Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[1SEIACLONE]

Who said divest away from football? Not me
You're the guy saying the sky is falling and we'll be nothing more than UNI. Even though we'll be playing with mostly the same players, have access to great coaches, have historical fan support of 60k people at Jack Trice and playing teams like: K-State, Okie State, Arizona, Colorado, TCU, Louisville, etc.

I'm not pushing ISU drops out of competing at the CFP level, but we may not have a choice depending on where college football is headed. Do you know with 100 percent certainty? I don't.

I see basically three general paths forward:

• Cruz & Cantwell get their legislation passed and Big10/SEC agree to negotiate a single CFB media rights deal. Hopefully, that means a financial windfall for schools like Iowa State.
• Status quo. The P4 remains and each conference negotiates their own TV deal. We continue to see a wide disparity of what schools pay from among their combined House Settle Fund and in-house NIL funds. That means schools like Iowa State are paying it's football players around $13-15M annually and some teams in the Big10/SEC are paying it's football players north of $50M annually. Basically the MLB salary structure where Iowa State will be the Twins, Royals, Rays, Athletics, etc. And schools like Ohio State, Texas Michigan, A&M will be the Yankees/Dodgers.
• Big10/SEC breakaway. When Big10/SEC media rights come up for renewal (or it makes sense for their media partners) those 2 conferences continue to add attractive schools from Big12 & ACC. This would probably mean the Big12/ACC combine at some point and would likely have a negative impact on the Big12/ACC media rights deal. But it won't be a total implosion because we're talking schools like Iowa State, K-State, BYU, Va Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, etc.

If Pollard, Cook and other Big12/ACC leadership aren't considering what the last scenario entails, they wouldn't be doing their job. Heck, it's Jamie who said maybe the Big12/ACC should walk. I'd like to hope at worst, the status quo continues. And money isn't everything and Iowa State can be like the Tampa Rays with a low payroll and solid results on the field.

But the question would be: if ISU made the CFP, would we be competitive. Because I have concerns what happened to our roster last fall, will happen to a lesser degree every off-season because ISU has $15M to spend on players and there will be 20+ schools willing to spend $50M+. As Rogers develops players like: McDonald, Purdy, Kolar, Jontez Williams, Noel, Braymer, etc., at rthe first sign of their elite talent, they will jump ship for the big money.

Without the current funding or close, how can ISU and other teams compete with teams from the B10 and SEC? They can't and this idea that they can just cut back and will be fine is not going to happen. Because
we have two choices here, either move down to the Mid American level or stay in the fight and keeping trying to improve things.

Once you drop down there is no going back, and money for other programs start to drop, because football is funding most of this, so unless you plan to become Creighton or be like UCONN that is now reinvesting in football its not happening.

 

[cykadelic2]

 

[FinalFourCy]

 

[FinalFourCy]

Like JP said, if you’re leaving, you’re fully leaving

No benefits of separation without the costs. We will all burn this thing down if the P2 feels it’s time to do so

 

[NWICY]

LOL, this is a surprise to no one. Heck throw Olympic men's sports in the same boat. That is why wresting created their own We Will.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

LOL, this is a surprise to no one. Heck throw Olympic men's sports in the same boat. That is why wresting created their own We Will.

This needs to be the narrative to get dems on board as opposed to focusing on the labor hurdles the act causes

 

[FinalFourCy]

The SEC is so dependent on ESPN

If BIG locks up OTA again in 2029, ACC may get cut to save SEC

 

[Kinch]

The SEC is so dependent on ESPN

If BIG locks up OTA again in 2029, ACC may get cut to save SEC

Advertising down two percent.,Not a good trajectory.

 

[HouClone]

The SEC is so dependent on ESPN

If BIG locks up OTA again in 2029, ACC may get cut to save SEC

In related news on ESPN trying to shed costs, according to the ACC fans wanting to grab some Big 12 teams, they have a "cash cow" network (ACCN). Wrong. Having crummy football teams shown on it plus showing unprofitable minor sports doesn't sound like a cash cow. Sounds like a loss.

 

[cykadelic2]

In related news on ESPN trying to shed costs, according to the ACC fans wanting to grab some Big 12 teams, they have a "cash cow" network (ACCN). Wrong. Having crummy football teams shown on it plus showing unprofitable minor sports doesn't sound like a cash cow. Sounds like a loss.

If ACCN was such a cash cow, ACC payouts would be significantly higher than the B12's.

But the B12 adding UCF and UH can continue to be questioned as this article discusses the ongoing dilution factor with B12 payouts:

The Big 12 is making more money than ever. So why isn’t anyone richer?

Records show how the Big 12 Conference survived realignment at a cost after the league added Central Florida, BYU, Houston and Cincinnati.

www.usatoday.com

 

[FinalFourCy]

In related news on ESPN trying to shed costs, according to the ACC fans wanting to grab some Big 12 teams, they have a "cash cow" network (ACCN). Wrong. Having crummy football teams shown on it plus showing unprofitable minor sports doesn't sound like a cash cow. Sounds like a loss.

It is definitely a plus right now though

I don’t know if espn benefits from prematurely ending it. Adding CA and Texas has been good. Adding more new markets through 2036 could make sense

 

[Al_4_State]

The idea of either the Big 12 or ACC poaching the other is silly.

The Big 10 and SEC are going to take what they want out of the ACC, and then the leagues will merge into a third entity that probably demands inclusion in the playoff, but makes less money (kinda like they exist now). The Wake Forests and BCs of the world might just bail at that point. Maybe not.

The conference model as we knew it serves no purpose any more. It means nothing.

 

[FinalFourCy]

The idea of either the Big 12 or ACC poaching the other is silly.

The Big 10 and SEC are going to take what they want out of the ACC, and then the leagues will merge into a third entity that probably demands inclusion in the playoff, but makes less money (kinda like they exist now). The Wake Forests and BCs of the world might just bail at that point. Maybe not.

The conference model as we knew it serves no purpose any more. It means nothing.

ACC schools keeping the exit fees from schools going to P2 in that example?

Unless a full merger represents a higher per school average than could be achieved via poaching or a new conference in which both are poached, a merger is the silly prediction

 

[HouClone]

It is definitely a plus right now though

I don’t know if espn benefits from prematurely ending it. Adding CA and Texas has been good. Adding more new markets through 2036 could make sense

ACC gets Bay Area and Dallas, not the whole states. ESPN and ACC thought they were getting the whole states as in- carriage rate but didn't happen. But Bay Area and Dallas are large. Funny though nobody gives a crap about watching Stanford/Cal and same with SMU. It's like the Rutgers effect for the Big 10.

 

[MountainManHawk]

ACC schools keeping the exit fees from schools going to P2 in that example?

Unless a full merger represents a higher per school average than could be achieved via poaching or a new conference in which both are poached, a merger is the silly prediction

If the ACC is sitting on a pile of cash from the exit fees, they might try to use that to lure schools to help backfill rather than pursue a full merger. It would just depend on how many schools are left and how strong of a position the leftover ACC schools are in. They could try to create a west coast pod to go with Stanford and Cal. I could imagine Utah going for that, they don’t seem to like being in the same conference as BYU.

I could easily envision a full merger too, if the schools all just bet on strength in numbers and decide it’s better to all stick together.

 

[FinalFourCy]

ACC gets Bay Area and Dallas, not the whole states. ESPN and ACC thought they were getting the whole states as in- carriage rate but didn't happen. But Bay Area and Dallas are large. Funny though nobody gives a crap about watching Stanford/Cal and same with SMU. It's like the Rutgers effect for the Big 10.

Pedantic. Yes, it is only those metros

Was it not good for the ACC?

Plus revenue raping 3 schools

 

[FinalFourCy]

If the ACC is sitting on a pile of cash from the exit fees, they might try to use that to lure schools to help backfill rather than pursue a full merger. It would just depend on how many schools are left and how strong of a position the leftover ACC schools are in. They could try to create a west coast pod to go with Stanford and Cal. I could imagine Utah going for that, they don’t seem to like being in the same conference as BYU.

I could easily envision a full merger too, if the schools all just bet on strength in numbers and decide it’s better to all stick together.

Yes, the short answer is it depends. Many scenarios plausible

If 6 schools leave and 11 schools are sitting on $450+ million in exit money and ESPN deal, full merger to 27 being the most silly though. The more schools that end up in P2, the more the networks are looking to recover the cost increase by culling some schools of M2.

Could be by dumping ACC, moving 4 to 8 to Big 12. Or it could be dumping Big 12, and forcing ACC to use the exit fees to pay for Big 12 additions

 

[MugNight]

If the ACC is sitting on a pile of cash from the exit fees, they might try to use that to lure schools to help backfill rather than pursue a full merger. It would just depend on how many schools are left and how strong of a position the leftover ACC schools are in. They could try to create a west coast pod to go with Stanford and Cal. I could imagine Utah going for that, they don’t seem to like being in the same conference as BYU.

I could easily envision a full merger too, if the schools all just bet on strength in numbers and decide it’s better to all stick together.

I love the XII and I’m loyal to the Big 8 because nostalgia. But if ISU is staring down an implosion and conference relegation, I hope we consider the offer IF the ACC is in a power position and asks us to join.

 

[MountainManHawk]

Yes, the short answer is it depends. Many scenarios plausible

If 6 schools leave and 11 schools are sitting on $450+ million in exit money and ESPN deal, full merger to 27 being the most silly though.

And the more schools that end up in P2, the more the networks are looking to recover the cost increase by culling some schools of M2.

Could be by dumping ACC, moving 4 to 8 to Big 12. Or it could be dumping Big 12, and forcing ACC to use the exit fees to pay for Big 12 additions

Agreed. The Pac12 was left with a pile of cash and all of the infrastructure for the Pac12 tv network and it didn’t do them much good, they just used the cash to help a bunch of Mountain West schools pay their exit fees.

If I was a fan of WSU or OSU, I would have preferred they used all that cash to ask for an SMU type deal in the ACC where they just agree to no media money for the next 10 years in exchange for membership.

They theoretically still have CFP access and an easy schedule, but their association with a bunch of second tier schools like Colorado State and San Diego State has really hurt their brand. I know the travel would have been absurd and it’s a much harder path to the CFP but if I was a fan I would have much preferred the ACC to what they ended up with.

Relating that to the ACC, if I was a fan there I think I would prefer full merger just to maximize the number of big time brands you get to associate with, even if it makes the travel and path to the CFP harder.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Agreed. The Pac12 was left with a pile of cash and all of the infrastructure for the Pac12 tv network and it didn’t do them much good, they just used the cash to help a bunch of Mountain West schools pay their exit fees.

If I was a fan of WSU or OSU, I would have preferred they used all that cash to ask for an SMU type deal in the ACC where they just agree to no media money for the next 10 years in exchange for membership.

They theoretically still have CFP access and an easy schedule, but their association with a bunch of second tier schools like Colorado State and San Diego State has really hurt their brand. I know the travel would have been absurd and it’s a much harder path to the CFP but if I was a fan I would have much preferred the ACC to what they ended up with.

Just cash from tournament credits though, not exit fees. The ACC will have both.

Unfortunately for those two, even playing for free in ACC wasn’t an option. The ACC barely had votes for Stanford, Cal, and SMU