
My concerns: special teams, turnovers (specifically if JGJ is snapping it) and our tendency to get stubborn on offense.
 

Statefan10

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I don’t think Purdy has the arm strength to fit the ball into tight windows down field against a good defense. He’s also shown a propensity to make bad decisions and has thrown some really awful interceptions, although that is not unexpected of a freshman QB. I’d rather make Purdy + the OL beat me than let Purdy make easy throws to WRs being covered by LBers.
I think Purdy threw two deep pass interceptions last year and both were 50/50 balls that the defender ended up winning.. He also had plenty of throws last year down the field where he fit the ball into tight windows, but you only watched two games so you wouldn't actually know that.
 

HGoat1

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It’s more a bet against your OL and Purdy, to be honest. I don’t think the OL can consistently block Iowa’s DL on long passing plays, which should lead to sacks, holding penalties, and Purdy forcing some bad throws. I also don’t think Purdy has proven that he can consistently make accurate throws downfield to receivers that aren’t Hakeem Butler.

What Purdy has proven is that he is super accurate in the short passing game. I’d rather take my chances with the vertical passing game than watch Jones catch 10 passes on a drag route with a LB covering him.
 

CYCLNST8

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This is the best Iowa team in 5-10 years. They are strong and experienced all over the field with maybe the best DE in the nation and senior QB who will get drafted. I just don't see ISU winning this game. Sorry fellas.

20-13 Hawks.

Yeah, I'm with ya unfortunately. They're probably on their way to double digit wins this year.

I get the impression that our staff & players don't care about this game as much as TOE, who is now obsessed with crushing us. Our best bet would be knocking Stanley out of the game like we did Tate back in '05.
 
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Gunnerclone

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A thing that Iowa does well and has not been brought up yet, is the play action. We can’t get burnt on any play action for any big gains.

This is always the big one vs Iowa. Smith-Marsette can fly. It helps us that they don’t have two 1st round TE talents on their squad this year.
 

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