2018-2019 computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

#13 team in the country, #1 in B12... but projected 5-seed. Something seems odd there.

Playing in a tough conference helps your strength-of-schedule by whatever ranking system, your number of quality wins, and your overall efficiency on KenPom and the like, but it also means you are likely to have more losses by the end of the season.

The committee is supposed to recognize you for accepting and dealing with the challenge, but sometimes they just look at going 10-8 in the Big 12 and go "blah" and dock your seeding slightly, even if doing that is not easy given the strength of the conference.

Sometimes they just default to the number of wins sometimes.

For the record, if the tournament started today, I would expect a #4, then a #3, and then a #5 on the low side. I think any of those would be at least fair to us.

Barttovik has us the highest #4 right now...



The numbers above play out the rest of the season in the computers -- hence why Tennessee falls off the #1 line after some projected losses going forward.

Anybody want to break down the first weekend locations for the list above?

...and with the CV of a team that draws a #3 or a #4 (mostly)...

 

[ComCY]

Playing in a tough conference helps your strength-of-schedule by whatever ranking system, your number of quality wins, and your overall efficiency on KenPom and the like, but it also means you are likely to have more losses by the end of the season.

The committee is supposed to recognize you for accepting and dealing with the challenge, but sometimes they just look at going 10-8 in the Big 12 and go "blah" and dock your seeding slightly, even if doing that is not easy given the strength of the conference.

Sometimes they just default to the number of wins sometimes.

For the record, if the tournament started today, I would expect a #4, then a #3, and then a #5 on the low side. I think any of those would be at least fair to us.

Barttovik has us the highest #4 right now...

View attachment 62119

The numbers above play out the rest of the season in the computers -- hence why Tennessee falls off the #1 line after some projected losses going forward.

Anybody want to break down the first weekend locations for the list above?

...and with the CV of a team that draws a #3 or a #4 (mostly)...

View attachment 62120

I get that, but that site has us at 12-6 in the B12 at the end of the year. That's gotta be worth more than a 5-seed.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I get that, but that site has us at 12-6 in the B12 at the end of the year. That's gotta be worth more than a 5-seed.

I agree with you that it is on the low-end.

I would find anything between 3 and 5 right now reasonable, though.

Heck, Bracket Matrix has us at a 5...

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

We are between 3 and 7 on there. That is dipping too low.

When does the mid-season Top 16 come out? That will be interesting.

 

[NoCreativity]

I can't believe they have Virginia Tech as a 3 right now. They have a good non-conference win against Purdue but their ACC wins are a complete joke and they were blown out against the only 2 good teams they've played in conference.

 

[MartinCy]

I agree with you that it is on the low-end.

I would find anything between 3 and 5 right now reasonable, though.

Heck, Bracket Matrix has us at a 5...

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

We are between 3 and 7 on there. That is dipping too low.

When does the mid-season Top 16 come out? That will be interesting.

Last year the Top 16 was released on February 11 and Selection Sunday was March 11.

This year Selection Sunday is March 17 so my guess is February 17.

 

[cyfan92]

We need keep winning plus Wisconsin and Marquette to drop a couple games to be confident in Des Moines

Wisconsin has 4 straight against good teams: Maryland @ home, @ Minnesota, Michigan @ home and @ MSU

 

[EnkAMania]

I got bored at work and made my own rankings, based on some computer rankings, net rankings and AP. Iowa State is ranked 14th in my scenario.

 

[RonBurgundy]

Barttovik has us the highest #4 right now...

View attachment 62119

Hell, I will take a #4 seed and conference championship (as they indicate) right now. Put us in DSM and then KC and no #1 seed would scare me. Oh, lord, let it be MSU that has to travel to Hilton South. Please baby Jesus.

 

[VeloClone]

Hell, I will take a #4 seed and conference championship (as they indicate) right now. Put us in DSM and then KC and no #1 seed would scare me. Oh, lord, let it be MSU that has to travel to Hilton South. Please baby Jesus.

If we are a #4 seed it is highly likely that the Des Moines pods are taken by a couple of the #1-#3 seeds and ISU ends up in San Diego, Salt Lake City or Hartford.

 

[Sigmapolis]

If we are a #4 seed it is highly likely that the Des Moines pods are taken by a couple of the #1-#3 seeds and ISU ends up in San Diego, Salt Lake City or Hartford.

I would enjoy Hartford.

 

[TedKumsher]

Hell, I will take a #4 seed and conference championship (as they indicate) right now. Put us in DSM and then KC and no #1 seed would scare me. Oh, lord, let it be MSU that has to travel to Hilton South. Please baby Jesus.

Pretty high risk/reward scenario there. The pain potential is off the charts.

 

[Sigmapolis]

After Iowa State's win over Texas and Kansas' win over Texas Tech...



Kansas (share or sole) = 59.5% (up 16.5% from yesterday)
Iowa State (sole) = 24.6% (up 1.2% from yesterday)

The computers gave us a high chance of defeating Texas, even if I think we all knew that would be a tough game, so that win only pushed our expectations up marginally. The "push" had to be held down by Kansas defeating TTU at home, as well, netting them some chance.

Iowa State has a 57% chance of winning in Norman.
Kansas has a 48% chance of winning in Manhattan.
Kansas State could make themselves a serious contender with a win.

Those are two of the important swing games left on the Cyclones and Jayhawks' (and, heck, I will throw in the Wildcats, though they are probably out if they lose that game on Tuesday) schedules this season. Those are huge games for the conference race next week.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I think the computers liked Kansas' beating of Texas Tech...

 

[Sigmapolis]

Almost to the point where we could lose out and still make the dance...

 

[HFCS]

I can't believe they have Virginia Tech as a 3 right now. They have a good non-conference win against Purdue but their ACC wins are a complete joke and they were blown out against the only 2 good teams they've played in conference.

ACC schedules need HIGH scrutiny and their regular season champ can be downright illegitimate quite easily.

Compare schedules at the end of the year for their 15 team 18 game schedules and the Big Ten's 14 team 20 game schedules. Those subtle differences make a huuuuuuuuuge difference in how unbalanced the schedules can be.

 

[Daserop]

ACC schedules need HIGH scrutiny and their regular season champ can be downright illegitimate quite easily.

Compare schedules at the end of the year for their 15 team 18 game schedules and the Big Ten's 14 team 20 game schedules. Those subtle differences make a huuuuuuuuuge difference in how unbalanced the schedules can be.

Agreed. This props up the Big 10 and ACC overall. They aren't beating up on each other in the conference and makes the conference overall look more "elite".

The Big 12 does it right. True round robin twice (home and away).

I think the NCAA selection committee sees through the conference imbalances. Every years the Big 12 gets 70 to 80% of the league into the tournament. For reference.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

[Sigmapolis]

Ten is such the perfect number for a conference.

Even number.

Single round-robin for football.

Double round-robin home-and-home for basketball.

It is just so perfect.

 

[NoCreativity]

Agreed. This props up the Big 10 and ACC overall. They aren't beating up on each other in the conference and makes the conference overall look more "elite".

The Big 12 does it right. True round robin twice (home and away).

I think the NCAA selection committee sees through the conference imbalances. Every years the Big 12 gets 70 to 80% of the league into the tournament. For reference.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Agreed, go look at Virginia Tech for example. They beat up on all the bottom feeders but then get Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, and Florida State only once. Of course Im picking on them because in most projections we are fighting with them for a 3 seed right now.

The same could be said about Purdue and Wisconsin. Kansas is really the only team we can control whether we pass for a #3 seed right now.

 

[cyfan92]

We will have a first Top 16 ranking on CBS this Saturday at 11:30 am CST

How to watch

• What: NCAA Tournament selection committee top 16 bracket reveal
  
• When: Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET
  
• TV: CBS
  
• Streaming: CBS All Access

 

[ZB4CY]

We will have a first Top 16 ranking on CBS this Saturday at 11:30 am CST

How to watch

• What: NCAA Tournament selection committee top 16 bracket reveal
  
• When: Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET
  
• TV: CBS
  
• Streaming: CBS All Access

Was just going to post this.

We should get an idea for where we are with these rankings.