Great research by Jeff Woody.
http://cyclonefanatic.com/football/news/jeff-woody-insane-baylor-stats/
http://cyclonefanatic.com/football/news/jeff-woody-insane-baylor-stats/
DON'T PUNT vs. Baylor: The numbers back this up
- Thread starter ChrisMWilliams
- Start date
Trying to come up with something clever to say, but we all know what will happen. It makes sense, you have to do it in order to have a chance at winning, will we? no. Field position to make a run at being 28 down at half.
Punt away! might as well set an ISU record and do it on first or second down rather than third.
Did this disappear for like, five hours, then reappear? Was that mushroom on my pizza a magical mushroom?
Against Baylor it's hard to argue against it. They score on 63% of their total possessions and that includes possessions where they are running out the clock at the end of games. That's an absurd number...you might as well just go for it and pray. If you're using all four plays every possession you can gameplan to gain minimum 2.5 yards per play instead of 3.4.
I say why not...if someone has a better plan then let's hear it, but against Baylor I don't think there is a good plan other than team food poisoning before the game.
A hint of devil's-advocacy:Although BU's offensive stats/PPG are otherworldly, I suppose it requires at least a slight adjustment, since Baylor's opponents so far this year are either (1) not known for defense, (2) not good teams or (3) both.
Even so — that drive-start/TD% chart is mind-boggling. If I've calculated the percentages correctly, when Baylor starts at its 41-yard line or closer, Bears have score 15 touchdowns in 17 attempts.
Even if your opposition is somewhat non-resistant, you're still cashing it in at a rate that doesn't even seem possible, or realistic.
Even so — that drive-start/TD% chart is mind-boggling. If I've calculated the percentages correctly, when Baylor starts at its 41-yard line or closer, Bears have score 15 touchdowns in 17 attempts.
Even if your opposition is somewhat non-resistant, you're still cashing it in at a rate that doesn't even seem possible, or realistic.
So, what you're saying is that Baylor has basically played six games against teams like the 2015 ISU Cyclones
Completely believable.
First down: Incomplete pass
Second down: Bubble screen for no gain
Third down: Something-something that involves clock-stoppage (with only 50 seconds after the open kick and no net gain, probably means no attempt to hand the ball to the RB on first or second down.)
A penalty of some kind could enter the mix, too.
What I like about Woody's strategy is, it's "if you truly want a chance to win" vs. "prevent being blown-out."
Against this specific opponent, and considering ISU's least-effective tendencies, no-punt is worth a try. Go with the assumption you're working with 4 downs every series, not 3. So instead of having to make 3.3 yards per play, you need only 2.5.
You couldn't run Warren up the gut every play for 4 quarters without some variety, but the more clock you can use and have an extra down to move the chains, you're at least keeping pressure on BU's defense and minimizing their time with the ball.
I think if no-punt is the approach, go-for-it instead of FGs ought to be included, too (unless game situation dictates otherwise).
There are limits, of course. If ISU is 4th-and-17 at its own 30, for example, then you do the obvious — fake punt.
Against this specific opponent, and considering ISU's least-effective tendencies, no-punt is worth a try. Go with the assumption you're working with 4 downs every series, not 3. So instead of having to make 3.3 yards per play, you need only 2.5.
You couldn't run Warren up the gut every play for 4 quarters without some variety, but the more clock you can use and have an extra down to move the chains, you're at least keeping pressure on BU's defense and minimizing their time with the ball.
I think if no-punt is the approach, go-for-it instead of FGs ought to be included, too (unless game situation dictates otherwise).
There are limits, of course. If ISU is 4th-and-17 at its own 30, for example, then you do the obvious — fake punt.
If nothing else, it might limit the amount of offensive yardage they rack up against us. If you give them a 30 yard field vs. a 70 yard field they're still going to score either way, they'll just get fewer average yards each drive. This would give us more possessions and more chances to run time off the clock.
Knowing you will go for it on 4th down gives you a lot of freedom with play caling on 2nd and 3rd down too. Its our only chance. If we punt one time after crossing the 50 yard line, I'm turning the game off.
Oh, don't even think about kicking field goals either. That's like ******* into the wind against Baylor.
Oh, don't even think about kicking field goals either. That's like ******* into the wind against Baylor.
This should be the Iowa State strategy against everybody. Ball inside the 50 and less than 10 yards to go is a no-brainer.
If Rhoads takes to this philosophy for this one game and a miracle happens I will not forgive him for the previous coaching disasters. I hit my breaking point with him long ago.
If Rhoads takes to this philosophy for this one game and a miracle happens I will not forgive him for the previous coaching disasters. I hit my breaking point with him long ago.
But then we still have to punt. Take a knee at the one so they only get seven points instead of nine.
I think Paul Rhoads should propose that we get the ball the whole first half at the Baylor 20 yard line with 1 first down and can only score touchdowns. Baylor then gets the ball the whole second half but must start from their own 20 yard line and can get unlimited first downs and field goals/touchdowns. I still think we lose though.
