Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[isucy86]

Also I really feel like the SEC and Big10 are happy with the current set up. The dust has barely settled on the previous realignment, I think it’s going to be much later then 2030 before see see other additions. Especially when outside of ND none are actually additive to the conferences

Whenever TV negotiations occur being additive can be manipulated if TV partner rights fees increase significantly.

Plus ND is a different animal from a TV valuation perspective. So the Big 10 could add ND and lower TV valuation school and the package would be additive.

Finally, this battle for increasing CFP teams and Big 10/SEC dominating the number of CFP bids is the other aspect of being additive. Last year's 12 team playoff with ONLY 11 games generated TV rights fees that were in the ballpark of the Big10's annual TV deal.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Lol, "B1G-like football" draws massive ratings and viewership every year.

Lmao

Not because of “BIG” style of play.

The BIG draws ratings because of games with big brands like OSU, and then because of there being a lot of BIG fans

Do better

 

[Clonehomer]

Whenever TV negotiations occur being additive can be manipulated if TV partner rights fees increase significantly.

Plus ND is a different animal from a TV valuation perspective. So the Big 10 could add ND and lower TV valuation school and the package would be additive.

Finally, this battle for increasing CFP teams and Big 10/SEC dominating the number of CFP bids is the other aspect of being additive. Last year's 12 team playoff with ONLY 11 games generated TV rights fees that were in the ballpark of the Big10's annual TV deal.

Another angle is that by consolidating all those big teams into a conference playing each other opens opportunities for other programs to rise in their place. Someone’s gotta lose those games. I feel like there is still a natural cap on the number of teams that make it in a conference just because of how far down they’ll be in the standings.

So a former national power like BYU or SMU could throw enough resources to fill those voids in the ACC or Big12 to become perennial CFP contenders. Or, maybe there will be new teams like Texas Tech that rise up? Think about a program like Oregon. They have no reason to have been at the top of college football m, except they had a rich donor.

I guess my point is that adding a CFP contender to a conference doesn’t necessarily mean you will get any additional teams. Maybe you just give someone else a chance that they hadn’t had before.

 

[Gonzo]

Lmao

Not because of “BIG” style of play.

The BIG draws ratings because of games with big brands like OSU, and then because of there being a lot of BIG fans

Do better

Lol, whatever helps you sleep.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Feel if Big 10 goes beyond 20, then additional West Coast schools will be in the mix.

Historically, BTN carriage fees have been a big reason for expansion targets. With subscription services & DTC Fox, Peacock it will be curious if market size continues to play a dominant expansion criteria along with brand.

I’d think the BIG only looks West once there is resolution on the ACC targets. Those spots may be needed in attempt to land UNC.

UNC as the keystone to realignment is fascinating.

I don’t see UNC going to the BIG and risk having NCST benefit from the SEC brand. Plus the SEC can easily add 3 other ACC peers with UNC, which in combination with So Carolina, UGA, Tennessee, etc is much more appealing than Midwest and west coast opponents

Would the BIG be willing to similarly take 4 or more ACC?

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I just can't see a world where the Big Ten wants anything to do with Cal and then it makes taking Stanford awkward.

 

[FinalFourCy]

I tend to agree. I think 2030 is when the serious discussions will start to happen. If both conferences want UNC, and they’re still on level ground by then, neither will sit and wait for the other to make a move. I’d target UNC leaving 2-3 years before the end of the ACC TV deal similar to OuT. So negotiations in 2030 with the move starting in the 2033 or 2034 season.

But, that’s a long time away. And the entire landscape of college sports will likely change by then. So who knows? Maybe we’ll have a centralized management structure by then and not independent conferences?

Serious discussions start in 2030??? Yeah, and OUT started serious discussions only in 2021.

Negotiations are already happening. Arguably they have been occurring for years. Getting the settlement a big first step.

I’d bet a lot on moves being known in next year or two, with moves by 2030. Maybe more come 2032 Armageddon when all the postseason deals expire, along with BIG

 

[isucy86]

I’d think the BIG only looks West once there is resolution on the ACC targets. Those spots may be needed in attempt to land UNC.

UNC as the keystone to realignment is fascinating.

I don’t see UNC wanting to go to the BIG and thus risk having NCST benefit from the SEC brand. Plus the SEC can easily add 3 other ACC peers, which in combination with So Carolina, UGA, Tennessee, etc is much more appealing than Midwest and west coast opponents

Would the BIG be willing to similarly take 4 or more ACC?

IMO by 2036/37 at the latest the Big10 will get to 24 teams. If the TV Rights fee marketplace is hot in 2030, then the Big10 could get to 24 teams in the next round of negotiations. That and I think the Big10/SEC will force Notre Dames hand regarding a CFP path.

Not as sold as some on UNC to the Big10. Just don't think the Big10 states are a recruiting territory that UNC can leverage. Whereas, feel like UNC can leverage the SEC states to improve their football and hoops recruiting. Conversely, if the Big10 adds UVA, UNC, GT, etc that does open those states for Big10 schools to recruit.

The Big10 probably doesn't need take more than 3-4 top ACC teams because they already have MD (former ACC). Plus, PSU and Rutgers could placed in an eastern division within the Big10.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Lol, whatever helps you sleep.

This is all you have? Whatever helps you sleep is right.

Everyone knows what is meant by BIG-like games. That style of play, whether you agree it being an apt description, is not why the BIG gets good ratings

Do better or stfu

 

[Clonehomer]

Negotiations start in 2030???

Negotiations are already happening. Arguably they have been occurring for years.

I’d bet a lot on moves being known in net year or two, with moves by 2030. Maybe more come 2032 Armageddon when all the postseason deals expire, along with BIG

I’m sure discussions have happened and lawyers have been asked about the process. But real negotiations with terms written down? I can’t imagine that level will happen until they’re within a couple years of the move date. Everything would be informal and verbal to avoid FOIA requests at this point.

If this were to happen in 2030, I can’t imagine UNC would’ve extended their GOR until 2036. That’d be an unprecedented amount of damages they’d be up for. Neither the Big10 or SEC can take enough teams to dissolve the ACC on their own. So to work in tandem to poach enough teams to do that would be subject to a very interesting collusion lawsuit that would have massive stakes.

But, this is CFB. We’ve certainly seen crazy before.

 

[Gonzo]

This is all you have? Whatever helps you sleep is right.

Everyone knows what is meant by BIG-like games. That style of play, whether you agree it being an apt description, is not why the BIG gets good ratings

Do better or stfu

Yeah, games people want to watch.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

You think the Maryland AD is misinformed?

We’ll be adding this to the long list of your incorrect realignment predictions

He was asked his thoughts and he gave them, AD’s have been talking about these topics and have been wrong about these topics for awhile.

He could be right but also could be totally wrong. Barley wrapped up the season with the new travel commitments and need to see the dust settle there first. The ACC schools don’t move the needle enough to really jump at an offer unless the media deals get really outrageous or they take major concessions.

Outside of UNC almost every ACC school has some major issues that would make inclusion less of a slam dunk.

If UNC isn’t involved there is legit zero need to add teams

 

[FinalFourCy]

IMO by 2036/37 at the latest the Big10 will get to 24 teams. If the TV Rights fee marketplace is hot in 2030, then the Big10 could get to 24 teams in the next round of negotiations. That and I think the Big10/SEC will force Notre Dames hand regarding a CFP path.

Not as sold as some on UNC to the Big10. Just don't think the Big10 states are a recruiting territory that UNC can leverage. Whereas, feel like UNC can leverage the SEC states to improve their football and hoops recruiting. Conversely, if the Big10 adds UVA, UNC, GT, etc that does open those states for Big10 schools to recruit.

The Big10 probably doesn't need take more than 3-4 top ACC teams because they already have MD (former ACC). Plus, PSU and Rutgers could placed in an eastern division within the Big10.

The BIG only being able to offer Rutgers, PSU, and Maryland in the east is why they’ll have to at least match the SEC’s willingness to take 3 other ACC schools in addition to UNC.

I don’t think the BIG has much of a chance, but if they also let UNC bring Duke, Clemson, etc, perhaps

I guess if ND were to be BIG bound with UNC, I could see just UNC and ND

Independence isn’t up to ND, but it’ll take some BIG/Fox and SEC/ESPN horse trading to get them to join a conference.

Tough to see the BIG getting both top ACC schools and ND- unless espn benefited by getting the ND away games and perhaps get back in BIG lottery. That would really test the notion the SEC needs ESPN as much or more than ESPN needs the SEC.

Would love to see such strife. BIG adds UNC, ND, FSU, Clemson, Miami…. Maybe see if UT is still a *****. Talk about a shift in power.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Yeah, games people want to watch.

Whatever helps you sleep at night!

Big 10 West in particular is known for sloppy pillow fights.

Rest assured, as large state schools, they still draw well enough to collect the OSU welfare check

 

[CycloneT]

Pitt?

Louisville

 

[CycloneT]

Serious discussions start in 2030??? Yeah, and OUT started serious discussions only in 2021.

Negotiations are already happening. Arguably they have been occurring for years. Getting the settlement a big first step.

I’d bet a lot on moves being known in next year or two, with moves by 2030. Maybe more come 2032 Armageddon when all the postseason deals expire, along with BIG

Yep these conference including the B12 will want these schools under their banner before the next media rights negotiations. 27-28 is when parts start moving

 

[qwerty]

Also I really feel like the SEC and Big10 are happy with the current set up. The dust has barely settled on the previous realignment, I think it’s going to be much later then 2030 before see see other additions. Especially when outside of ND none are actually additive to the conferences

According to this guy (it is on the interwebs so it has to be true), the B1G will be adding Cal, Stanford, Virginia Tech.

 

[Gonzo]

According to this guy (it is on the interwebs so it has to be true), the B1G will be adding Cal, Stanford, Virginia Tech.

View attachment 155009

Yeah I don't see the B1G expanding more out west before they go more mid-Altantic and southeast regions.

 

[cykadelic2]

IMO by 2036/37 at the latest the Big10 will get to 24 teams. If the TV Rights fee marketplace is hot in 2030, then the Big10 could get to 24 teams in the next round of negotiations. That and I think the Big10/SEC will force Notre Dames hand regarding a CFP path.

The CFB TV marketplace is not going to be "hot" in the 2030 timeframe if the SEC and B10 expand and both are 100% tied to ESPN and Fox with CFP rights continuing to be controlled by one or the other.

The only way it becomes truly "hot" (doubling/tripling existing revenues) is with P4/G5/CFP media rights pooling and bidding them out NFL style, rational geographic realignment of P4 into 7x10 conferences, separate P7 & G5 CFPs and a 16-team P7 CFP that doesn't conflict with any NFL games and doesn't extend into mid-JAN (which is highly doable).

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Explain to me how you compel the G5 to institute a playoff that they don't want without getting tied up in court for years. The limited access they have now to the CFP is better for them both financially and perception wise. They don't want to play for a 'championship' that cements their status as less than.

After that, how do you compel the Big Ten and SEC to come to the table for something they don't want either. Frankly, I'm not sure it's in the Big 12s best interest at this point. You've survived and get to pick the bones of the ACCs carcass in 4 years to set yourself up as the 'best of the rest' and that's not a bad place to be.