Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

HouClone

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Sep 3, 2011
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Stew, Wilner, and Canzano likely already have written their articles pending the announcement of the Pac deal. The deal could be awful or super great, but it won't matter to them. They've been waiting, frothing at the mouth.

The 1st paragraph will be brief - the announcement of the deal. The 2nd will be the details. The 3rd will be the fireworks, the pent up anger unleashed at the Big 12. "No Pac school wanted to associate with an academic inferior conference.", "Four corners was a pipe dream.", "Big 12 propaganda...".

I feel bad for these fellows. They've been the front line soldiers for the Pac for over 9 months. They need a hug and a medal.
 

ClonerJams

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At the end of the day, the Pac 12 getting a decent deal doesn't really change anything for us. The Big 12 got a good deal and stability, anything extra getting Pac 12 leftovers would just be a cherry on top. The Pac 12 butthurt at the Big 12 despite the Big 10 being the ones that wounded them will always be funny.
 

HouClone

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Yeah it's like the SEC and B1G are blameless in the reorganization of college athletics.
Yep. At least the Big 12 took shots at the SEC and Sankey for negotiating the 12 team playoff while working to get OUT into the SEC. The Pac and Kliavkoff got punched and ran away.
 

1UNI2ISU

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I can't get it to imbed for some reason but Mandel (yes I know) was on a BYU podcast and said that Gonzaga to the Big 12 is happening in a 'matter of weeks'...

@BYUSportsNation
 

BMWallace

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At this point, I get the feeling the PAC will get a satisfactory deal and hold together. My prediction is that The new deal will be a 6 or 7 year agreement that includes them adding SDSU for the SoCal foot print and SMU for the Texas connection. The dollar value will be in the ballpark of the Big 12's deal, but the new teams will take a reduced cut for 2-3 years, meaning that the existing 10 schools will receive larger payouts then the Big 12 schools.

This sets up the B1G, B12, and PAC media contracts all expiring in 2030/31, while the SEC expires in 2034 and the ACC in 2036. I expect we are going to get about 5 years of quiet on realignment within the former P5, before things heat up again in 2028/29. This would also mean that the ACC is closer to the end of their GOR, so schools like FSU, Clemson, and Miami may be more willing to leave and deal with the legal/financial ramifications of that separation.
 

isucy86

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My take on the statements by UA, ASU & UU Presidents over the last couple days is: We're together until we aren't.

I can't blame them. If the money is close to the Big12's why not stay together. There is so much chaos in college athletics that resisting change is a natural reaction.

A while back it was reported Amazon was only interested in a 2 year deal. I am starting to think the Pac12 might like a short deal, especially if the annual money is higher than Amazon or ESPN might want to commit on over a 5-6 year deal. It gets the Pac12 through the initial 2 years of the 12 team playoff. It helps both Pac12 and Amazon/Apple evaluate current viability of subscription based live sports programming without a long term commitment.
 
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isucy86

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At this point, I get the feeling the PAC will get a satisfactory deal and hold together. My prediction is that The new deal will be a 6 or 7 year agreement that includes them adding SDSU for the SoCal foot print and SMU for the Texas connection. The dollar value will be in the ballpark of the Big 12's deal, but the new teams will take a reduced cut for 2-3 years, meaning that the existing 10 schools will receive larger payouts then the Big 12 schools.

This sets up the B1G, B12, and PAC media contracts all expiring in 2030/31, while the SEC expires in 2034 and the ACC in 2036. I expect we are going to get about 5 years of quiet on realignment within the former P5, before things heat up again in 2028/29. This would also mean that the ACC is closer to the end of their GOR, so schools like FSU, Clemson, and Miami may be more willing to leave and deal with the legal/financial ramifications of that separation.
The thing about SDSU or SMU taking less isn't really a ton of money. Maybe it closes the gap, but I would be surprised if it pushes Pac12 above Big12.

For example
  • Pac12 deal at $300M or $25M/school
  • SDSU & SMU only take $10M
  • $30M of new schools entry fees are divided among 10 legacy teams
  • The 10 legacy schools receive $28M
But I think getting within $4-5M might be good enough, especially with the 12 team playoff money inflow in a year and then bigger bump when the 12 team pricing goes out to open market starting 2026/27 season.
 
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Gunnerclone

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My take on the statements by UA, ASU & UU Presidents over the last couple days is: We're together until we aren't.

I can't blame them. If the money is close to the Big12's why not stay together. There is so much chaos in college athletics that resisting change is a natural reaction.

A while back it was reported Amazon was only interested in a 2 year deal. I am starting to think the Pac12 might like a short deal, especially if the annual money is higher than Amazon or ESPN might want to commit on over a 5-6 year deal. It gets the Pac12 through the initial 2 years of the 12 team playoff. It helps both Pac12 and Amazon/Apple evaluate current viability of subscription based live sports programming without a long term commitment.

Exactly. As I’ve said before, we’ve been here a few times.
 

Die4Cy

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Let's just see how the grant of rights discussion goes for them. Because that's where the rubber meets the road for the media money guys.
 
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isucy86

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Let's just see how the grant of rights discussion goes for them. Because that's where the rubber meets the road for the media money guys.
It even goes beyond GOR. If the deal is heavy streaming, is each school guaranteed so many games on linear TV? Is uneven revenue sharing on the table among the current 10?
 

Die4Cy

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I'm guessing that if a deal happens for similar money it is going to be short. Like four years.
 

LLCoolCY

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