Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

isucy86

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I don’t see a scenario where Pitt gets picked up by the P2. NC St and VA Tech will likely be left behind. Louisville is somewhat interesting, but there might a reason the Big XII passed on them before.
I can't believe NCST will get left behind. They may have struggled on the field/court, but NC is a huge TV market.
 

HoopsTournament

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RustShack

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Big 12 will not elevate a G5 school at this point. No.
I prefer the scenario where we take 4-6 PAC. Four being the corners and six if Oregon and Washington are options as well. Just saying in that scenario, I think all 5 are takes.
 

timinatoria

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Except the way they have figured out how to increase the value of the conference the last couple rounds which in turn significantly increases their pay, is going to go away when there is no more high value programs to add.

So in 10-20 years when the networks tell them they are at max value already, and the bid is only going to include inflationary increases, meaning there is no major increases like we have seen for the last few rounds, they might look at things differently.

You have to also realize 30 million 15 years ago looked like 100 million today. Everyone thought that was insane money then.

Then you have to realize that when the media people start telling OSU, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, etc. they are worth 250M each or more and they could get that much In a separate league of like universities. Vs 100M in their current conference then you might reconsider.

That is when OSU and Michigan go to the B1G and say we want a larger share to stay or we are leaving to create a new power conference. Same with Alabama and Georgia.

These people only care about money. No matter what everyone thinks we are entering a new phase of stupid money.
Just stop.
 
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RustShack

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I just can’t wrap my head around any of those schools. They would take Oregon St, Washington St or Cal before any among SDSU, Boise or Memphis.
Well in the scenario mentioned, Cal was in the B1G. Just because you are currently in the P5, doesn’t automatically make you better than a G5 school. The schools you mentioned will be going G5 as well so technically they aren’t any better, as they are G5 too.
 
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isucy86

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The ACC's not raiding anybody. They're in only a slightly better position than the PAC. The Big XII pays out more in TV revenue currently and will continue to into the future.

The Big XII is #3 in TV revenue right now. How is it you think it falls behind the ACC (#4) in the pecking order by adding PAC schools?

I'm confused by your reasoning there.

It seems like a lot of folks are focused on what schools do on the field/court or what a conference wants. That is true to a degree in regard to conferences. The money is coming from TV Partners. The ACC might want to add teams, but it really comes down to does ESPN want to increase its investment in the ACC.

Any reopening of ESPN's agreement with the ACC would also include Clemson, UNC, FSU, Miami looking to either get paid "their worth" plus adjusting for value of new schools. ESPN might prefer the top ACC teams in the SEC.
 

RustShack

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It seems like a lot of folks are focused on what schools do on the field/court or what a conference wants. That is true to a degree in regard to conferences. The money is coming from TV Partners. The ACC might want to add teams, but it really comes down to does ESPN want to increase its investment in the ACC.

Any reopening of ESPN's agreement with the ACC would also include Clemson, UNC, FSU, Miami looking to either get paid "their worth" plus adjusting for value of new schools. ESPN might prefer the top ACC teams in the SEC.
The ACC is past the point of adding. They are a sinking ship.
 

cyatheart

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No.

It's probably like 10% chance we hear something in August.

Then I think we hear something maybe as the B1G TV deal wraps up as to whether or not the Pac-12 is going to survive as a conference.

(Edit: if the B1G deal gets wrapped up in August, then the 10% percentage increases significantly)
Seems right, I don't see how anything can happen until the big ten deal is done
 

isucy86

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Ok. Are we expecting an announcement tomorrow, 1 Aug, related to new Big 12 members? What if this drags out with no schools from the Pac 12 moving to the Big 12? We may look a little weak.

I don't see it that way.

The Pac12 isn't going to get a serious bid until the Big10 agreement is finalized. TV Networks that bid on the Pac12 may also be the companies that have bid on the Big10.

I would think Pac12 schools feel there is no hurry. Their TV contract doesn't expire until June 2024 and the Big12's the following year. So they may feel they have a year to see how things play out with the Big10. If the Big12 wants the 4 corner schools today, they'll want them a year from now.

After all, if the Big12's TV contract is similar to Pac12. The Fox & ESPN would have an exclusive 30 day period to negotiation next summer. Obviously, the current TV partners could say they won't submit a bid and the process starts earlier.
 
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isucy86

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Well in the scenario mentioned, Cal was in the B1G. Just because you are currently in the P5, doesn’t automatically make you better than a G5 school. The schools you mentioned will be going G5 as well so technically they aren’t any better, as they are G5 too.
The talk of Cal being a G5 school is silly. If Cal doesn't end up in the Big10, they would definitely end up in the Big12. The only exception would be if Cal dropped FB! The TV folks will not pass up on having a school in the 6th largest TV market. Why do people think UCF & Houston were added by Big12 last summer.

If Oregon doesn't get a Big10 invite, I would also suspect that Oregon/Oregon State would be a package deal.
 
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FriendlySpartan

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The talk of Cal being a G5 school is silly. If Cal doesn't end up in the Big10, they would definitely end up in the Big12. The only exception would be if Cal dropped FB! The TV folks will not pass up on having a school in the 6th largest TV market. Why do people think UCF & Houston were added by Big12 last summer.

If Oregon doesn't get a Big10 invite, I would also suspect that Oregon/Oregon State would be a package deal.
Your last sentence is one of the things I’ve been thinking about lately. If the big ten holds its pattern for a couple years it will force Oregon to move somewhere in the next year since the pac isn’t viable. Does Oregon have enough value to the Big12 that they could bring OSU along is the real question.
 

BryceC

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I listened to the podcast this afternoon and I think to add to that, something the main guy was emphasizing was that he believes the P12 is dissolving in the weeks following their media window closing regardless of what else happens. He went on to say he thinks that if 4/6/8 of the P12 schools join the B12, then it would be based on money from CBS and that CBS would require the conference to rebrand.

That would definitely be an interesting development if there was no longer an entity called the B12. In theory, it could help with the media perception and to have a major network dedicated to pumping up the "Future B12" brand similar to what ESPN does for the SEC.

Honestly I think we should rebrand if there are 4+ teams brought on. The Big 12 as a brand has been kicked in the teeth so many times you have programs like Utah who can't possibly imagine joining up. We need to trash it and start over.
 

WhoISthis

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I just can’t wrap my head around any of those schools. They would take Oregon St, Washington St or Cal before any among SDSU, Boise or Memphis.

Wouldn't we take whatever the networks said made the most money? If ESPN is doing the deal to get Big 18, they may have plans to repurpose ACCN as Big 12 Network, and then SDSU likely more appealing.

But if the PAC is dead, there is no rush on any of Oregon St, WSU or Mountain West.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
I listened to the podcast this afternoon and I think to add to that, something the main guy was emphasizing was that he believes the P12 is dissolving in the weeks following their media window closing regardless of what else happens. He went on to say he thinks that if 4/6/8 of the P12 schools join the B12, then it would be based on money from CBS and that CBS would require the conference to rebrand.

That would definitely be an interesting development if there was no longer an entity called the B12. In theory, it could help with the media perception and to have a major network dedicated to pumping up the "Future B12" brand similar to what ESPN does for the SEC.
Right now, until there is a change to the playoffs or NY6, there are 5 power conferences stated, if one goes away, it goes away. If one changes their name, they are idiots to voluntarily give that hope and hope to get it back

There will be no rebranding at least until 2026.
 

SEIOWA CLONE

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The P12 people are living in denial, much like we were last year, when we were blindsided by OU and UT leaving. The big difference is the people actually care about football in the B12, while most could care less about attending a game in the P12 except for a few places like Oregon. The idea that UCLA may come back to the league is just not happening, and unless the numbers from the networks come back to put the P12 up to around 45 to 50 million a school, then others will be looking to leave also.
No one is going to stand pat and risk being left out when its all said and done, so the 4 corner schools will be looking to jump first and get into the B12, not worth the risk of sticking around and then Oregon, Washington or Stanford jump a year from now, after they have signed away their GOR rights.