Friendly reminder-- AAU status doesn't matter at all, don't mention it.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
- Start date
Not the best, but still good. That 5M number is the highest Ireland rated game, so that’s the peak we’re comparing it to.Good? Bad?
Saturday’s Kansas State-Iowa State college football game from Dublin, Ireland, averaged 4.01 million viewers on ESPN — down about 20% from 5.0 million for Florida State-Georgia Tech last year
Viewership dips, but still strong, for college football's Ireland game
A lower profile matchup resulted in a smaller audience, but college football's Ireland kickoff game still did well in the ratings.www.sportsmediawatch.com
Also the FSU game was hyped up by ESPN, college gameday broadcast live from Ireland as a lead-in (ESPN didn’t even have college gameday this year) and FSU was coming off an undefeated regular season and expected to be a CFP contender.
Our game did 13% better than 2023’s game between big brand Notre Dame and Navy. Which was on OTA on NBC. It was down 9% from 2022’s game between Nebraska and Northwestern, but that game was also on OTA on Fox and also had an on-site Big Noon Kickoff lead in as well.
So not great, but certainly not terrible. I think the execs will be satisfied, but not ecstatic with that number.
First of all, by bundling G5 regular season and playoff rights with P7 rights pooling, G5 payouts will also at least double. G5 schools aren't going to turn down (and go to court) a doubling of TV revenues and true access to a national championship for all of their conference title winners (which they currently don't have in any fashion). Also, no G5 team will ever win a FB national championship and they will have to cut numerous non-rev sports if the same state of affairs are continued.
In a media rights pooling scenario, you bundle a portion of G5 regular season and playoff rights, for example, in a package with SEC/ACC and a portion of P7 CFP rights. Give ESPN the right of first refusal to that package since they currently hold SEC/ACC rights. Do likewise with PAC/B10/G5/CFP packages (give Fox right of first refusal), Big East/SWC/G5/CFP and ND/B12/G5/CFP packages and truly open up bidding for Amazon, Google, Apple, CBS, etc. and their deep pockets dying to buy rights to the 2nd most watched sport in the US.
And as stated multiple times previously, both the B10 and SEC will at least double their existing revenue streams and with an element of unequal revenue sharing based on TV ratings, they will maintain some semblance of revenue advantage.
And do really think the Feds will grant an ant-trust exemption to a sport currently run by ESPN and Fox that has the ability to double or triple their revenues that saves the majority of existing non-rev sports and their associated scholarship opportunities and while also reeling in avoidable expenses with rational geographic realignment?
Answer: They won't.
Signed,
Cody Campbell
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Appreciate the passion but you know this isn’t happening. Campbell isn’t saving anything and this will just fade away like all these other similar ideas.
Gotta ask, do you actually think this is going to happen? You have to know by now with all the other wrong calls you made regarding this specific issue that it’s not but I’m curious why you think this time is different.
THE G5 DOES NOT WANT THEIR OWN PLAYOFF.
None of the newcomers would have taken the financial risk to jump just to end up right back in the de facto FCS and none of the legacies want to give up playing at the highest level of football. I find it ironic that you bemoan what happened to Oregon St/Wazzu but want to do the exact same thing to 65 other schools.
It's all pie-in-the-sky make believe anyway so I don't know why I let myself get dragged into this. It's not happening. The Big Ten and SEC have all the power and they like the current setup.
The only other "wrong" call that is in your mind is ESPN not opting out of the ACC contract but as previously mentioned, their timeline was extended to 2030 with reduced exit fees by ACC members. ESPN kicked the ACC can down the road.
The current P4 state with the ridiculous oversized conferences in the stranglehold of ESPN and Fox that leaves millions/billions of media dollars being left on the table and massive cuts of non rev sports at all levels is not sustainable or acceptable. The Feds will have to intervene at some point.
And if CFB wants an antitrust exemption, they likely won't get it from Trump/Campbell if ESPN/SEC and Fox/B10 don't agree to media rights pooling and rational realignment while the ESPN/Fox puppets turn down millions or billions of dollars and trigger more non-rev sport cuts.
You didn’t really answer the question of if you actually think this is going to happen. So I guess I’ll ask again do you actually think this is going to happen or is this another project Rudy that you were so high on?
I was definitely underwhelmed by the pre-game hype and lack of ESPN Gameday coverage before the game... is it because this didn't involve a Big Ten or SEC team?
THE G5 WILL NOT TURN DOWN A SOLUTION THAT DOUBLES OR TRIPLES THEIR EXISTING TV REVENUES FLOWS, SAVES THEIR NON-REV SPORTS AND PROVIDES THIER TEAMS A SHOT AT A TRUE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP LIKE EVERY OTHER DIVISION IN FOOTBALL AND LIKE EVERY OTHER NCAA SPORT!
GOT IT?
Couple things:
- The Big10 isn't "100% tied" to FOX. Fox might have a bigger voice due to equity stake, but NBC & CBS are heavily tied to the Big10 after the 2023 TV deal. In fact those two networks supply the Big10 with 66% of the Big10 TV rights revenue- around $700M annually.
- For the TV market to be hot, Big10 and SEC revenue would have to grow about 10-15% annually beyond the current deal ($8B @ 7yrs).
- The Big10 & SEC have one easy avenue to increase rights fees that the NFL doesn't. Adding game inventory by adding high media value schools. So over the next 15ish years the Big10 & SEC can continue to poach high media value teams from the ACC & Big12.
- Pooling negotiations is a popular take because that's been successful for the NFL. But there is a big difference- the NFL has 32 teams! The CFB P4 has 67 teams. So I am hard-presssed to see how the Big10 & SEC benefit with pooling their TV rights with the ACC & Big12. Especially, when they can just poach elite brands from the ACC & Big12.
- The other outlier are streaming giants like Amazon, Netflix, Apple, etc. If they become aggressive bidders then CFB TV rights revenue could heat up if we see the subscription based model replace OTA as the primary distribution of the best games.
Yes, this will happen because it's such a no brainer on a variety of counts. Campbell is in place to push these initiatives and certainly has Yormark's backing and I am sure he has non-public support of this from multiple B10 and SEC Presidents/ADs (some of whom were CST or Project Rudy Ambassadors). And this doesn't have to happen within the Project Rudy parameters including PE.
I would not say at all, if all things are equal, outside AAU membership, in a decision between 2 schools. The B1G will take the AAU before the non AAU.
Is it an absolute, no, but it is an extra feather in the cap of those that have it when it comes to B1G.
In the end if it means millions more to take a non AAU school, then they will take that money. That being said I dont think any school without AAU or at least working toward AAU membership is even on the radar of the B1G, so in the end it wont matter.
Then why haven't they dropped to FCS if they want to play a 'true' national title and to save costs to fund their non-revs? Why did App State, Delaware, Western Kentucky, Georgia Southern, etc move up when they were always in contention for national titles in a cost controlled environment? Why would the Dakotas give their left nuts to move up when they are winning all the 'true' national titles?
Why wouldn't the B1G take UNC and Duke? They'd have the biggest rivalries in both CFB and CBB, plus dominate from the NE to the Mid-Atlantic.
UVA is a small market team and Maryland already gave them access to the DC market. Plus UNC and Duke are far more appealing from a TV product.
UVA is a small market team and Maryland already gave them access to the DC market. Plus UNC and Duke are far more appealing from a TV product.
UVA is a Top 5 public university. That's the appeal to the Big Ten.
Personally I am very ok with this. Outside of being an academic powerhouse with a rich alumni base Virginia doesn’t add really anything to the conference. Duke doesn’t bring it in football but you can sell that rivalry and other basketball matchups to make up for it while capitalizing on NC’s state growth.
Math might not math for the dealmakers but I don’t think many people in the conference would mind that add.
It doesn't matter to them at all. Lack of AAU status doesn't keep a team out, and AAU status won't get a team in. Other factors (media $) are used to make the decision as it related to sports.
As it related to sports -- Its a marketing talking point used by the conference to prop itself up as being academically superior, and an easy way to say no to schools they don't want in the conference for other reasons (media $).
