Tamin Lipsey Commits

Sigmapolis

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How many frantic comebacks did they have? I know we had a lot in 2015, but that was 2014. Also, it's basketball. What teams don't have last-second victories and comebacks? It's the nature of the game. Why can't we just call it what it was, a 3 seed, Big 12 Tournament champion, and Sweet 16 team? There's no doubt we were on a roll until Niang's injury put us behind the 8 ball.

Bart Torvik isn't the end-all be-all of basketball. If you want to think the 2014 team is worse than Prohm's 9-9 team, have at it. Stat dorks outsmart themselves too often.
I am sure Las Vegas enjoys taking your money with that attitude. Next thing I know you're going to be telling Marial Shayok has an ugly girlfriend so that means he lacks the confidence of an alpha male.

I bet if those two teams play 100 times, the outcome is pretty close to 50-50, yeah. I have never said the Shayok team was substantially better than the 2014 team, though. Just that they were similar overall.

1618598272867.png

Throwing out the meh/bad 2018 team, pretty much all of the squads above that made the NCAA tournament were pretty similar to one another. All of them had talent and accomplishments but also minor inconsistencies that cost them a top ten rating and the chance at a deep run in the NCAA tournament for various reasons.

I think all these teams are worthy of celebrating to about an equal degree.

I just don't see the 2014 team as somehow "special" because it pulled a particularly large number of dramatic games out of its butt in the end, because we went into that year with very limited expectations and were pleasantly surprised, and because Georges broke his foot and if not "we were going to win a national championship."

That despite the fact we wouldn't have been favored against any of the next four opponents we'd have had.
 

Sigmapolis

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No shame in close games with that Okie St squad, they won 21 games, had one of the best players in the country in Smart plus Forte, Nash and Markel Brown. I'm pretty sure they were a preseason top 10 team and stayed there for the majority of the season.

I get what you're saying but it doesn't really apply to Okie St that season. Those were quality wins against a very talented squad.
Oh, I agree with all of this here. That OSU team was excellent. Going 2-0 against was an accomplishment. I just don't see that as somehow enhanced by Naz's prayer going in. I see it as more, "we needed a miracle to win that game, as cool of a moment as it was, and we were that close to going 0-2 against them (and 9-9 in the Big 12)."

The play before Naz's shot was Phil Forte missing a free throw that would have made the lead four and essentially ended the game. Forte was a career 88.2% free throw shooter. Naz's shot was maybe like a, what, 10%, 15% shot at that distance when planting from a sprint? That confluence of events feels more luck (if fun!) than skill. If Forte makes or Naz misses, then we would have been backing into the Big 12 tournament on a three-game losing streak.

I am thinking more about games like the one against an inferior Northern Iowa squad. They got down by as much as 18 early in the second-half and had to claw their way back to win in overtime. Screwing around like that can bite you in the end. Yes, that comeback was memorable, but we should have just handled UNI with confidence.
 

SolarGarlic

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I am sure Las Vegas enjoys taking your money with that attitude. Next thing I know you're going to be telling Marial Shayok has an ugly girlfriend so that means he lacks the confidence of an alpha male.

I bet if those two teams play 100 times, the outcome is pretty close to 50-50, yeah. I have never said the Shayok team was substantially better than the 2014 team, though. Just that they were similar overall.

View attachment 84204

Throwing out the meh/bad 2018 team, pretty much all of the squads above that made the NCAA tournament were pretty similar to one another. All of them had talent and accomplishments but also minor inconsistencies that cost them a top ten rating and the chance at a deep run in the NCAA tournament for various reasons.

I think all these teams are worthy of celebrating to about an equal degree.

I just don't see the 2014 team as somehow "special" because it pulled a particularly large number of dramatic games out of its butt in the end, because we went into that year with very limited expectations and were pleasantly surprised, and because Georges broke his foot and if not "we were going to win a national championship."

That despite the fact we wouldn't have been favored against any of the next four opponents we'd have had.
Uh, sure.
 
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SolarGarlic

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I am sure Las Vegas enjoys taking your money with that attitude. Next thing I know you're going to be telling Marial Shayok has an ugly girlfriend so that means he lacks the confidence of an alpha male.

I bet if those two teams play 100 times, the outcome is pretty close to 50-50, yeah. I have never said the Shayok team was substantially better than the 2014 team, though. Just that they were similar overall.

View attachment 84204

Throwing out the meh/bad 2018 team, pretty much all of the squads above that made the NCAA tournament were pretty similar to one another. All of them had talent and accomplishments but also minor inconsistencies that cost them a top ten rating and the chance at a deep run in the NCAA tournament for various reasons.

I think all these teams are worthy of celebrating to about an equal degree.

I just don't see the 2014 team as somehow "special" because it pulled a particularly large number of dramatic games out of its butt in the end, because we went into that year with very limited expectations and were pleasantly surprised, and because Georges broke his foot and if not "we were going to win a national championship."

That despite the fact we wouldn't have been favored against any of the next four opponents we'd have had.
You don't understand sports. Yes, it takes good fortune and the margins between teams are often small. The reason that team is celebrated is because of what it accomplished. It ended the long streak in Stillwater. It won the Big 12 Tournament championship, the first one since 2000. It earned a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the highest since 2001. It went to the Sweet 16 (by beating UNC), the first since 2000. The fact that we got some all-time moments from that team was just icing on the cake. That's the very reason it is special.

You don't celebrate that team equally to a team that went 9-9 in the conference and lost in the first round to an 11 seed. Nobody gives a **** that they had similar efficiency rankings. The emotion, not the numbers, are why we celebrate specific teams.

You don't get a banner for being top 10 in the KenPom rankings.
 

Sigmapolis

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You don't understand sports. Yes, it takes good fortune and the margins between teams are often small. The reason that team is celebrated is because of what it accomplished. It ended the long streak in Stillwater. It won the Big 12 Tournament championship, the first one since 2000. It earned a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the highest since 2001. It went to the Sweet 16 (by beating UNC), the first since 2000. The fact that we got some all-time moments from that team was just icing on the cake. That's the very reason it is special.

You don't celebrate that team equally to a team that went 9-9 in the conference and lost in the first round to an 11 seed. Nobody gives a **** that they had similar efficiency rankings. The emotion, not the numbers, are why we celebrate specific teams.

You don't get a banner for being top 10 in the KenPom rankings.
You sound like the ******** on ESPN explaining why only the SEC has good football teams.

Do you think the 2015 team was the worst out of all of them because it lost to a #14 seed?

I get it, the 2014 team passed the "eye test" and the 2019 team didn't.

No need to dog whistle me there.

---

Plus, this is all really unfair to the 2019 team. They were more than just "9-9."

I will copy-paste from here briefly...

-- clowned Kansas in Hilton 77-60, and it wasn't as close as the score
-- only team to beat eventual national runner-up Texas Tech in Lubbock that year
-- beat an excellent Kansas State team (that split the regular season title with Tech) in Manhattan
-- clowned a ranked Mississippi team in Oxford
-- won the Big 12 tournament
-- made the NCAA tournament

These are substantial and memorable accomplishments by our historical standards.

This is why we use the numbers -- to take the emotion and the arbitrary choice of which binary standards out of it.
 

SolarGarlic

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You sound like the ******** on ESPN explaining why only the SEC has good football teams.

Do you think the 2015 team was the worst out of all of them because it lost to a #14 seed?

I get it, the 2014 team passed the "eye test" and the 2019 team didn't.

No need to dog whistle me there.

---

Plus, this is all really unfair to the 2019 team. They were more than just "9-9."

I will copy-paste from here briefly...

-- clowned Kansas in Hilton 77-60, and it wasn't as close as the score
-- only team to beat eventual national runner-up Texas Tech in Lubbock that year
-- beat an excellent Kansas State team (that split the regular season title with Tech) in Manhattan
-- clowned a ranked Mississippi team in Oxford
-- won the Big 12 tournament
-- made the NCAA tournament

These are substantial and memorable accomplishments by our historical standards.

This is why we use the numbers -- to take the emotion and the arbitrary choice of which binary standards out of it.
It's not arbitrary choice. It wasn't an eye test. The 2014 team accomplished more than the 2019 team. Period. Ignoring context like 2019's THT/Jacobson meltdown in Morgantown and Niang's band-aid story at the Big 12 tournament is foolish.

Emotion is why we celebrate teams. It's why sports are fun. It explains why those teams are perceived so differently to the fanbase. Looking at your data points and then deciding which reaction is appropriate without factoring in those moments is the typical arrogance of a stat dork.
 
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Sigmapolis

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It's not arbitrary choice. It wasn't an eye test. The 2014 team accomplished more than the 2019 team. Period. Ignoring context like 2019's THT/Jacobson meltdown in Morgantown and Niang's band-aid story at the Big 12 tournament is foolish.

Emotion is why we celebrate teams. It's why sports are fun. It explains why those teams are perceived so differently to the fanbase. Looking at your data points and then deciding which reaction is appropriate without factoring in those moments is the typical arrogance of a stat dork.
I think you're trying to treat me as some sort of automaton because I'm analytics-inclined. Trust me, I am perfectly capable of laughing, crying, and screaming in any combo of joy, anger, and frustration about our teams.

My parents sent me a picture after the "bloody Niang" game of my cat back home with a Band-Aid on his eyebrow and "NIANG" scrawled on it. That kitty would die a few weeks later of cancer. It's the last picture I have of him. I asked my wife to marry me the night Georges broke his foot. That 2014 team and its story will follow me until I die.

But none of these stories nor the teams discreet accomplishments, which you rightfully note, change the statistical fact that the 2014 really wasn't much different in terms of how good of a basketball team it was compared to the other seven teams we had make the NCAA tournament in the 2010s. And, conversely, the point those seven teams were about equally as good doesn't somehow undermine the discreet accomplishments that team had.

Saying "we really lucked out at the end of the OSU game when Forte missed a free throw to clinch the game and Naz hit this prayer" doesn't do anything to change the fact he hit it. And it was ******* awesome.

You can hold an emotional and analytical perspective at once.
 
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NENick

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Sig, calm down. Speaking of emotional, you seem to be getting emotional over analytical assessment.
 
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t-noah

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Sig, calm down. Speaking of emotional, you seem to be getting emotional over analytical assessment.
Used to do our own taxes until last year. The CPA/tax man did a great job. So I think we are hooked now.

So there is that. Does that make any sense? :)
 

Sigmapolis

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Sig, calm down. Speaking of emotional, you seem to be getting emotional over analytical assessment.
I just hate seeing a good season by our historical standards (2019) go in the trash because of "9-9" when the 2014 team was a few miracle wins from having an even worse conference record.

Because if they can do that once (dismiss a good season for arbitrary and emotional reasons not backed up by the numbers) then they'll do it again. And make this place a living hell doing it.
 

Cydkar

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I just hate seeing a good season by our historical standards (2019) go in the trash because of "9-9" when the 2014 team was a few miracle wins from having an even worse conference record.

Because if they can do that once (dismiss a good season for arbitrary and emotional reasons not backed up by the numbers) then they'll do it again. And make this place a living hell doing it.
If you don’t think this place is a living hell, now, I do not know what to tell you.
 

CheapClone1202

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I am sure Las Vegas enjoys taking your money with that attitude. Next thing I know you're going to be telling Marial Shayok has an ugly girlfriend so that means he lacks the confidence of an alpha male.

I bet if those two teams play 100 times, the outcome is pretty close to 50-50, yeah. I have never said the Shayok team was substantially better than the 2014 team, though. Just that they were similar overall.

View attachment 84204

Throwing out the meh/bad 2018 team, pretty much all of the squads above that made the NCAA tournament were pretty similar to one another. All of them had talent and accomplishments but also minor inconsistencies that cost them a top ten rating and the chance at a deep run in the NCAA tournament for various reasons.

I think all these teams are worthy of celebrating to about an equal degree.

I just don't see the 2014 team as somehow "special" because it pulled a particularly large number of dramatic games out of its butt in the end, because we went into that year with very limited expectations and were pleasantly surprised, and because Georges broke his foot and if not "we were going to win a national championship."

That despite the fact we wouldn't have been favored against any of the next four opponents we'd have had.
Regardless of the validity of this take, I appreciated the moneyball reference
 
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CYEATHAWK

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I just hate seeing a good season by our historical standards (2019) go in the trash because of "9-9" when the 2014 team was a few miracle wins from having an even worse conference record.

Because if they can do that once (dismiss a good season for arbitrary and emotional reasons not backed up by the numbers) then they'll do it again. And make this place a living hell doing it.
Trust me.......with TJ at the helm "they" for whatever reason will never dismiss 9-9/23-13. There are only two coaches at ISU who have experienced the patented Cyclonefanatic "winning season sucks" attitude.......Wayne and Steve. And more than likely you will never see it again.
 
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CY88CE11

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I just hate seeing a good season by our historical standards (2019) go in the trash because of "9-9" when the 2014 team was a few miracle wins from having an even worse conference record.

Because if they can do that once (dismiss a good season for arbitrary and emotional reasons not backed up by the numbers) then they'll do it again. And make this place a living hell doing it.
I mean, we were a broken foot away from having a very good shot at a natty in 2014, so in that way alone, it doesn't compare to 2019. That doesn't mean 2019 was a bad season, but making it to the sweet sixteen and losing by 5 to the eventual champion without our best player is a hell of a lot more impressive than losing to an 11 seed in the first round. We were not title contenders in 2019.
 

NENick

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I just hate seeing a good season by our historical standards (2019) go in the trash because of "9-9" when the 2014 team was a few miracle wins from having an even worse conference record.

Because if they can do that once (dismiss a good season for arbitrary and emotional reasons not backed up by the numbers) then they'll do it again. And make this place a living hell doing it.
The fallacy of your argument, IMO, is you seem to dismiss comeback wins and "miracle" shots, which is exactly what makes a season special. Shayok's 2 shots in the Big12 tournament were the same thing. 2014 was a more successful season BECAUSE that team won so many of those games.
 
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Sigmapolis

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The fallacy of your argument, IMO, is you seem to dismiss comeback wins and "miracle" shots, which is exactly what makes a season special. Shayok's 2 shots in the Big12 tournament were the same thing. 2014 was a more successful season BECAUSE that team won so many of those games.
When doing a year-to-year assessment of team quality, yes, I discount close/miracle wins that could have easily gone the other way. Those wins are fun but they are indicative of a team that is either lucky or likes to live dangerously, which usually comes back to bite them at some point.

Yes, the 2019 team had a few of those, too, especially the Shayok "got it!" three against Kansas State. But part of what made the 2014 so fun was its high number of those kinds of wins, which make the team memorable but put a small haircut on its efficiency compared to its 2010s peers.

I just find it funny a team seems to get more credit for miracle wins simply because they're more memorable when just dispatching a team by a few possessions' margin is more indicative of you truly being better than your opponent. The 2014 team certainly wins on the combination of the low expectations/good results it had and the "fun factor" of manufacturing some utterly ludicrous comebacks.

That and its one terrible game it had -- at WVU -- is a meme game because of the kung fu kick.
 
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Sigmapolis

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Trust me.......with TJ at the helm "they" for whatever reason will never dismiss 9-9/23-13. There are only two coaches at ISU who have experienced the patented Cyclonefanatic "winning season sucks" attitude.......Wayne and Steve. And more than likely you will never see it again.
TJ still isn't the Fred. Keeping in mind the complaining when he was hired, I don't think many people are going to have shrines to Coach Otzelberger in their closet like they do for you-know-who.

I mean, we were a broken foot away from having a very good shot at a natty in 2014, so in that way alone, it doesn't compare to 2019. That doesn't mean 2019 was a bad season, but making it to the sweet sixteen and losing by 5 to the eventual champion without our best player is a hell of a lot more impressive than losing to an 11 seed in the first round. We were not title contenders in 2019.
Our BT ranking that year was #25.

We would have had to beat...

#14 = UConn
#8 = Michigan State
#3 = Florida
#22 = Kentucky

Possible? Sure, but it is technically possible for any of the teams in the field.

But those were four hard games where we wouldn't have been favored in any of them even if Georges was 100%. The likely outcome is we stumble somewhere and tap out.

Still would have been a great season/run, though.
 

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