2018-2019 computer projections thread

[RonBurgundy]

I like the way this guy thinks.


11.IOWA ST.
Last week: No. 18
Back in early January, there was feeling within the Big 12 that Iowa State (18-5) had the most talent in the league. You look up now and it's not even arguable. From Marial Shayok to Lindell Wigginton to Cam Lard to Talen Horton-Tucker to Tyrese Haliburton, Steve Prohm's done a tremendous job building out a very fun roster. The Cyclones are Final Four contenders a season after finishing last in the Big 12.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...-no-1-virginia-and-no-2-duke-set-for-rematch/

You forgot the second best part.

Dropped out: Virginia Tech, Kansas

 

[FinalFourCy]

I think we rightfully detect Kansas is kind of rickety this season. They are still a very good basketball team, but maybe the weakest squad of the Self era right now.

They are likely to win-out at home, though.

That will put them in the 11-13 range for wins in the Big 12.

That will still be a Top 16 seed.

Perhaps they would be, but should they?
My statement was that if they finish a couple games behind us in the Big 12, which more likely means 11 wins for them than 13, they should be behind us. That would be 11-7, so to get a top-16 seed and be seeded better than ISU would be heavily relying on the resume with Doke. Which takes us to the question on should that be the case? Given the general distaste the NET has for the Big 12 compared to the RPI, KU would need a strong Big 12 tournament to get a top 16 seed in that scenario imo.

Of course, if we don’t lose again in the regular season, and KU only once more, they may get a top-16 seed, but we should be ahead and a top-8 seed.

 

[cyfan92]

One think I'm curious about that few people mention... How does the committee look at us post getting everyone healthy and off suspension. We are 6-3 vs Kenpom top 100 opponents have the 11th best odds in Vegas of going to the Final Four and winning a championship

Maybe Kansas will be punished since they have been very average since loosing Doke

 

[brokenloginagain]

still a LONG ways to go. 8 more conf games + 1-3 in the conf tourney.

if we win the b12 regular season and get past the 1st rd of the b12 tourney, i'd be stunned if we don't get des moines.

 

[VeloClone]

Maybe I am missing something, but there isn't a guarantee DSM would get a 2/15 & 7/10 matchup is there? Couldn't DSM very well end up with a 3/14 & 6/11 bracket which would fit us fine if we ended up being seeded that way?

Basically am I correct when stating that there is no guarantee as to what seeds or even regions will get placed in DSM?

You are correct. The way they do it is they take the overall top seed and place them in the closest first round location. Then the second #1 seed and so on. The problem comes if both pods in Des Moines are taken by other teams before they get to ISU on the list. Theoretically even the third #1 seed could not get placed in their closest location if it also is the closest location for the two #1 seeds above them.

 

[Cydwinder]

You are correct. The way they do it is they take the overall top seed and place them in the closest first round location. Then the second #1 seed and so on. The problem comes if both pods in Des Moines are taken by other teams before they get to ISU on the list. Theoretically even the third #1 seed could not get placed in their closest location if it also is the closest location for the two #1 seeds above them.

Is this based on physical distance or travel distance? A place like UVA is closer to Columbus by distance but actually closer driving time to Columbia.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Is this based on physical distance or travel distance? A place like UVA is closer to Columbus by distance but actually closer driving time to Columbia.

Would the team be driving?

If driving is important because of fans traveling, then I’m hoping UVa goes to Hartford. They’ve got a large NY and New England base, and Hartford is closer to their large DC/Northern VA base.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Would the team be driving?

If driving is important because of fans traveling, then I’m hoping UVa goes to Hartford. They’ve got a large NY and New England base, and Hartford is closer to their large DC/Northern VA base.

It feels like 100% of their alumni base is in the Washington, DC area.

 

[cloneteach]

There is a better chance of ISU ending up in Des Moines as a 6 seed than a 4 seed.

 

[VeloClone]

Is this based on physical distance or travel distance? A place like UVA is closer to Columbus by distance but actually closer driving time to Columbia.

They take it literally. It is miles as the crow flies from campus to the hosting arena.

 

[cloneteach]

There is a better chance of ISU ending up in Des Moines as a 6 seed than a 4 seed.

I will add ISU could end up in any of the 8 pods as a 6 seed so theoretically they have a 1/8 or 12.5% chance of ending up in DSM as a 6.

ISU has a lower chance than that of earning DSM as a 4 seed. They would most likely end up in San Jose or SLC as a 4 seed.

 

[cyclonedave25]

Still holding out hope that ISU can jump to a 3 seed and MSU keeps dropping, as well as Marquette losing.

 

[ForeverIowan]

Still holding out hope that ISU can jump to a 3 seed and MSU keeps dropping, as well as Marquette losing.

Win the Big 12 and at worst we are a 3 seed in Des Moines. We will leap frog Kansas. Michigan State has a pretty brutal schedule down the stretch. Marquette will lose a couple more and I'm not sold they'd get DM over us if the selection show was today.

 

[cyfan92]

Win the Big 12 and at worst we are a 3 seed in Des Moines. We will leap frog Kansas. Michigan State has a pretty brutal schedule down the stretch. Marquette will lose a couple more and I'm not sold they'd get DM over us if the selection show was today.

Agree, win the Big 12 and we won't have to worry in my opinion about not being in Des Moines. I still think the computers view this as the top conference.

Would we take Des Moines if it meant we aren't in the Midwest region? Thinking about it, I'd rather be a 4/5 seed in the Midwest than be a 3 seed, play in Des Moines but have to be in the other regions. 0% chance of any fan base out traveling us if we got the opportunity to play the Sweet 16 in KC

 

[LLCoolCY]

Win the Big 12 and at worst we are a 3 seed in Des Moines. We will leap frog Kansas. Michigan State has a pretty brutal schedule down the stretch. Marquette will lose a couple more and I'm not sold they'd get DM over us if the selection show was today.

I agree that the Big 12 regular season champion should get a 2 or 3 seed. MSU is struggling now but if they get the ship righted to get the Big 10 title there is an argument. I can't see Marquette having a case to be above any of them if they don't get the Big East title, especially since it is a down year for the conference.
Marq is playing Villinova this Saturday, Nova has a 2 game lead already and with a loss likely gets the banner added to their rafters.

 

[RonBurgundy]

I will add ISU could end up in any of the 8 pods as a 6 seed so theoretically they have a 1/8 or 12.5% chance of ending up in DSM as a 6.

ISU has a lower chance than that of earning DSM as a 4 seed. They would most likely end up in San Jose or SLC as a 4 seed.

I understand what you are saying, but I don't think it works like that. The committee is unlikely to make a #3 seed play a #6 seed ISU in Des Moines. To get Des Moines, we have to earn it, which probably means #4 at worst.

 

[cloneteach]

I understand what you are saying, but I don't think it works like that. The committee is unlikely to make a #3 seed play a #6 seed ISU in Des Moines. To get Des Moines, we have to earn it, which probably means #4 at worst.

It is unlikely they end up in DSM as a 6 seed (1/8) but the committee isn't going to purposely send a team further away from home. The idea of the pods in the first place was to cut down travel, etc. The "protected" seeds are really for first round games anyway.

The committee has more than enough on their plate already with avoiding certain potential matchups in second round to worry about sending a 6 seed far away from home. There is no guarantee the matchup will happen and I'm sure they'd love to have as many local teams as possible at each of these pods.

 

[Doc]

With our loss, kenpom now has the top of the B12 ending in a 5-way tie at 11-7. That would be something else.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Barttovik gave us a 54 for that game yesterday. That is our worst of the season.

To quote Mean Girls, "Boo, you _____."



And this...



The Purple Kitties are in the pole position.

 

[Sigmapolis]

With our loss, kenpom now has the top of the B12 ending in a 5-way tie at 11-7. That would be something else.

Barttovik has KSU and TTU at 12-6 and us tied for third with KU at 11-7.