Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[AuH2O]

It changes their access to all of the pooled resources and research. Michigan’s research dollars are $1.6 billion. Why would they risk that in any way for a few more million for an athletic department that is swimming in cash. If leaving the B1G Athletic Alliance jeopardized just 3% of that it’s $48M.

It’s not going to happen. It’s a fantasy for people who hate the B1G or who want something to scare the douchebag Iowa fans with.

That isn’t at all how research at universities work, or how the big 10 alliance works.

Money does not flow to the alliance. They pool together some administrative resources together to get some administrative savings. Research dollars don’t flow to the big 10 research alliance or athletic conferences. They really rarely even flow to schools.

Researchers propose specific ideas, collaborate and subcontract with colleagues that fill a role from other schools. Athletic conference is not a thought in organizing research teams or funding projects.

It’s sort of like ISUs College of Engineering saying we have $X Million in research dollars. The college of engineering doesn’t get research dollars from federal agencies. They are the administrative unit that provides some economies of scale in admin activities.

 

[2speedy1]

The top brands will never go together (Texas, Alabama, Ohio State, etc) even if the money is unimaginable because

A) The TV rights will NEVER expire at the same time. Networks arent that dumb.

B) The top brands need Vandy, NW, etc to make sure they get some wins. SOMEBODY has to go 3-9 and the top brands don’t want that to be them.

There is one problem with that though, At the same time they dont think those bottom teams deserve the same money as they do.

So if the, Alabamas and OSUs can get double or triple the money by getting rid of the Vandys and Northwesterns, they will figure out a way, or they will tell them to take a smaller cut. Which will eventually tear everything down.

It is what we have seen with Texas and OU, It is what we are seeing with Oregon and Washington. Saying it will never happen in the future with other leagues is short sighted, just because it hasn't yet. When those teams are trying to figure how to increase their income, and their is no other league to poach from that gains them money, they will start to come up with other ideas how to maximize their value and pay.

And I doubt it will be the schools that start the idea, it will be a network that says we can get you more if you do this, or that. And when that happens they will start to push for some kind of extra compensation from the conference or the threat of leaving will happen.

 

[keepngoal]

No, and they won’t ask. The academic money is worth billions. They aren’t going to jeopardize that in any way for an extra $10M-$20M for sports when they are already one it the very highest revenue athletic departments in the country.

You didn’t read my post correctly. I agree that schools won’t leave the Big10. However I believe some will want more of the sports money than others. All the while staying in the big.

 

[AuH2O]

I doubt it would effect their grants by much if at all I’ll give you that. Are there any benefits to being in the BTAA that you think they might not want to walk away from?

I’ll stand by this statement. No one is leaving the Big Ten and the BTAA is an important reason why.

They aren’t leaving because if the Big 10 TV dollars and they definitely like being in what will be the academically prestigious power conference when all is said and done. BTAA is probably not much of a consideration.

It’s understandable that people confuse this because people in the college sports world keep raising this point.

 

[timinatoria]

You didn’t read my post correctly. I agree that schools won’t leave the Big10. However I believe some will want more of the sports money than others. All the while staying in the big.

Gotcha. I still don’t see unequal revenue sharing in the future.

 

[RustShack]

Ok. Are we expecting an announcement tomorrow, 1 Aug, related to new Big 12 members? What if this drags out with no schools from the Pac 12 moving to the Big 12? We may look a little weak.

No there won’t be an announcement tomorrow.

 

[JUKEBOX]

Ok. Are we expecting an announcement tomorrow, 1 Aug, related to new Big 12 members? What if this drags out with no schools from the Pac 12 moving to the Big 12? We may look a little weak.

No.

It's probably like 10% chance we hear something in August.

Then I think we hear something maybe as the B1G TV deal wraps up as to whether or not the Pac-12 is going to survive as a conference.

(Edit: if the B1G deal gets wrapped up in August, then the 10% percentage increases significantly)

 

[2speedy1]

Ok. Are we expecting an announcement tomorrow, 1 Aug, related to new Big 12 members? What if this drags out with no schools from the Pac 12 moving to the Big 12? We may look a little weak.

LOL, no.

PAC 30 day window doesnt end until Aug 5th so I would not expect anything until after that. If it does happen before then it has been a done deal for a while. My guess is it will be a couple weeks yet before anything.

I dont think it says anything about the strength of the B12

 

[Jeffrey Scott]

Is that Dave’s brother?

Yes, I know I butchered his name. My mistake that was unintentional. I just didn't bother to look it up.

 

[AlaCyclone]

Equal distribution is part of what makes the B1G and SEC so successful. I don't see either messing with that formula. Some schools are paid to win. Others are paid to lose or contribute in other ways (Basketball, Baseball, Academics, etc.)

 

[RustShack]

Equal distribution is part of what makes the B1G and SEC so successful. I don't see either messing with that formula. Some schools are paid to win. Others are paid to lose or contribute in other ways (Basketball, Baseball, Academics, etc.)

If anything you’d think they would have cared about it more when they were only making 30 million a year, or less. Not now that they going to be making 100 million.

 

[isucy86]

Despite how it seems I really do think there's an upper limit to who you can add before there's nobody else who adds value. I dont personally want to add a nothing school in Cal when we can wait a bit for a Pitt, VT, or Louisville who have much better fan bases and have history with member teams already.

The Pac 12 doesn't need to die for us to live either. They just need to be obviously not our level. Taking the mountian schools or Oregon and Washington is enough

Also overall idk why we should want conferences to die if they dont need to. More places for teams to play is good for the sport

The real question is who the TV Networks value more?

Cal a team in a top 4 (Edit #6) TV market vs Louisville, Va Tech, etc?

As I posted yesterday. Is the us vs them the only path forward between the Big12/Pac12? Or would the vast majority of teams in both conferences be better off approaching their next TV Contract jointly?

That might mean teams in both the current Pac12 and new Big12 get left out. But let it be a financial decision maximizing TV rights dollars among the 22 teams.

Obviously, that is complicated if the length of contract TV partners are looking for differs from what ALL the schools are willing to sign up for. But then again, if schools like OR, UW, etc have opt-out window with buy-out; all parties could be happy.

If the new Big12 is confident that 2024/2025 monies from a new contract are at least equal to the current Big12 contract, maybe the Big12 & ESPN/Fox would mutually agree to end the Big12's current contract to end a year early.

I know some people would view that as a victory for UT & OU. But if the money is equal or better, I rather move forward with a combination of Big12/Pac12 teams with the fall 2024 FB season.

 

[AlaCyclone]

If anything you’d think they would have cared about it more when they were only making 30 million a year, or less. Not now that they going to be making 100 million.

Something tells me they will all be able to pay their bills!

 

[scyclonekid]

It’s all about eyeballs and markets so should the big 12 consider looking at San Diego state? Big market, no NFL football to compete with new stadium that can expand to 55,000 etc. just throwing **** on the wall like every one else, also takes away another team for the PAC to expand with.

 

[Cloneon]

There is one problem with that though, At the same time they dont think those bottom teams deserve the same money as they do.

So if the, Alabamas and OSUs can get double or triple the money by getting rid of the Vandys and Northwesterns, they will figure out a way, or they will tell them to take a smaller cut. Which will eventually tear everything down.

It is what we have seen with Texas and OU, It is what we are seeing with Oregon and Washington. Saying it will never happen in the future with other leagues is short sighted, just because it hasn't yet. When those teams are trying to figure how to increase their income, and their is no other league to poach from that gains them money, they will start to come up with other ideas how to maximize their value and pay.

And I doubt it will be the schools that start the idea, it will be a network that says we can get you more if you do this, or that. And when that happens they will start to push for some kind of extra compensation from the conference or the threat of leaving will happen.

You are absolutely correct. However, we live in a world of instant gratification. When has any CEO ever cared about what the company looks like in 10 years unless their stock options are required to be held for that duration (which I believe no one actually does). They only care and do what they can about the 'now'. Same for the conference realignment. It only benefits those in the near future. And that's where you hit the nail on the head: when the time comes to maximize again, they'll throw anyone under the bus they need to.

 

[2speedy1]

If anything you’d think they would have cared about it more when they were only making 30 million a year, or less. Not now that they going to be making 100 million.

Except the way they have figured out how to increase the value of the conference the last couple rounds which in turn significantly increases their pay, is going to go away when there is no more high value programs to add.

So in 10-20 years when the networks tell them they are at max value already, and the bid is only going to include inflationary increases, meaning there is no major increases like we have seen for the last few rounds, they might look at things differently.

You have to also realize 30 million 15 years ago looked like 100 million today. Everyone thought that was insane money then.

Then you have to realize that when the media people start telling OSU, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, etc. they are worth 250M each or more and they could get that much In a separate league of like universities. Vs 100M in their current conference then you might reconsider.

That is when OSU and Michigan go to the B1G and say we want a larger share to stay or we are leaving to create a new power conference. Same with Alabama and Georgia.

These people only care about money. No matter what everyone thinks we are entering a new phase of stupid money.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Could this guy be more delusional? He really is living in his own fantasy world. Maybe along with Mandel and Wilner.

John Canzano

Is UCLA gone? Yup. But the Pac-12 left the door ajar and I left Los Angeles thinking about it. Column:

www.facebook.com

 

[clonehome]

So if they get ND, then its either JUST Stanford, or else they may go for 20 with Cal and UW too.

Great academics for all, Stanford, USC and ND all happy together. Cal makes the guvner shut up. All good.

Will Kliavkoff blame the Big12 for that too??

This seems plausible and if the B1G adds ND, Stanford, Cal and Washington then the PAC is done. What 4 does the Big 12 take? I think Oregon, Arizona, ASU and Colorado. Utah is left out and goes back to G5.

 

[agrabes]

This podcast from the Athlon Sports guys is a must listen. Start at the 28:00 mark.

Athlon U: The College Football Podcast

Football Podcast · Updated Weekly · Athlon U: The College Football Podcast presented by Athlon Sport previews and reviews every aspect of the greatest sport on the planet. Join Athlon’s college football expert Steve Lassan and sports p…

podcasts.apple.com

The TLDR version:
B1G is currently evaluating Oregon/WA/Stanford/Cal

If B1G passes, than we get those four + the corners.

If B1G takes them, we still get the corners.

He spoke pretty confidently that
1. There is no way/no how the PAC survives.

2. CBS may be willing to over pay for an expanded and rebranded Big 12 (they’re in danger of being shut out of the SEC/B1G).

He went on to surmise, after speaking with industry sources, that the new look Big 12 could be playing Thur/Fri/Sat after dark games.

He sounded pretty confident in all this, and that we’ll probably learn about the next expansion moves within about a month.

I listened to the podcast this afternoon and I think to add to that, something the main guy was emphasizing was that he believes the P12 is dissolving in the weeks following their media window closing regardless of what else happens. He went on to say he thinks that if 4/6/8 of the P12 schools join the B12, then it would be based on money from CBS and that CBS would require the conference to rebrand.

That would definitely be an interesting development if there was no longer an entity called the B12. In theory, it could help with the media perception and to have a major network dedicated to pumping up the "Future B12" brand similar to what ESPN does for the SEC.

 

[RustShack]

This seems plausible and if the B1G adds ND, Stanford, Cal and Washington then the PAC is done. What 4 does the Big 12 take? I think Oregon, Arizona, ASU and Colorado. Utah is left out and goes back to G5.

In this scenario I think the Big12 and networks would crunch the numbers and take a long look at taking all 5 as well as a SDSU, Boise, or Memphis as the 6th.