Isn't it just going to be an up to date version of this:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
13 13 Iowa St. Big 12 18-5 4-3 3-1 11-1 0-0
2018-2019 computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Isn't it just going to be an up to date version of this:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
13 13 Iowa St. Big 12 18-5 4-3 3-1 11-1 0-0
Curious to see how close their top 16 matches with the NET and other computer rankings. If they do, we should be in.
That's what I'm curious to see. Is how close do those Top 16 match up with what they put out. Will tell us how much the NET rankings mean when seeding these teams.
Would be funny if KU gets left out of the top 16 (17 in Net right now). If they win tonight, I think they'll be in the top 16 pretty easily, but if they lose, it may be close.
Yeah, I do not see them being less than a 4 seed, let alone left out of these rankings Saturday.
I do agree, it would be funny!
NET results thru Feb. 4:
#13 Iowa State (18-5, 7-3 Big 12)
Home: 11-1
Road: 4-3
Neutral: 3-1
vs. 1-25: 2-2
vs. 26-50: 3-2
vs. 51-75: 0-1
vs. 76-100: 5-0
vs. 101-200: 3-0
vs. 201 and below: 5-0
#13 Iowa State (18-5, 7-3 Big 12)
Home: 11-1
Road: 4-3
Neutral: 3-1
vs. 1-25: 2-2
vs. 26-50: 3-2
vs. 51-75: 0-1
vs. 76-100: 5-0
vs. 101-200: 3-0
vs. 201 and below: 5-0
That isn't how they look at it. Instead:
Q1a (Home v. 1-15, Neutral v. 1-25, Road v. 1-40)
Q1b (H v. 16-30, N v. 26-50, R v. 41-75)
Q2a (H v. 31-55, N v. 51-75, R v. 76-100)
Q2b (H v. 56-75, N v. 76-100, R v. 101-135)
Q3 (H v. 76-160, N v. 101-200, R v. 136-240)
Q4 (H v.161+, N v. 201+, R v. 241+)
Agreed. The ACC, Big 10, and Gonzaga always have a lot of "posers" because they get they have one good win and the rest are from garbage to meh teams.
Thanks for posting specifics. I haven't made the transition from the old "vs. RPI" format yet. Mainly, I'm lazy. I post my list as a sort of informal guide. My next update I'll try to follow current system.
Here is what I have been able to glean:
Q1a 3-3 (16 A TTU, 38 A OU, 39 A Miss - 17 A KU, 22 A Iowa, 29 A BU)
Q1b 1-1 (17 H KU - 30 H KSU)
Q2a 2-1 (41 H TX, 83 A OSU - 62 N AZ)
Q2b 1-0 (98 N Ill)
Q3 5-0 (83 H OSU, 84 H MU, 96 H WVU, 136 N Drake, 150 N SDSU)
Q4 6-0 (The Professor and Mary Ann)
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Here's a nice site that breaks down ISU games via NET rankings.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/team-net-sheet?team=Iowa-State
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/team-net-sheet?team=Iowa-State
St. John's did us a HUGE favor last night by beating Marquette.
It's Minnesota's turn tonight to take out Wisky
It's Minnesota's turn tonight to take out Wisky
Kansas (shared or solo) = 26.5% (down a whopping 33.0% since last update)
Iowa State (solo) = 31.7% (up 7.1% since last update prior to OU game)
I do not think KU is dead yet, but that game hurt them a lot.
KSU is now the largest threat. TTU and Baylor are lurking on the baseline.
We are probably more likely to split with KSU if that happens than KU now.
Good catch... Marquette plays Nova next, which if MU loses will pretty much give the Big East title to Nova.
Wisconsin is a 3 pt favorite at the Barn.
Also notable game tonight for ISU reg season chances Baylor plays at Texas tonight, UT currently 3 pt fav.
Maybe I am reading this wrong, but isn't the shared column technically, "at least a share" meaning, doesn't Kansas 20% include the 6.5% chance of a solo win?
I am not actually sure. I had been reading them as mutually exclusive and additive, but I can see your point that "shared" might include "solo" within it, as well.
I am going to root for Marquette because if Nova loses, we are in prime position to jump them in the rankings.
If Baylor loses to Texas and then beats K-State at home on Saturday, that would be huge. That would put us in a 3-way tie for first.
I looked into it. They are not additive.
Otherwise, UVA has a >100% chance of winning the ACC title (share or solo).
The share, therefore, must contain the "solo" chances within it.
I will update like that going forward accordingly.
Good news -- KU has a 1/5 chance now of continuing its conference title streak. Losing that game in Austin and that game in Manhattan really crippled their chances.
I'm nervous about Wisconsin taking the second Des Moines spot from us and sending us to Hartford or San Jose... We'll find out Saturday morning at 11:30 when the committee announces their top 16
This projection puts Wisconsin ahead of us right now...
This one looks more like it would put us in Des Moines...
