Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[State2015]

They didn't watch Oregon v. tOSU? Or any of the Bama v. Vandy game? Or UT v. OU?

That seems weird. Great matchups are great matchups, great games are great games, whether they're in your conference or not. Sounds like those guys are missing out on some good football.

I definitely still watch these games but my interest in them has really declined vs 10yrs ago. My interests start at the top with ISU games, then any big B12 game or any top 10 matchup, then Iowas game. A random SEC game that’s not a top matchup really doesn’t interest me at all unless one of the big dogs is about to get upset

 

[Cyclonsin]

I definitely still watch these games but my interest in them has really declined vs 10yrs ago. My interests start at the top with ISU games, then any big B12 game or any top 10 matchup, then Iowas game. A random SEC game that’s not a top matchup really doesn’t interest me at all unless one of the big dogs is about to get upset

I like this exercise. Here is what my typical CFB viewing hierarchy looks like:

1. ISU game
2. Big XII Rivalry game I expect to be close
3. Non-Big XII Rivalry game I expect to be close
4. Ranked Big XII game
5. Ranked non-Big XII game
6. Big XII game I expect to be close
7. Non-Big XII game I expect to be close

And if there isn't anything on that falls into one of those categories, I'll find something better to do with my time.

 

[jbhtexas]

Don't confuse more popular with more profitable.

Everyone is hating on Sankey and Pettiti (and rightfully so), but remember it's ESPN/Fox/et al that are writing the checks and driving the action. Sankey and Pettiti are just collaborating minions.

The action is ultimately "driven" by the powerful athletic conferences and big-name schools schools who have decided to prostitute themselves for the biggest, fattest payout they can get. When you take the pimp's money, you do what the pimp says.

Sometimes you are a Vanderbilt and get kept around to give pedicures to the money-makers. Or sometimes you are a Washington State...somewhat attractive, but not attractive enough to avoid getting kicked to the curb.

 

[Cloneon]

I like this exercise. Here is what my typical CFB viewing hierarchy looks like:

1. ISU game
2. Big XII Rivalry game I expect to be close
3. Non-Big XII Rivalry game I expect to be close
4. Ranked Big XII game
5. Ranked non-Big XII game
6. Big XII game I expect to be close
7. Non-Big XII game I expect to be close

And if there isn't anything on that falls into one of those categories, I'll find something better to do with my time.

Though the sample size is small, it's still unanimous: Iowa State fans will dramatically watch fewer OOC games.

 

[CascadeClone]

Though the sample size is small, it's still unanimous: Iowa State fans will dramatically watch fewer OOC games.

And it won't matter to the TV money one bit.

They only have about 6 big slots on big networks to fill - that is where 80% of the money is for the TV guys. And that's still true even if viewership goes down 10-20% on those 6 slots. The rest are smaller channels, smaller audiences, and/or competing against the big slots. Those just aren't worth much to them.

They will pay big money for the 6 slots (from the P2) and peanuts for the filler games.

And oh by the way, as the money becomes crazy unbalanced over time, the non-P2 teams will really drop off the rankings. You think it's bad now with 14 of top 25 from the P2? Just wait. It's a death spiral.

The only 2 good possible outcomes I see for ISU are:
1. the "Super league" idea where 70 teams all get together in a sense of altruism (LOFL)
or
2. a "Premier league" with about 20 teams from the P2 splits off and the other 50-ish become "college football" and there's enough critical mass there to make it fun, competitive, balanced, and important

 

[Cyclonsin]

Though the sample size is small, it's still unanimous: Iowa State fans will dramatically watch fewer OOC games.

Eh, I wouldn't lump me in with that. Sure, given comparable Big XII and OOC games, I'll usually pick the Big XII game, but the majority of the time there isn't an ISU or Big XII rivalry game on, so I'll flip over to whatever is most interesting in that window. If you remove the ISU game (the only time I'm not flipping between 3/4 different games), I bet I spend 75% of my time watching OOC games.

It's only a couple of weeks, so a bad sample size, but here's what I've paid attention to the past 2 Saturdays, sorted by approximate percentage of time tuned into each during their window:

10/5:
Early window (spent most of this time doing other stuff):
SMU-Louisville

Afternoon window:
Vandy-Bama
Georgia-Auburn
Nebby-Rutgers
Ohio State-Iowa

Evening window:
Iowa State-Baylor (90% of this window)
Arky-UT
Clemson-FSU
UF-UCF
Minny-USC

Big XII After Dark:
Miami-Cal
TT-'Zona


10/12:
Early window:
Ga Tech-Miami
SCAR-Bama
Iowa-UW

Afternoon window:
Penn State-USC
Cal-Pitt
Cincy-UCF
Louisville-Virginia
Illinois-Purdue
BYU-'Zona
Georgia-Miss State

Evening window:
ISU-WVU
LSU-Ole Miss

Big XII After Dark:
K State-CU

 

[MugNight]

Last night ESPN had a mock CFP based on current AP ranking. Granted, these will change. There are head to heads coming that should knock some up and some down.

The breakdown was:
5 SEC (UGA, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, LSU)
3 B1G (Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon)
2 ACC (Clemson, Miami)
1 XII (ISU)
1 G5 (Boise St)

First 2 out were ND and BYU.

All moot because it’s based on AP and it’s only week 8, but interesting nonetheless.

 

[jbhtexas]

Last night ESPN had a mock CFP based on current AP ranking. Granted, these will change. There are head to heads coming that should knock some up and some down.

The breakdown was:
5 SEC (UGA, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, LSU)
3 B1G (Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon)
2 ACC (Clemson, Miami)
1 XII (ISU)
1 G5 (Boise St)

First 2 out were ND and BYU.

All moot because it’s based on AP and it’s only week 8, but interesting nonetheless.

Things seem to be pretty much going as planned then...although the Big Ten is underperforming by one team...

 

[Bestaluckcy]

If Indiana keeps winning they will do a Cinderella, to edge out one of the SEC teams yet. The SEC teams play each other so will have two losses at least except for Texas maybe.

 

[Kinch]

While we’re still far away from hitting critical mass, one thing the P4 schools will have to contend with are dwindling football participation numbers in high school. Even Texas is starting to see a pretty steady and relatively large decline.

Youth football participation continues to fall in Texas as parents worry about brain injuries

Demographic changes and the wider availability of other activities like lacrosse and soccer have also contributed to the trend.

www.texasstandard.org

 

[jctisu]

Isn’t that the whole logic of why a super league will never happen despite what many on here think?

To me this is what it’s like, a giant game of chicken.

Most rational people think the BIG and SEC are using a position of power, but probably some empty threats to actually breaking off. Because that’s a HUGE gamble on their part.

Then you have the ACC And Big 12 where they could try and call their bluff because they don’t think the BIG and SEC actually have the balls to do this. But that’s also a gamble.

It really comes down to whether or not you think the BIG and SEC really will have the balls to break away.

I don’t think they do for many reasons, many of which you have laid out.

So if you basically know or believe these are really empty threats, the Big 12 and ACC could try calling it and wrestling back a little more equality. But nobody is going to be the one to put their neck on the line in case they are wrong.

Fascinating stuff.

 

[jctisu]

Don't confuse more popular with more profitable.

Everyone is hating on Sankey and Pettiti (and rightfully so), but remember it's ESPN/Fox/et al that are writing the checks and driving the action. Sankey and Pettiti are just collaborating minions.

So much this. Look folks this is all about traditional media giants like Disney/ESPN and Fox trying to outlast the big tech companies as long as possible. They are doing everything to ward them off, so much that they went in on a now blocked deal with Venue sports together. It’s very obvious they realize working together allows them to stick around longer. The enemy of my enemy is my friend type of thing.

 

[cyfan92]

Has anyone done a deep dive into TV ratings for the 2024 season?

I know the Big 12 gets secondary TV slots, but how are we performing versus other years and against the ACC?

College Football TV Ratings

College football TV ratings for the 2024 regular season, bowls, College Football Playoff and National Championship.

www.sportsmediawatch.com

Seems like the Big 12 After Dark is doing well by this and others not so much..

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Has anyone done a deep dive into TV ratings for the 2024 season?

I know the Big 12 gets secondary TV slots, but how are we performing versus other years and against the ACC?

College Football TV Ratings

College football TV ratings for the 2024 regular season, bowls, College Football Playoff and National Championship.

www.sportsmediawatch.com

Seems like the Big 12 After Dark is doing well by this and others not so much..

Colorado has been a fantastic add for Big12 ratings

 

[FriendlySpartan]

To me this is what it’s like a giant game of chicken.

Most rational people think the BIG and SEC are using a position of power, but probably some empty threats to actually breaking off. Because that’s a HUGE gamble on their part.

Then you have the ACC And Big 12 where they could try and call their bluff because they don’t think the BIG and SEC actually have the balls to do this. But that’s also a gamble.

It really comes down to whether or not you think the BIG and SEC really will have the balls to break away.

I don’t think they do for many reasons, many which you have laid out.

So if you basically know or believe these are really empty threats, the Big 12 and ACC could try calling it and wresting back a little more equality. But nobody is going to be the one to put their neck on the line in case they are wrong.

Fascinating stuff.

Love this and agree.

I think another possible analogy is that both conference groups are playing Russian roulette daring the other to pull the trigger only the Big12 has a magnum in its hand and the SEC has a BB gun. You’re still gonna get hurt with the bb but you will most likely live if you pull the trigger only you will be worse for doing it.

 

[Gonzo]

I like this exercise. Here is what my typical CFB viewing hierarchy looks like:

1. ISU game
2. Big XII Rivalry game I expect to be close
3. Non-Big XII Rivalry game I expect to be close
4. Ranked Big XII game
5. Ranked non-Big XII game
6. Big XII game I expect to be close
7. Non-Big XII game I expect to be close

And if there isn't anything on that falls into one of those categories, I'll find something better to do with my time.

Good stuff. Mine would be:

1. Iowa game
2. Top-10 matchup regardless of conference
3. Ranked B1G matchup
4. ISU game
5. Ranked non-B1G matchup
6. B1G rivalry matchup
7. Any other game I expect to be close

If none of this applies by 9 pm Saturday night I'll look to see if there's any boxing on.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

The question is does Fox and ESPN want to form an NFL light super league and if so, how many teams are they going to take in the league. Both networks have contracts that run for 5 to 10 years out to broadcast games from both the ACC and B12, so are they going to walk away or buyout the remaining years of those deals to set up this super league? I really doubt it.

The B10 and SEC are going to use their clout to enlarge the playoff to 14 teams and then get 4 from each league guaranteed each season, but that would also leave 2 each for the ACC and B12. Any more than 4 from the two leagues is where it gets dicey and the other two leagues could call their bluff.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

The question is does Fox and ESPN want to form an NFL light super league and if so, how many teams are they going to take in the league. Both networks have contracts that run for 5 to 10 years out to broadcast games from both the ACC and B12, so are they going to walk away or buyout the remaining years of those deals to set up this super league? I really doubt it.

The B10 and SEC are going to use their clout to enlarge the playoff to 14 teams and then get 4 from each league guaranteed each season, but that would also leave 2 each for the ACC and B12. Any more than 4 from the two leagues is where it gets dicey and the other two leagues could call their bluff.

I mean there isn’t anything to bluff the 4-4-2-2 thing was already offered and shot down. Usually you don’t increase the ask once a lower one was already downvoted

 

[1SEIACLONE]

I mean there isn’t anything to bluff the 4-4-2-2 thing was already offered and shot down. Usually you don’t increase the ask once a lower one was already downvoted

It is if the offer is 4-4-2-2 and we either get it our four or we walk and form our own league. Everything I have read says that the SEC and B10 want four guaranteed spots in the new 14 team playoff. I would guess the ACC and B12 will give them that if they also get at least 2 spots out of the 14.

 

[Cloneon]

It is if the offer is 4-4-2-2 and we either get it our four or we walk and form our own league. Everything I have read says that the SEC and B10 want four guaranteed spots in the new 14 team playoff. I would guess the ACC and B12 will give them that if they also get at least 2 spots out of the 14.

Without question, there's a risk of a SEC/B1G super league. The NFL steers the success/failure of any league which could undermine either their plans to expand or plans to slot games. And while monetary gains are more immediately rewarded to execs in the media, university presidents are an altogether different animal. I see the presidents as more skeptical of a super league and more confident of the status quo. My gut says we don't see the emergence of a league born from the SEC/B1G. Now, a complete overhaul league with all current Px schools into more reasonable geographic regions is more palatable. Just an opinion.