2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

ISU now at NET 4. Iowa win slots in as a Q1b win, however Syracuse dropped to Q2b. Creighton is tantalizingly close to Q2b but still is just short at 103 (<101 for Q2).

I'm not going to cry about a top 5 NET.

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Noted somewhere "up-thread" (can't find specific at the moment), Heise did look rushed/uncomfortable with his shot, it's more similar to how it typically went early last season, not as relaxed and confident.

I think other players may have been "pressing," too, (Milan may have been among them) perhaps frustration of having some normally easy shots not fall. Like there was a collective "we have to get rolling" and in some spots in backfired.

D turned up a notch or two later in 1st half and early in 2nd and that definitely helped get the momentum back.
Oh, that reminds me - Milan's second 3 was absolutely crazy. He stumbled coming off the screen, bobbled the catch, didn't have his feet set and still swished the quick release shot. To quote Walters - he absolutely has it stuck on automatic
 
Oh, that reminds me - Milan's second 3 was absolutely crazy. He stumbled coming off the screen, bobbled the catch, didn't have his feet set and still swished the quick release shot. To quote Walters - he absolutely has it stuck on automatic
Yeah, it didn't even look like he fully had his balance but nothing but net.
 
Sign me up for the Buchanan fan club. He reminds me a lot of BRE, except with far superior athletic skills.
This starting 5 has no glaring weaknesses

Every season and "preseason" against the cupcakes we like to salivate about our depth, which I do think is more real than most seasons this season, but TJ is already shortening the rotation.

There are "six starters" with the usual five plus Heise as the sixth man.

Batemon, Nelson, and Pleta (more than anybody else because Buchanan can't play 40 minutes per night and you can't always go small) can each get a bit of run depending on how it is going.

Mulder is the emergency big man there for injury or foul trouble (as happened last night).

And that is it. We might have the finest top six in the country.

Regarding Heise, his offense is a bonus most games. He can not make a shot and the rest of his game makes him worth keeping on the floor, so going 0-3 from deep is not a concern at all for me. I'd feel differently if that was 1-9.

It is still nice for everything to see a guy make "his shot" with an in-rhythm corner three. Thankfully it did not affect the final outcome this time, but there are going to be games we need it.

Agreed. Over the course of the season, I would like to see him shoot his three's around 35%. Something to keep defenses honest when he is the outlet to the corner. But his value to the team is far more than making open shots. He's the guard that will do the "dirty work" (set screens, play hard defense, dive for loose balls, etc) that each team needs to have off the bench

I did notice the "closing lineup" was Heise instead of Toure (despite how much Toure was bothering Stirtz all night long) plus the other four starters. Heise is very much a wing and not a PG as Toure is advertised to be, however, though that lineup does not lack for ballhandling with Lipsey and JJ.

TJ clearly trusts the senior over the freshman in the biggest moments at the moment despite how good Toure has been almost all the time. Just to lend Heise a bit of support back.

:)
 
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At Baylor and at Kansas are scary games.

Last two games in January after that are at Oklahoma St. (historically a rough place for the Cyclones, and the Cowboys are surprisingly salty this year) and home against Colorado.

Getting through January with 2-3 losses is a real possibility if you don't mess up any of the layups.
 
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At Baylor and at Kansas are scary games.

Last two games in January after that are at Oklahoma St. (historically a rough place for the Cyclones, and the Cowboys are surprisingly salty this year) and home against Colorado.

Getting through January with 2-3 losses is a real possibility if you don't mess up any of the layups.

As much as I want to win the Big 12, I care more about March and being healthy. Realistically, try to go 13-5 and win one or two in KC then you'll be something like 28-6. Depending on the Big 12 wins we get, that's a 1 or a 2 seed no doubt.
 
As much as I want to win the Big 12, I care more about March and being healthy. Realistically, try to go 13-5 and win one or two in KC then you'll be something like 28-6. Depending on the Big 12 wins we get, that's a 1 or a 2 seed no doubt.

It's nice having Toure and Heise around.

Lipsey not having to guard the opponent's best scoring guard/wing every night is a godsend.
 
Just stopping this morning to appreciate the fact that even the most optimistic of us would have taken 8-2 or 9-1 to this point. I drink the Kool Aid all day long and I never expected 10-0 with that kind of schedule.
Prior to season, 8-2 (11-2 full non-con) seemed realistic to me, but perhaps as "ceiling," wasn't banking on anything beyond that. 2-1 at Players (with uncertainty about 3rd opponent), penciled a loss at Purdue. I assumed Miss St and Iowa "favorable," but neither guaranteed.
 
At least he's shooting. Nate had a substantial stretch last year where he just wouldn't shoot.

He also took very good shots, which is reassuring over the long haul. He didn’t look hesitant to me so much as uncomfortable

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At Baylor and at Kansas are scary games.

Last two games in January after that are at Oklahoma St. (historically a rough place for the Cyclones, and the Cowboys are surprisingly salty this year) and home against Colorado.

Getting through January with 2-3 losses is a real possibility if you don't mess up any of the layups.

hot take, but @ Oklahoma State is scarier to me than any of the games shown. The last few seasons I’ve felt if you watch closely enough you can see that Baylor players hate playing Otz teams. Kansas is the most difficult, but not the scariest to me—Iowa State and Kansas always seem to play each other close
 
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Agree with both of these points. Have to think this is a significant factor in his offensive production right now.
 
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A Heise heater is coming. He's saving them for Big 12 play. He did a pretty good job on Stirtz last night as well. He's a very physical defender
Heise was elite against Purdue. And I truly mean elite - go back and watch him that whole game, he was everywhere on both ends. He specifically caused as much disruption as anyone that day, especially on defense where he was actually more effective playing an off-ball sort of "safety" type role to throw off Purdue's counters to our ball pressure and trapping.
 
Sign me up for the Buchanan fan club. He reminds me a lot of BRE, except with far superior athletic skills.
This starting 5 has no glaring weaknesses
Buch absolutely POTG last night. JJeff had all the points, but Buch had so many big plays.
 
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