Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[1TwistedCyclone]

If it holds true, and the Big 12 gains Clemson and Florida State, I think the next two best fits to come along from the ACC are Louisville and Va. Tech. That is looking at those two from an athletically competive viewpoint, as well as both schools don't strike me as drama causing, nor do they appear to have overinflated egos. But both have been solidly competitive (though Tech has been a little down lately) in football. Louisville is historically valuable in basketball as well. (That Yum! money doesn't hurt either)

 

[1TwistedCyclone]

Also, SMU really mistimed their move. Shot their wad too soon, although that oil money always seems to bubble up whenever necessary.

 

[Stormin]

I'm assuming that this is all smoke from Clemson / FSU to gain leverage with the ACC or BIG / SEC.

Lets assume I'm wrong, and this is a real possibility which would lead me to this honest question..... Why?

Why would the big 12 be a better place for FSU Clemson? Is the money that much better? is the playoff easier to make? Pardon my ignorance, but I wouldn't understand the strategy by the move from the ACC to big 12.

Maybe the networks want to kill the ACC, to force ND into BIG? Are they willing to overpay for FSU / Clem into the big 12?

IMO it is the length of the ACC TV contract. 2036. Big 12 will negotiate 2 deals in that time period. FSU is an old Big East school. They have no loyalty. Neither does Clemson.

 

[MugNight]

Also, SMU really mistimed their move. Shot their wad too soon, although that oil money always seems to bubble up whenever necessary.

They’re crazy enough that they’ll make it work. Hell they may yet end up in the XII with no money for 10 years

 

[ISUCubswin]

Maybe, Scheer would also be an accessible effective person to use if you wanted to plant a smoke screen.

Completely agree, but Scheer ha; been calling the Arizona and everyone else moving to the Big 12 well before any other reliable sources were. Someone high up in Arizona trusts him

 

[CyCrazy]

Also, SMU really mistimed their move. Shot their wad too soon, although that oil money always seems to bubble up whenever necessary.

The Big 12 doesnt need SMU, go play in the AAC.

 

[CascadeClone]

Maybe, Scheer would also be an accessible effective person to use if you wanted to plant a smoke screen.

I don't think Scheer would do that on purpose given what he watched happen with Canzano and Willbur (whatever that guys name was). And I think he would be REALLY careful to confirm things.

Tin foil hat-

FSU & Clemson want out. Big12 wants to take 4 ACC teams and stick the knife into the ACC forever. ESPN wants to save money. Floating these rumors helps the cause of all parties by getting the P2 to pay attention to FSU/Clem, and destabilize rest of the ACC.

Maybe all this shakes out, then ESPN can decline to renew the ACC contract, and leave the low-value teams in the ACC rump to die at $10M per year (like their plan for the Hateful 8 to the AAC). That saves them ~$200M or so, even if they have to pay some more to FSU/Clemson (or even ND/UNC) in a P2.

 

[Kinch]

When OuT decided to leave, who would have thought we could end up with a stronger football conference, let alone survive.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Completely agree, but Scheer ha; been calling the Arizona and everyone else moving to the Big 12 well before any other reliable sources were. Someone high up in Arizona trusts him

While that’s true, remember his sources are within Arizona. And I’m not sure AZ sources are going to have the best pulse on this.

If the national media or local ACC reporters start tweeting stuff, than they’re getting it from the conferences and/or the ACC schools (which conferences/schools depend on who the reporter is).

That is when this gets real. Right now, I’m not taking it that seriously just based on Scheer’s tweet and the Williams/Blum discussion. I also don’t think taking FSU/Clemson is as much of a slam dunk decision as it’s being made out to be tbh.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

The Big 12 doesnt need SMU, go play in the AAC.

The last thing the B12 needs is another team in Texas, 4 is enough for any conference.

 

[exCyDing]

The last thing the B12 needs is another team in Texas, 4 is enough for any conference.

SMU is like the 14th best expansion option for the B12 right now. I'd say they have equal odds of getting a B10, SEC or B12 invite.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

IF the Big 10 or SEC are open to adding the top schools from the ACC, I would not be surprised if there were rumblings of Kansas also being poached off. From a brand perspective, Kansas is the largest piece left in the Big 12, especially now that they are competent and competitive in football, and are completing overdue stadium upgrades.

Kansas has a lot working against it, low population, rough academics, and just being “competent” in football for a couple seasons isn’t enough. If basketball is ever given more clout from a media dollars standpoint then sure they could be a factor but I would be stunned if Kansas joined a different conference.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Kansas has a lot working against it, low population, rough academics, and just being “competent” in football for a couple seasons isn’t enough. If basketball is ever given more clout from a media dollars standpoint then sure they could be a factor but I would be stunned if Kansas joined a different conference.

Hate carrying water for Kansas, but, no one is saying they are at the top of the list, but the final team to bring in to fill an open position. Kansas is an AAU school with an elite BB resume, they are putting money into football for the first time in half a decade. Granted they are a low population state, but so was Nebraska, and it gets the league into the KC market.
Miami and GT are better choices, but its clear to see that if either the B10 or SEC needs one spot to fill, Kansas becomes a clear favorite if nothing more than their BB program.

 

[theshadow]

Actual conference distributions for FY23 (2022-23), which is the most recent year available. This won't include HOU/BYU/CIN/UCF. Most of the difference in range from top to bottom is usually due to bowl expense formulas/stipends.

Big 12 - $42.1M to $48.2M
TCU - $48.2M
Iowa State - $42.1M

ACC - $43.2M to $46.8M
Clemson - $46.5M
Pittsburgh - $45.6M
Florida State - $45.2M
Louisville - $45.2M
(Notre Dame - $22.1M)

 

[Cloneon]

My ESPN+ just went up 45%. Guess they're figuring out how to pay their contracts.

 

[ClonerJams]

Kansas has a lot working against it, low population, rough academics, and just being “competent” in football for a couple seasons isn’t enough. If basketball is ever given more clout from a media dollars standpoint then sure they could be a factor but I would be stunned if Kansas joined a different conference.

Are you confusing Kansas with Kansas State? Kansas isn't elite academically but they're far from rough.

 

[Cyclone Pfan]

So we will play these teams once in ten years? at what point do you just split to two divisions of 10

Two lines:
The line where teams that bring the value up (in the next contract)
The line where teams dilute contract value.

I think these teams bring up value:
UNC, FSU, Clemson

I think these teams hold (per school) contract value:
UVA, VT, NCState, Miami

I'm unsure about whether these schools hold value: Duke, GT, Stanford, UConn (yes, I'm aware they are Big East)

I don't think these hold value:
Pitt, Louisville, Syracuse

These certainly don't add value:
BC, WF, Cal, SMU

So, I think you go after those in the first group, then look at metrics/strategy for the second group to round out the conference.

 

[StLouisClone]

If the B12 adds 4 from ACC, I think you need to have 4 pods in order to maintain and foster rivalries and minimize travel.

East: FSU, Clemson, WVU, UCF and Pitt (or Va Tech)

Midwest: Cincinnati, Louisville, ISU, KU and KSU

South: Houston, TTU, Baylor, TCU and OSU

West: Colorado, BYU, Arizona, ASU and Utah

 

[Cyclone Pfan]

I'm assuming that this is all smoke from Clemson / FSU to gain leverage with the ACC or BIG / SEC.

Lets assume I'm wrong, and this is a real possibility which would lead me to this honest question..... Why?

Why would the big 12 be a better place for FSU Clemson? Is the money that much better? is the playoff easier to make? Pardon my ignorance, but I wouldn't understand the strategy by the move from the ACC to big 12.

Maybe the networks want to kill the ACC, to force ND into BIG? Are they willing to overpay for FSU / Clem into the big 12?

I thought the rumor was that FSU wanted into the B12 when Maryland went to the B10... maybe they just feel they'd fit in better with OSU, West Virginia, Tech, and ASU than they do with BC, WF, UVA, and Syracuse?

The B12 will negotiate another contract before the ACC will. Why make a few million less over that time? And if it's true that ESPN is having financial issues, then the B12 contract has less risk because it also includes Fox.

I don't see ESPN allowing FSU to bail on their ACC contract only to turn around and give them (pro rata) 'Bama money on the SEC contract. So I think I can believe that they won't (cant) be invited to the SEC... ESPN can't afford it.

 

[HouClone]

Is there a reasonable chance that the market continues to shift down or the Big 10/SEC siphons off all the available money that the Big 12 doesn't get an increase in 2031?