2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[dahliaclone]

If we finish 2-1, I think that this team has made a case for itself as a 1 seed. Might not get it, but they'll at least be in the conversation. Losing one extra game beyond that is not going to move the needle a whole seed line when they're really looking at total resume now, not what you did this week or last week.

it's just bonkers how many good teams there are this year. i just keep reminding myself that if we don't get a number one seed, so be it. In any other year, with our resume, we'd likely be a lock for one at this point. It's just there are like 10 teams that are legit THAT GOOD this year when it's usually like four.

 

[Cyclonepride]

It depends on who the loss is to. I think a loss to Arizona State and the 1 seed becomes a longshot although wins against Texas Tech and Arizona would mitigate that. When you're on the bubble of 1 vs. 2 seed, a loss to a bad team could be damaging and conversely a win at Arizona could be what just about locks it in.

Either way, they're certainly in the conversation for a 1 seed which we would have all signed up for 3 games before the end of the regular season.

A loss to ASU would definitely kill the 1 seed talk because we're right on the edge. I just don't think it would take us from the edge of a 1 to a 3.

 

[NYCYFan]

A loss to ASU would definitely kill the 1 seed talk because we're right on the edge. I just don't think it would take us from the edge of a 1 to a 3.

Just to clarify, I meant a loss to Arizona State and losing the first game in the conference tournament to a lesser team. I don't think that would knock them down to a 3 but further down the 2 seed line and a likely tougher path with Duke or Michigan in their region.

Either way, there's a lot of very good to great teams at the top this season moreso than any season I remember so it's going to be quite a battle to get to that elusive Final Four.

 

[Kettes]

Just to clarify, I meant a loss to Arizona State and losing the first game in the conference tournament to a lesser team. I don't think that would knock them down to a 3 but further down the 2 seed line and a likely tougher path with Duke or Michigan in their region.

Either way, there's a lot of very good to great teams at the top this season moreso than any season I remember.

Yeah, worst case scenario would be in a region with Michigan and Florida.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

A loss to ASU would definitely kill the 1 seed talk because we're right on the edge. I just don't think it would take us from the edge of a 1 to a 3.

I think the teams currently sitting on the 1 and 2 line are pretty much locks between those two seed lines. Florida is really the only 3 seed that could potentially flip a 2. If you look at the Gators full body of work I think it's kind of tough to make a case for them to jump any of the 1 or 2 seeds though.

 

[danvillecyclone]

I think the teams currently sitting on the 1 and 2 line are pretty much locks between those two seed lines. Florida is really the only 3 seed that could potentially flip a 2. If you look at the Gators full body of work I think it's kind of tough to make a case for them to jump any of the 1 or 2 seeds though.

Never underestimate the Power of the Dark Side (committee)

 

[CascadeClone]

It depends on who the loss is to. I think a loss to Arizona State and the 1 seed becomes a longshot although wins against Texas Tech and Arizona would mitigate that. When you're on the bubble of 1 vs. 2 seed, a loss to a bad team could be damaging and conversely a win at Arizona could be what just about locks it in.

Either way, they're certainly in the conversation for a 1 seed which we would have all signed up for 3 games before the end of the regular season.

Didn't someone come out recently and say bad losses are less of a deal than big wins? Like, everyone can have a bad day, but if you have a bunch of big wins that's more important. I think that was part of that "media goes thru the selection process" thing from a few weeks ago.

 

[VeloClone]

How about an update after the last two games:

Iowa State NET 8 (as of 25 FEB)
24-4, 13-0 NC, 11-4 Conf
Home 15-0, Away 5-4, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 52, RPI SOS 67
KPI 7, SOR 7, WAB 8, BPI 7, POM 8, T Rank 8

Q1 6-4
..Q1a 4-2 (A 6 Purdue +23, H 9 UH +3, A 14 KU -21, H 14 KU +18, A 21 BYU -10, N 22 St John’s +1)
..Q1b 2-2 (H 27 Iowa +4, A 45 TCU -7, A 49 BU +10, A 51 UC -9)
Q2 10-0
..Q2a 4-0 (H 43 UCF +30, H 49 BU +3, A 80 OSU +13, A 100 KSU +34)
..Q2b 6-0 (H 66 WVU +21, H 71 CU +30, N 77 Syracuse +31, N 83 Creighton +18, N 94 Miss St +16, A 118 UU +16)
Q3 0-0 1-0 (H 80 OSU +12)
Q4 7-0 (H 265 Long Beach +31, H 287 Grambling +40, H 297 HCU +28, H 322 EIU +25, H 331 FDU +38, H 337 Stonehill +39, H 344 Alcorn +64)

Notes:

• ISU resume still looking good with 16 combined Q1 and Q2 wins and no losses below Q1b.
• Two of last three games are Q1.
• OSU (NET 80) dropped below that important NET 75 mark so ISU’s two wins over OSU dropped to Q2a and Q3.
• No remaining games below Q2.
• ISU currently undefeated at home and 9-4 away from Hilton.
• Rooting interest:
  • Tonight - St. John’s @ UConn. A St. John’s win would bolster ISU’s St. John’s win and drop UConn (NET 10).
  • Tonight – Florida @ Texas. A double-digit loss in Austin might quiet some of the talk of the Gators (NET 7) being the hottest team in the nation. If they win out, they could easily pass ISU.
  • Friday – Michigan @ Illinois. Michigan going on the road and blowing out Illinois (NET 4) might help ISU in the race for seeding. A single-digit loss may not move the needle.
  • Saturday – OSU @ UC. An OSU road win would likely push both ISU wins over the Cowboys up a level meaning another Q1 win with no change at the Q2 level. ISU’s UC loss is likely safe from dropping to a bad Q2a loss even with a loss here and probably even with another loss.
  • Saturday – KU @ UA. Pick your poison. An Arizona (NET 3) loss keeps a glimmer of hope alive for a piece of the conference championship if ISU can also beat Arizona Monday. A Kansas (NET 14) loss helps ISU in the race for a double bye in Kansas City.
  • Saturday – Arkansas @ Florida. Arkansas going to Gainesville and upsetting Florida (NET 7) could take a little blush off of the Florida rose.

Remaining games:
2 Home, 1 Away
Q1 2 (1H, 1A)
Q2 1 (1H, 0A)
Q3 0
Q4 0

Remaining schedule:
St 2/28 Q1a 15 TTU
M 3/2 Q1a @ 3 UA
St 3/7 Q2b 73 ASU
3/11*-14 Big 12 Tournament
*a Tuesday game in KC for ISU is now mathematically eliminated

 

[moores2]

Without doing any logic on bracketing and without looking at any information, I've already concluded we are going to be the a 2 seed, in a bracket with Michigan as the 1 and Florida as the 3 seed.

I can confidently conclude this, because this is the setup I would least desire.

Honestly with the way this team responds to crowds. Give me Michigan in Chicago over another 1/2 seed in Houston any day.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Never underestimate the Power of the Dark Side (committee)

Oh I know...

 

[CysEyesVet]

I think the only way they drop to a 3 seed is losing to Texas Tech and Arizona (or trip, stumble, and skid and go 0-3... doubtful, obviously).

If they win out, I'm guessing the 1 seed is back in play. Heck, it could be even with an Arizona win.

 

[danvillecyclone]

Honestly with the way this team responds to crowds. Give me Michigan in Chicago over another 1/2 seed in Houston any day.

I was there vs Miami in 2022.

KU had the most fans,

Iowa State was a close second.

 

[Kettes]

How about an update after the last two games:

Iowa State NET 8 (as of 25 FEB)
24-4, 13-0 NC, 11-4 Conf
Home 15-0, Away 5-4, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 52, RPI SOS 67
KPI 7, SOR 7, WAB 8, BPI 7, POM 8, T Rank 8

Q1 6-4
..Q1a 4-2 (A 6 Purdue +23, H 9 UH +3, A 14 KU -21, H 14 KU +18, A 21 BYU -10, N 22 St John’s +1)
..Q1b 2-2 (H 27 Iowa +4, A 45 TCU -7, A 49 BU +10, A 51 UC -9)
Q2 10-0
..Q2a 4-0 (H 43 UCF +30, H 49 BU +3, A 80 OSU +13, A 100 KSU +34)
..Q2b 6-0 (H 66 WVU +21, H 71 CU +30, N 77 Syracuse +31, N 83 Creighton +18, N 94 Miss St +16, A 118 UU +16)
Q3 0-0 1-0 (H 80 OSU +12)
Q4 7-0 (H 265 Long Beach +31, H 287 Grambling +40, H 297 HCU +28, H 322 EIU +25, H 331 FDU +38, H 337 Stonehill +39, H 344 Alcorn +64)

Notes:

• ISU resume still looking good with 16 combined Q1 and Q2 wins and no losses below Q1b.
• Two of last three games are Q1.
• OSU (NET 80) dropped below that important NET 75 mark so ISU’s two wins over OSU dropped to Q2a and Q3.
• No remaining games below Q2.
• ISU currently undefeated at home and 9-4 away from Hilton.
• Rooting interest:
  • Tonight - St. John’s @ UConn. A St. John’s win would bolster ISU’s St. John’s win and drop UConn (NET 10).
  • Tonight – Florida @ Texas. A double-digit loss in Austin might quiet some of the talk of the Gators (NET 7) being the hottest team in the nation. If they win out, they could easily pass ISU.
  • Friday – Michigan @ Illinois. Michigan going on the road and blowing out Illinois (NET 4) might help ISU in the race for seeding. A single-digit loss may not move the needle.
  • Saturday – OSU @ UC. An OSU road win would likely push both ISU wins over the Cowboys up a level meaning another Q1 win with no change at the Q2 level. ISU’s UC loss is likely safe from dropping to a bad Q2a loss even with a loss here and probably even with another loss.
  • Saturday – KU @ UA. Pick your poison. An Arizona (NET 3) loss keeps a glimmer of hope alive for a piece of the conference championship if ISU can also beat Arizona Monday. A Kansas (NET 14) loss helps ISU in the race for a double bye in Kansas City.
  • Saturday – Arkansas @ Florida. Arkansas going to Gainesville and upsetting Florida (NET 7) could take a little blush off of the Florida rose.

Remaining games:
2 Home, 1 Away
Q1 2 (1H, 1A)
Q2 1 (1H, 0A)
Q3 0
Q4 0

Remaining schedule:
St 2/28 Q1a 15 TTU
M 3/2 Q1a @ 3 UA
St 3/7 Q2b 73 ASU
3/11*-14 Big 12 Tournament
*a Tuesday game in KC for ISU is now mathematically eliminated

No idea how the "committee" reads this, but this sure looks like the numbers put us at an overall 7 or 8. Or, teetering on edge of slipping to a 3 if we don't go 2-1 to finish out.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Never underestimate the Power of the Dark Side (committee)

I think what will ultimately hold Florida back is that they had 3 shots at good teams in the non con and lost all of them plus they dropped a game to TCU. Our road win at Purdue is gonna carry some serious weight.

 

[VeloClone]

No idea how the "committee" reads this, but this sure looks like the numbers put us at an overall 7 or 8. Or, teetering on edge of slipping to a 3 if we don't go 2-1 to finish out.

Some things would suggest that. On the other hand 16 Q1 & Q2 wins is elite. Also having no losses below Q1 helps.

NET 1-3 has that many and more but...
4 Illinois has 14 (+Q2 loss)
5 Gonzaga - 11 (+Q3 loss)
6 Purdue - 12
7 Florida - 14 (+Q2 loss)
9 Houston - 15
10 UConn - 14 (+Q3 loss)
11 Nebraska - 12
12 MSU - 13

There are a couple of others like KU who can match ISU (but with a Q2 loss), but you get the picture.

Finally ISU has chances for 2 more Q1 and 1 more Q2 wins in the last 3 games. In addition with a little luck (I know it is tough with the injury news) OSU could jump up 5 or more spots in the NET and make the Q3 win become Q2 and the Q2 win become Q1.

 

[CascadeClone]

No idea how the "committee" reads this, but this sure looks like the numbers put us at an overall 7 or 8. Or, teetering on edge of slipping to a 3 if we don't go 2-1 to finish out.

they don't really follow the NET all that closely for seeding, it certainly isn't their S-curve.

 

[cyclones500]

I was there vs Miami in 2022.

KU had the most fans,

Iowa State was a close second.

I wonder if ISU might have had even higher attendance (maybe still behind KU, though), but maybe a lot hadn't expected to get past first weekend, and already had made the trip/bought tickets for Milwaukee, and weren't able to swing it twice. Would be understandable considering ISU being 11 seed.

I have no idea, just a theory.

 

[VeloClone]

I think what will ultimately hold Florida back is that they had 3 shots at good teams in the non con and lost all of them plus they dropped a game to TCU. Our road win at Purdue is gonna carry some serious weight.

Yeah, Purdue is clear back up to NET 6. That is a huge win.

 

[Die4Cy]

View attachment 168159
You mean like this? Lol.
I know we all make fun of Lunardi because he's terrible, especially with the details of location, but there are many bracket predictions that have Iowa St in the Midwest with Michigan. Which may not make much sense if Michigan is 1 or 2 in the snake, and Iowa St is 5. However, I can absolutely see the committee altering Iowa St's overall rank, just to match them up with a more logical regional placement.

As it is with Lunardi's current bracket. The Midwest region adds up to 29, compared to 33, 36, and 38 for the other 3. That would be brutal.

Well, the good news is nobody misses on bracketology more than Joe Lunardi.

 

[Cyched]

Let’s go Red Storm