I'd love to see how you can quantify how an above average fielder, especially in the outfield, contributes to more wins than an average fielder holding their batting performance constant.....
MLB: Why is David Ortiz Sucking?
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I'd love to see how you can quantify how an above average fielder, especially in the outfield, contributes to more wins than an average fielder holding their batting performance constant.....
Who's to say that an above average fielder wouldn't make mistakes either? I've seen Torii Hunter misjudge fly balls, miss the cut off man, etc. While Murphy's has supposedly lost 2-3 games for the Mets, you can say a better outfielder would not have either... Perhaps not in those games but in others...
I'd love to see how you can quantify that it doesn't.
They don't keep stats for missing the cutoff man, taking bad angles on balls, being scared of the wall, range, and other intangibles.
You're basically saying that fielding skills in the outfield don't matter. They do.
I would bet that Beltran, Hunter, or any of the better outfielders don't make the amount of mistakes Murphy or other bad outfielders make, and the extra mistakes can and do result in runs and losses in close games.
Manny plays left field like the ball boy. That was why he was such a hugew hit in Fenway - left field was a smaller area to patrol. He was like greased lightning in outfield - you never knew if the grease would impact his holding onto the ball and his errant throws. He has DH written all over him. Instead he goes Hollywood on us and get a new source of roids. First A-Roid, now M-roid.
What I am saying is that if Murphy could hit like Beltran it wouldn't matter. Honestly Murphy does not belong in the majors, at least not as an everyday starter.
I am saying fielding skills in the outfield do not matter if you're producing at the plate best hitters in the game. Left Field is the position to put the worst OF now a days: It's the shortest throw to 3rd.
If Manny played Gold Glove defense, his team probably only wins a couple extra games. You aren't paying him to play D, you're paying him to hit.
If you had someone who played superior defense but had identical offense to Murphy, I would bet that the Mets would have the same record as they do now. Even if they didn't, how much more would you pay that guy? Murphy is getting paid $400k. The average MLB player makes what $2.5 million? Would you pay an extra $2 million for 2 extra wins?
Manny is horrible at defense and the Red Sox have 2 WS rings, and single-handidly carried the Dodgers 2nd half of last year.
I agreed with you on that long ago, but it seemed that you still wanted to argue.
This is what you said that I still dispute:
Outfield can and does have an effect on wins and losses.
I don't subscribe to Baseball Prospectus, but here's the start of an interesting article discussing this topic:
https://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1829
https://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1829
This wasn't always the case. Manny was a 2 time New York City player of the year in high school. He was a true 5 tool player who many projected as a gold glove CF. His body build at the time was very similar to a young Barry Bonds. The MLB channel had a special earlier this year with some high school clips of Manny - he was truly amazing in the field.
I had to cancel my subscription to BP so I can't read all of this either. But it's talking about team defense and compared the best to the worst.
150 extra hits as a team over the course of the season. That's less than 1 extra hit a game, and that's if you have the worst MLB outfield. I think the Nationals would probably have to be the worst.
Considering the Mets have Beltran in CF, I doubt they are one of the worst even if Murphy does suck that bad, so the effect would have to be less than 150 extra hits compared to the team with the best defensive OF.
I am still not entirely sold what this does to wins and losses. I'd say the Mariners from 2008 had probably the best defensive outfield in all of the bigs and they were horrible overall. It's still all about what you do at the plate.
Winning in baseball is like this IMO: build a good offense, respectible pitching, and work with whichever defense you've got. Only pay a premium on offense, never on defense, and find bargains with pitching.
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Wow this thread got derailed, let me get it back on track....
Ortiz hits 2 homers in the last 3 games; is it the last death rattle or is he going to turn it around?
Ortiz hits 2 homers in the last 3 games; is it the last death rattle or is he going to turn it around?
They also placed him out in left field, where for 82+ games of the year he's not so much of a defensive liability. If they had placed him out in right field, the Sox would have had problems...
It's the "dead cat" theory. If you're not familiar, allow me. A cat falls off a roof and hits the ground and dies on impact. The cat however bounces causing onlookers to say, "look the cat didn't die", only to find out that it is in fact dead. Basically, this is Papi's last bounce.
(This theory is typically tied to the stock market, but it fits here...I do like the death rattle though and look forward to using it while at bar discussing John Travolta's career).
