It comes down to battery technology which has advanced faster than anticipated in the last 10 years but still has a ways to go. There are a number of companies with announced plans for batteries that would allow +600 miles per charge at a fraction of the current cost. By 2030 I would expect these batteries will be available.
Given EVs have 1/3 the parts of ICEs promising far lower costs, far more torque, life spans that should easily be over 10 years and much less need for periodic maintenance, once batteries hit the sweet spot it will be game, set match.
If you look at it, ICEs are a cludge. Explosions that produce an up and down motion of pistons that gets translated with a drive train to a turning motion, producing more heat than torque requiring liquid pouring through the engine block to keep it from melting along with a water pump and radiator, an electric motor to get it started, a controlled gas/air mixture, a transmission with low gears to start the vehicle moving forward and higher gears to get higher speed because the torque produced is so small and everywhere points of friction between metal parts that must be overcome.... I could go on and on and on...
While EVs have 1 or 2 electric motors that have almost no friction because they use magnetism to power the turning motion (0 contact with other metal parts) and incredible torque.
The problem has always been the batteries, many new technologies are being explored, we are in the first part of the bathtub curve on EVs, in the end ICEs are doomed that is why all major car companies are investing heavily in EVs. They know what the engineering and economics are leading to. In 2040, ICEs will be horse and buggies compared to EVs.
At least, that is my view...
