Run-Pass (Im)Balance

[CascadeClone]

I know this is well-covered ground, but just to put some stats on it:



The numbers bear out that when they get cute and throw it around too much, bad things happen. Was tempted to look at last year too, maybe someone else has the time. Mea culpa if any of the stats are wrong, quickly copied from ESPN.

I know correlation isn't causation, but the "playing from behind and had to throw" argument is trash; 3 losses by total of 10 points, and never down by more than 11 points (I think) which was in the 1st half so plenty of time.

Not sure why it happens,hopefully the coaches will figure it out.

 

[isufbcurt]

I know this is well-covered ground, but just to put some stats on it:

View attachment 68101

The numbers bear out that when they get cute and throw it around too much, bad things happen. Was tempted to look at last year too, maybe someone else has the time. Mea culpa if any of the stats are wrong, quickly copied from ESPN.

I know correlation isn't causation, but the "playing from behind and had to throw" argument is trash; 3 losses by total of 10 points, and never down by more than 11 points (I think) which was in the 1st half so plenty of time.

Not sure why it happens,hopefully the coaches will figure it out.

Yup 3 loses = 3 most imbalanced.

Also, add in the bad conditions in game 2 in which we threw 65% and the hot conditions in game 4 where we threw 62% (if we tried to run more we might have been able to wear down their defense)

 

[CloneFan4]

I know this is well-covered ground, but just to put some stats on it:

View attachment 68101

The numbers bear out that when they get cute and throw it around too much, bad things happen. Was tempted to look at last year too, maybe someone else has the time. Mea culpa if any of the stats are wrong, quickly copied from ESPN.

I know correlation isn't causation, but the "playing from behind and had to throw" argument is trash; 3 losses by total of 10 points, and never down by more than 11 points (I think) which was in the 1st half so plenty of time.

Not sure why it happens,hopefully the coaches will figure it out.

With Breece Hall and the ground game coming on so strong there really was no excuse for the imbalance last Saturday.

As Curt pointed out above, it is no coincidence that we've lost our 3 most imbalanced games.

 

[CoachHines3]

Those are some compelling numbers.
RUN THE BALL MANNING.

 

[bluestarcyclone]

Be curious what baylor would look like if you take out the 3TD drives in the 4th quarter, which were almost entirely passing as i recall.

The OSU game, yeah it felt like we were playing like we were down 20 when we weren't

 

[clonedude]

I know this is well-covered ground, but just to put some stats on it:

View attachment 68101

The numbers bear out that when they get cute and throw it around too much, bad things happen. Was tempted to look at last year too, maybe someone else has the time. Mea culpa if any of the stats are wrong, quickly copied from ESPN.

I know correlation isn't causation, but the "playing from behind and had to throw" argument is trash; 3 losses by total of 10 points, and never down by more than 11 points (I think) which was in the 1st half so plenty of time.

Not sure why it happens,hopefully the coaches will figure it out.

Wow, you can't get any more clear cut than that.

Unbalanced towards the pass = loss
Balanced = win

 

[bosco]

Matt Campbell: we want to run the football.

Proceeds to throw the ball the most times in 20 years.

 

[flycy]

True 2 seasons ago too, see Texas game.

 

[madguy30]

And at Baylor they were getting 3-4 yards here and there on the run. Dominating? No. But keep at it and let a rhythm develop.

And agree that the 'playing from behind' mantra is crap vs. OSU. It wasn't like they were down by 2-3 TDs. ISU got the ball back at 7:30ish left on the pick 6 possession with the game TIED. Could have ran several times over and had plenty of time to get down field especially as leaky as OSU is vs. the run.

 

[cyrocksmypants]

I know this is well-covered ground, but just to put some stats on it:

View attachment 68101

The numbers bear out that when they get cute and throw it around too much, bad things happen. Was tempted to look at last year too, maybe someone else has the time. Mea culpa if any of the stats are wrong, quickly copied from ESPN.

I know correlation isn't causation, but the "playing from behind and had to throw" argument is trash; 3 losses by total of 10 points, and never down by more than 11 points (I think) which was in the 1st half so plenty of time.

Not sure why it happens,hopefully the coaches will figure it out.

Weren’t we down 20-0 against Baylor?

 

[cygrads]

CMC needs to have a manager count runs vs passes and when it starts getting out of whack have him run up to the press box and slap Manning in the back of the head.

 

[Cycsk]

Matt Campbell: we want to run the football.

Proceeds to throw the ball the most times in 20 years.

I'm still a bit confused. Campbell said in a press conference that he doesn't come into a game planning to throw 60 times. Then why did we? Did Campbell choose to do so? Manning? Purdy? And why?

I know that Campbell "goes with the flow" in games, sometimes with strange results, such as not playing Lanning the game after his record performance.

I'm still a huge fan of our coaching staff, but would love to know what happened.

The bottom line is that for all the grief we are feeling, we were one overthrow to Milton away from winning the game! If Purdy had taken a little off that long ball, I doubt if we would be having the same conversation. One less pick or one less break-down by the defense in the first half and we might be singing the praises of the surprising imbalance of pass/run.

 

[dualthreat]

Or is it that when we can run the ball effectively, we're more likely to win?

I don't think Manning or Campbell are against running the ball... but when the team you are playing is stopping the run, you call fewer run plays.

(BTW, we definitely threw too many passes against OSU, but that's the first time this season I've felt that way)

And 52 passes with 560 total yards, 34 points and a W vs Tech looks alright to me.

 

[Daserop]

I know this is well-covered ground, but just to put some stats on it:

View attachment 68101

The numbers bear out that when they get cute and throw it around too much, bad things happen. Was tempted to look at last year too, maybe someone else has the time. Mea culpa if any of the stats are wrong, quickly copied from ESPN.

I know correlation isn't causation, but the "playing from behind and had to throw" argument is trash; 3 losses by total of 10 points, and never down by more than 11 points (I think) which was in the 1st half so plenty of time.

Not sure why it happens,hopefully the coaches will figure it out.

The reason why is to quote Jay Jordan, "ISU needs to win in the margins". In ISU three losses:

ISU vs TOE: ISU had 2 turnovers. TOE 0 turnovers.
ISU vs Baylor: ISU had 2 turnovers & 2 missed FG. Baylor: 0 turnovers.
ISU vs OSU: ISU had 3 turnovers & 1 missed FG. OSU: 1 turnover.

ISU currently has made 10 FG & missed 6 FG this year. Equating to 63% on the year.
ISU is currently tied for 91 in turnover margin at -3.

People like to complain about how lucky Baylor is. Well they are winning the margins. Baylor is #16 in turnover margin at +6 and have only missed 3 FG this year.

When you don't win the margins you will lose games against quality teams.

Sagarin Rankings:

Baylor: 15 (L)
TOE: 16 (L)
OSU: 22 (L)
TCU: 29 (W)
TTU: 52 (W)
WV: 57 (W)
UNI: 107 (W)
ULM: 122 (W)

Remaining Teams

OU: 6
Texas: 21
KSU: 28
Kansas: 83

 

[moores2]

I understand that OSU is extremely aggressive defensively on first down. They like to get teams into 2nd and more than 10 if they can. (Caused a couple of backwards runs), but after re-watching the game, we completely abandoned the first down run all day long! Many of these were incomplete which put us into 2nd and 3rd and long.Have to pick up those 3 yds on 1st down, then you can run or pass on second.

 

[CascadeClone]

Weren’t we down 20-0 against Baylor?

Duh! Good catch, and you are of course correct.

 

[isufbcurt]

Weren’t we down 20-0 against Baylor?

True but we were still throwing way to much early in the game.

 

[madguy30]

Or is it that when we can run the ball effectively, we're more likely to win?

I don't think Manning or Campbell are against running the ball... but when the team you are playing is stopping the run, you call fewer run plays.

(BTW, we definitely threw too many passes against OSU, but that's the first time this season I've felt that way)

And 52 passes with 560 total yards, 34 points and a W vs Tech looks alright to me.

Has there been a time this season where the running game has been officially stopped?

 

[SECyclone]

I think stats need to be split by quarters because we go conservative with a lead to milk the clock some games.

 

[dualthreat]

Has there been a time this season where the running game has been officially stopped?

no idea what the stats say, but we were pretty ineffective in the Baylor game