Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

isucy86

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Tend to agree, but:
1. I think $25M would get it done
2. If they add teams (SDSt, SMU) who bear the burden of unequal sharing for the initial GoR period, that could be a source for UW/UO to get more (say the 2 newbies get half share, and UW/UO get 1.5 shares). I think the M4 could tolerate that.

The biggest thing against the PAC is the Prisoners Dilemma. First one to cut a deal is safe, so there is intense pressure to not be the 2nd Prisoner and get left behind.
Your last point is big.

The exposure and $ are going to get a lot of attention. But the most critical element for the Corner 4 is going to be a GOR by Oregon & Washington that spans the length of the upcoming Big10 deal. If Oregon & Washington have an out to join the Big10, then the Corner 4 lose their leverage with the Big12 if OR/WA jump ship. And the Big12 could require the Corner 4 take a partial share to join the Big12.
 

GoldCy

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Quoting from forums is worthless. The decision makers don't care what the fans think. It's whoever is signing the check.
 

Gunnerclone

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Any chance I get to plug Stewart’s article saying the Big 12 leftovers were worth $7-$12 million per school, I’m going to do it. Guy has been massively out of touch on realignment (you’d think The Athletic’s national CFB lead would be a little more plugged in on what’s going on in CFB…).


Lol.
 

CoKane

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I think MHaver does get told things from time to time by somebody. Getting the exact date of a rumored meeting correct is pretty strange or lucky I suppose.

I think he also decides to put different pieces of info together here and there, tries to fit them together however that might be even if it doesn't make sense, creates wild inferences with that info, and then tries to report it as fact.
 

exCyDing

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Tend to agree, but:
1. I think $25M would get it done
2. If they add teams (SDSt, SMU) who bear the burden of unequal sharing for the initial GoR period, that could be a source for UW/UO to get more (say the 2 newbies get half share, and UW/UO get 1.5 shares). I think the M4 could tolerate that.

The biggest thing against the PAC is the Prisoners Dilemma. First one to cut a deal is safe, so there is intense pressure to not be the 2nd Prisoner and get left behind.
Seems questionable thay
Agree with everything you said except for #1. Does $27 mil get it done when WA/OR bolt after 5 years for greener pastures? $27 mil gets it done FOR NOW but you are staring $15-$20 mil in the face when you have to renegotiate in a few years likely without WA/OR.

I think it’s more likely than not the Pac stays together for a few more years but if the Four Corners don’t see the writing on the wall, they deserve to be stuck on streaming platforms.
If they get a deal for $27m, I think there’s a chance for the PAC to stick together for another 5 years. WAOR (and Stanford) aren’t going to give up on the B10 dream, but they might accept it’s going to have to wait. Even if the PAC manages to pull it off, we’ll be playing this game again at the end of their deal. In the meantime, there’s still a lot that could go wrong.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
I think MHaver does get told things from time to time by somebody. Getting the exact date of a rumored meeting correct is pretty strange or lucky I suppose.

I think he also decides to put different pieces of info together here and there, tries to fit them together however that might be even if it doesn't make sense, creates wild inferences with that info, and then tries to report it as fact.
The meeting he talks about is the meeting that the ADs always schedule the day before the BB tourney.
 

exCyDing

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Tend to agree, but:
1. I think $25M would get it done
2. If they add teams (SDSt, SMU) who bear the burden of unequal sharing for the initial GoR period, that could be a source for UW/UO to get more (say the 2 newbies get half share, and UW/UO get 1.5 shares). I think the M4 could tolerate that.

The biggest thing against the PAC is the Prisoners Dilemma. First one to cut a deal is safe, so there is intense pressure to not be the 2nd Prisoner and get left behind.
$25m might do it, but a $5m gap with the B12 has been bandied about as a breaking point. It’s all conjecture, so what’s $2m?

I don’t know, bringing in G5s that might get the PAC a little more from the networks than the schools would need to come on board and giving the difference to WAOR looks super kludgy. If you’re the PAC, you’ve got to look at it, but that’s a baaaad look.

Spot on with the Prisoner’s Dilemma analogy.
 

exCyDing

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Your last point is big.

The exposure and $ are going to get a lot of attention. But the most critical element for the Corner 4 is going to be a GOR by Oregon & Washington that spans the length of the upcoming Big10 deal. If Oregon & Washington have an out to join the Big10, then the Corner 4 lose their leverage with the Big12 if OR/WA jump ship. And the Big12 could require the Corner 4 take a partial share to join the Big12.
Length of the deal and GOR is kind of a moot point, IMO. If they get one done, this whole thing is going to play out again when it’s up barring drastic and unforeseen changes. I don’t think it really matters if it’s in the same timetable as the B10. Plus, the reported deals are 5 years with ESPN and 2 years with a 2 year option from Amazon. The 5 year deal gets them to 2029, while the B10 is up in 2031.

The longer the GOR, the more WA and/or OR will drag their feet in signing it. The shorter the GOR, the more likely for some corner schools to take the leap.

In general, I could see WAOR trying to delay signing the deal/GOR as long as possible just in case the B10 gets a new commissioner and extends an invite at the 11th hour. How long would the corner schools hold out in that scenario?
 
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Acylum

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In general, I could see WAOR trying to delay signing the deal/GOR as long as possible just in case the B10 gets a new commissioner and extends an invite at the 11th hour. How long would the corner schools hold out in that scenario?
I never really bought into the narrative that the b1g took only USCLA so as not to be seen as the conference that ended the PAC. But if there’s a kernel of truth to that, it makes me wonder if there’s a back alley deal where WAOR torpedo the PAC’s media/GOR deal knowing there’s a soft landing awaiting them in the b1g. I don’t see how that makes the b1g look any less worse since they got the ball rolling, but it sure seems like a lot of people are blaming the B12 for the PAC’s impending collapse.
 

Pope

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Seems questionable thay

If they get a deal for $27m, I think there’s a chance for the PAC to stick together for another 5 years. WAOR (and Stanford) aren’t going to give up on the B10 dream, but they might accept it’s going to have to wait. Even if the PAC manages to pull it off, we’ll be playing this game again at the end of their deal. In the meantime, there’s still a lot that could go wrong.
If you were a PAC school, would you take a deal that provides several million/year less and virtually no exposure for your program, all so you can stay in a conference a few more years before it collapses the second the Big 10 extends an offer to WA/OR?

I sure wouldn't.
 
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cycloneworld

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Seems questionable thay

If they get a deal for $27m, I think there’s a chance for the PAC to stick together for another 5 years. WAOR (and Stanford) aren’t going to give up on the B10 dream, but they might accept it’s going to have to wait. Even if the PAC manages to pull it off, we’ll be playing this game again at the end of their deal. In the meantime, there’s still a lot that could go wrong.

Agree with you. But the Four Corners will also see the writing on the wall and I think could jump for a few more bucks. But the primary reason to go to the Big 12 is longer term stability and visibility.

Either way, Ali think the Pac is dead whether it be now or in 5-6 years.
 

HouClone

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The PAC very well may survive if three things happen:
  1. They need a media deal worth $27/$28m per school for at least 5 years.
  2. It’s gotta be equal revenue distribution, WAOR can’t push for a bigger cut.
  3. WAOR needs to accept the deal and sign the GOR pretty quick. I could see them trying to drag it out in hopes the B10 fills their commissioner position and makes an offer.
If 2 and/or 3 happen, the corner schools will get anxious real quick and all the more likely for at least 2 of them to throw in with the B12 and bring the whole thing down.
I agree with your points but I am putting $22 million as #1. If WAOR with 4 corners jump to the Big 12, I see at least $40 million each so that is $18 million more with exposure. Sounds like a shoe-in. However, I am skeptical. The disdain for the Big 12 and staying together is there with the WAOR and Pac teams.

Once the Pac signs their new crap contract, get ready for the Stew, Canzano, Wilner, and Altimore Big 12 bashing justifications: "extra travel", "lack of academic prestige", "reduced donations and endowment". Stew and Canzano likely have already written their articles and are just waiting for the green light to hit "Send".
 
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SCNCY

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I agree with your points but I am putting $22 million as #1. If WAOR with 4 corners jump to the Big 12, I see at least $40 million each so that is $18 million more with exposure. Sounds like a shoe-in. However, I am skeptical. The disdain for the Big 12 and staying together is there with the WAOR and Pac teams.

Once the Pac signs their new crap contract, get ready for the Stew, Canzano, Wilner, and Altimore Big 12 bashing justifications: "extra travel", "lack of academic prestige", "reduced donations and endowment". Stew and Canzano likely have already written their articles and are just waiting for the green light to hit "Send".

Not sure if you intended to do this, but the PAC's media deal is anticipated to be in the $20's million range, that doesn't include bowls, NCAA tournament, and other shared revenue streams. The Big12's equivalent media revenue is $32 million.
 

Die4Cy

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Everyone is looking for the life boat, nobody wants to be the first to jump.

Brings back memories, don't it?

Best case scenario for the PAC is that they are able to do what the Big 12 did, get something acceptable to buy time and pass the league focus away from the teams that are going to leave ultimately anyway so that when the time comes the conference can continue without further losses.

I think their media have not done them any favors by setting up a false standard in comparing themselves to "truck stop schools" that just straight up have more media value. Pride is one of the deadly sins.
 
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BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
Everyone is looking for the life boat, nobody wants to be the first to jump.

Brings back memories, don't it?

Best case scenario for the PAC is that they are able to do what the Big 12 did, get something acceptable to buy time and pass the league focus away from the teams that are going to leave ultimately anyway so that when the time comes the conference can continue without further losses.

I think their media have not done them any favors by setting up a false standard in comparing themselves to "truck stop schools" that just straight up have more media value. Pride is one of the deadly sins.
The comparison thing will happen no matter what. The coasts see any one not on the coasts as hill billies that are uneducated and knuckle dragging mouth breathers. This is especially true when you have the west coast. Arizona has been their red headed step child long enough that they think they are considered one of them, but they are not. This is where I see the LA schools asking the big ten why they need to play Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Purdue and others. They are going to want to play OSU, Michigan, PSU and a few others.

Their pride and arrogance will kill off the Cali schools if the big ten doesn't deem them worthy.
 
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Clonehomer

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Length of the deal and GOR is kind of a moot point, IMO. If they get one done, this whole thing is going to play out again when it’s up barring drastic and unforeseen changes. I don’t think it really matters if it’s in the same timetable as the B10. Plus, the reported deals are 5 years with ESPN and 2 years with a 2 year option from Amazon. The 5 year deal gets them to 2029, while the B10 is up in 2031.

The longer the GOR, the more WA and/or OR will drag their feet in signing it. The shorter the GOR, the more likely for some corner schools to take the leap.

In general, I could see WAOR trying to delay signing the deal/GOR as long as possible just in case the B10 gets a new commissioner and extends an invite at the 11th hour. How long would the corner schools hold out in that scenario?

Who's option is the additional 2 years? How does a school sign a 5 year GOR with only 2 years of guaranteed tier 1 contract? What happens if Apple (or Amazon) decides not to extend the contract? You're back on the market with potentially a worse deal resulting and you're locked in for another 3 years. No way any school signs a GOR without a guarantee that the money is there.
 

HouClone

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Not sure if you intended to do this, but the PAC's media deal is anticipated to be in the $20's million range, that doesn't include bowls, NCAA tournament, and other shared revenue streams. The Big12's equivalent media revenue is $32 million.
I did. With WAOR and 4 corners, Big 12 should be able to be able to renegotiate their contact, at least that is my assumption. I guessed $40 million each.
 

Gunnerclone

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Agree with you. But the Four Corners will also see the writing on the wall and I think could jump for a few more bucks. But the primary reason to go to the Big 12 is longer term stability and visibility.

Either way, Ali think the Pac is dead whether it be now or in 5-6 years.

This is actually not JUST about the money. It’s also about future money.