Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[ClubCy]

If the CFP Committee members are lemmings like you appear to be relative to talking head opinions from ESPN and their favored conference, then maybe the 8 game conference slate won't matter. But there is no question that 8 game slate will have a negative impact on an SEC team's SOS and power rating if the 4th non con game is a G5 or FCS opponent. And SOS and power ratings will be and should be more relevant with CFP expansion and at large team selection.

If it didn’t matter in the 4 team why would it in the 12?

I can admit almost every SEC schedule is harder than every other conference. I still think they should have to play 9 but I don’t think anyone will be able to say they play weak schedules anymore.

 

[cykadelic2]

If it didn’t matter in the 4 team why would it in the 12?

I can admit almost every SEC schedule is harder than every other conference. I still think they should have to play 9 but I don’t think anyone will be able to say they play weak schedules anymore.

# of losses was the prevailing metric for 4 team playoff selection.

With 7 at large selections in a 12 team bracket and multiple teams having 2-3 losses in the at-large pool, there will now be much more focus on SOS and if a SEC team's 4th non con game is a weak G5 or FCS opponent, that will/should help mitigate any SOS advantage gained by playing and losing to one of the top 2 or 3 SEC teams. Beyond those top 2 or 3 SEC teams, the rest of the conference is no really no different from a SOS perspective than the B12.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

# of losses was the prevailing metric for 4 team playoff selection.

With 7 at large selections in a 12 team bracket and multiple teams having 2-3 losses in the at-large pool, there will now be much more focus on SOS and if a SEC team's 4th non con game is a weak G5 or FCS opponent, that will/should help mitigate any SOS advantage gained by playing and losing to one of the top 2 or 3 SEC teams. Beyond those top 2 or 3 SEC teams, the rest of the conference is no really no different from a SOS perspective than the B12.

Out of those 7 at large spots the B10 and SEC is going to get at least five and most likely 6 of them. The question for the ACC and B12 is does the runner up for the league get a spot over the 4/5 place team from the SEC or B10, because the first 3 or 4 or going to get in every season.

 

[ClubCy]

# of losses was the prevailing metric for 4 team playoff selection.

With 7 at large selections in a 12 team bracket and multiple teams having 2-3 losses in the at-large pool, there will now be much more focus on SOS and if a SEC team's 4th non con game is a weak G5 or FCS opponent, that will/should help mitigate any SOS advantage gained by playing and losing to one of the top 2 or 3 SEC teams. Beyond those top 2 or 3 SEC teams, the rest of the conference is no really no different from a SOS perspective than the B12.

I love your loyalty but this just isn’t the case anymore.

Whose schedule would you prefer Iowa State to have this year? We would be favored in maybe 1 SEC game with that schedule.

Oklahoma currently has the 9th best odds the win the SEC and if they were still in the Big 12 they would either preseason favorite the 2nd favorite.

 

[CascadeClone]

None of that will matter with the committee, the one thing we have learned after 10 years of the playoffs is that they are going to make up new rules or do whatever it takes to get make sure that schools like Alabama and Ohio State get in. I give you the never heard of before or since 13th data point used against TCU as an example.

"Well, your QB is out, so.... we're gonna break the one rule you thought we actually had and put Bama in anyway. Whatcha gonna do about it? We're the PHONE COMPANY!"

The committee's ONE RULE is to put in whatever teams bring the biggest TV ratings and thus money.

 

[twojman]

The playoff committee is not going to change their metrics of SOS. If you beat a team that is above .500 you get a quality win. This doesn't matter if it is UAB, Temple or Clemson. If I had a 4 game non con I would schedule G5 teams that would in theory project to finish 7-5. That's 4 quality wins according to the playoff committee. Anything in conference would be a bonus.

If you don't believe me, you are wrong. That's how the playoff committee has done things and will do things. I've repeated this a lot, @cfbmatrix on twitter has the playoff formula figured out. @ChrisMWilliams knows the guy and had him on KXNO several times. Several of you argue with me about this all the time but you are wrong.

 

[BooneCy]

I love your loyalty but this just isn’t the case anymore.

Whose schedule would you prefer Iowa State to have this year? We would be favored in maybe 1 SEC game with that schedule.

Oklahoma currently has the 9th best odds the win the SEC and if they were still in the Big 12 they would either preseason favorite the 2nd favorite.

We go 6-6 and get a bowl game with that schedule. If you think that is out of line then you are undervaluing this team or overvaluing the SEC.

 

[heitclone]

I believe the big ten doesn't want those two teams but the SEC could be doing the same thing the big ten did to Oregon and Washington, slow play them until they have no other choice then get them cheap.

This instability will be just like the PAC, the 2nd tier teams will get nervous, jump ship then the big boys will pick up the pieces and the Big 12 will get all the blame once again.

 

[CascadeClone]

I love your loyalty but this just isn’t the case anymore.

Whose schedule would you prefer Iowa State to have this year? We would be favored in maybe 1 SEC game with that schedule.

Oklahoma currently has the 9th best odds the win the SEC and if they were still in the Big 12 they would either preseason favorite the 2nd favorite.

OU got one of the hardest SEC schedules this year though, that's a big part of the bad odds.
But look at Mizzou.

They have 4 non-con laughers plus Vandy at home. They only have two games vs powers (at Bama and TAMU). If they are even just average, they should end up 8-4 worst case. If they are top 20-25ish, they will be 9 or 10 wins, and all you will hear is how good they are since they lost to mighty Bama and TAMU.

This is the problem. It's not that Bama or Georgia isn't elite, because they are. But all the other good teams are in the same tier as the good teams in the Big12 or ACC. There's no step change from KSU/OSU up to Mizzou/Auburn. But everyone will act like they are, because of recruiting rankings, SEC branding, and ESPN puffing. So that 9-3 Mizzou, 6th in conference, whose best win is vs OU at home, will get picked before 2nd place 11-2 KSU.

Next year it will be the opposite- OU or Miss St or whoever will get the easy schedule and the 4th or 5th CFP spot.

 

[CascadeClone]

The playoff committee is not going to change their metrics of SOS. If you beat a team that is above .500 you get a quality win. This doesn't matter if it is UAB, Temple or Clemson. If I had a 4 game non con I would schedule G5 teams that would in theory project to finish 7-5. That's 4 quality wins according to the playoff committee. Anything in conference would be a bonus.

If you don't believe me, you are wrong. That's how the playoff committee has done things and will do things. I've repeated this a lot, @cfbmatrix on twitter has the playoff formula figured out. @ChrisMWilliams knows the guy and had him on KXNO several times. Several of you argue with me about this all the time but you are wrong.

Out of curiosity, did they predict the Bama>FSU last year?

 

[1SEIACLONE]

OU got one of the hardest SEC schedules this year though, that's a big part of the bad odds.
But look at Mizzou.

They have 4 non-con laughers plus Vandy at home. They only have two games vs powers (at Bama and TAMU). If they are even just average, they should end up 8-4 worst case. If they are top 20-25ish, they will be 9 or 10 wins, and all you will hear is how good they are since they lost to mighty Bama and TAMU.

This is the problem. It's not that Bama or Georgia isn't elite, because they are. But all the other good teams are in the same tier as the good teams in the Big12 or ACC. There's no step change from KSU/OSU up to Mizzou/Auburn. But everyone will act like they are, because of recruiting rankings, SEC branding, and ESPN puffing. So that 9-3 Mizzou, 6th in conference, whose best win is vs OU at home, will get picked before 2nd place 11-2 KSU.

Next year it will be the opposite- OU or Miss St or whoever will get the easy schedule and the 4th or 5th CFP spot.


View attachment 131201

That is the major reason the SEC stays at a 8 game conference schedule, because going to nine games means half the schools will pick up a loss and 9-3 looks a lot better than 8-4.

 

[twojman]

Out of curiosity, did they predict the Bama>FSU last year?

I believe they did, not because of numbers though. The committee had left itself outs due to injury. I believe the committee had talked about that for years.

 

[HouClone]

I'll spot an SEC school 1 game (9-3 SEC over 10-2 Big 12) for a tougher conference but not 2 games due to their 8 game conference schedule. If they go to 9 games, I'll change my spot to 1.5 games.

 

[ClubCy]

OU got one of the hardest SEC schedules this year though, that's a big part of the bad odds.
But look at Mizzou.

They have 4 non-con laughers plus Vandy at home. They only have two games vs powers (at Bama and TAMU). If they are even just average, they should end up 8-4 worst case. If they are top 20-25ish, they will be 9 or 10 wins, and all you will hear is how good they are since they lost to mighty Bama and TAMU.

This is the problem. It's not that Bama or Georgia isn't elite, because they are. But all the other good teams are in the same tier as the good teams in the Big12 or ACC. There's no step change from KSU/OSU up to Mizzou/Auburn. But everyone will act like they are, because of recruiting rankings, SEC branding, and ESPN puffing. So that 9-3 Mizzou, 6th in conference, whose best win is vs OU at home, will get picked before 2nd place 11-2 KSU.

Next year it will be the opposite- OU or Miss St or whoever will get the easy schedule and the 4th or 5th CFP spot.


View attachment 131201

I’ll give you Mizzou has a pretty easy schedule compared to the rest of the league. Still doesn’t change my mind that majority of teams in the SEC have a harder conference schedule than most other conferences.

 

[Cloneon]

If we have learned anything, we know that ESPN and FOX will have a large say in this. If the B10 is passing on Clemson and FSU because they are not AAU members that would say they prefer UNC and UVA which makes sense from a geographic sense and reunites them with Maryland.
If those two go to the B10, I just cannot see the SEC saying we are passing on Clemson and FSU and letting them fall to the B12. They both have too much value to the SEC to let that them walk, even if they already have schools in both states.

Interesting statement about what ESPN and Fox want, they get. Except Yormark has proven himself as one who can find alternative revenue streams. I'm glad he's running the show and not the people on this forum. If talks are happening, it's as suggested: a ploy. Or, Yormark has something he can negotiate with.

 

[MugNight]

SIAP, but CFP committee basically admitting that the seeding will be based on anything but on-field merits.

This quote is taken a bit out of context, but it won’t be as simple as on field performance driving who gets a home game. This is rife for at large bid, eye-test ********.

I read this as ESPN saying, “Do not send Florida to play at Penn State in December.” Fat chance that Ames or Mahattan ever sniff a home game in the CFP.

Chalk this up as another way that true college towns will be hurt by the consolidation of P2. Do we really think 9-3 XII champ ISU would get a home game in Ames over 9-3 Texas in Austin?

 

[FriendlySpartan]

SIAP, but CFP committee basically admitting that the seeding will be based on anything but on-field merits.

This quote is taken a bit out of context, but it won’t be as simple as on field performance driving who gets a home game. This is rife for at large bid, eye-test ********.

I read this as ESPN saying, “Do not send Florida to play at Penn State in December.” Fat chance that Ames or Mahattan ever sniff a home game in the CFP.

Chalk this up as another way that true college towns will be hurt by the consolidation of P2. Do we really think 9-3 XII champ ISU would get a home game in Ames over 9-3 Texas in Austin?

You understand that this is for the at large games right? If ISU is the big 12 champ they get a bye automatically

 

[ClubCy]

SIAP, but CFP committee basically admitting that the seeding will be based on anything but on-field merits.

This quote is taken a bit out of context, but it won’t be as simple as on field performance driving who gets a home game. This is rife for at large bid, eye-test ********.

I read this as ESPN saying, “Do not send Florida to play at Penn State in December.” Fat chance that Ames or Mahattan ever sniff a home game in the CFP.

Chalk this up as another way that true college towns will be hurt by the consolidation of P2. Do we really think 9-3 XII champ ISU would get a home game in Ames over 9-3 Texas in Austin?

Not to be that guy but the conference champs get a bye which means they would only play on a neutral field but your point remains.

 

[ClubCy]

Also not sure why ticket sales would ever matter. Wouldn’t all that go to the university anyway?

 

[FriendlySpartan]

SIAP, but CFP committee basically admitting that the seeding will be based on anything but on-field merits.

This quote is taken a bit out of context, but it won’t be as simple as on field performance driving who gets a home game. This is rife for at large bid, eye-test ********.

I read this as ESPN saying, “Do not send Florida to play at Penn State in December.” Fat chance that Ames or Mahattan ever sniff a home game in the CFP.

Chalk this up as another way that true college towns will be hurt by the consolidation of P2. Do we really think 9-3 XII champ ISU would get a home game in Ames over 9-3 Texas in Austin?

Also saying the quote is taken a bit out of context is being generous but I don’t blame you because that’s what all the media is running with. The actual exchange is below: it has nothing to do with seeding

Q: "What does a campus need to host a playoff game that they wouldn't have for an October conference game?"

A: "There's a lot of factors that are going to go into this. Weather is going to be a factor that they're going to have to consider because this game is going to be later in the year, in the winter. Hotels are a factor. Do they have the level of hotel that would be expected for a playoff game and do they have the availability when we need it? Practice space, those are the kinds of things that people need to keep in mind. But also, I mean everything from ticket sales to managing how we distribute the tickets, all of those kind of things have to come into play. It's not a game they've been planning on for 6-8 months."