Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[BCClone]

Unfortunately, large salaries don't eliminate you from being a non-profit. Look at the ivy league foundations as their CEOs all make two to three million dollars a year running their nonprofits.

I know, more throwing in that they are acting purely like a business with these contracts, buyouts and such. The old stigma is that non-profit employees are supposed to be underpaid (where I worked we were) in comparison to the private sector. This area is not anymore.

 

[Kinch]

So he’s basically saying we are going down to 3 conferences. If you add up the numbers in the 4, you get around 60-70

I don’t trust much this guy puts out. Seems like he is still trying to be relevant.

 

[BCClone]

I don’t trust much this guy puts out. Seems like he is still trying to be relevant.

I honestly thought he had passed away.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

So he’s basically saying we are going down to 3 conferences. If you add up the numbers in the 4, you get around 60-70

Good point. I am not sure how he thinks the math will be different here. Is he suggesting G5 will get even less? Consider the source too.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

I honestly thought he had passed away.

I believe that was Blue & Gold Guy on YouTube.

 

[Al_4_State]

Blum leaves We Will and now this??

We'd be part of that.

 

[aeroclone]

Blum leaves We Will and now this??

This statement isn't as shocking as it initially reads. 60-70 teams is big enough to include all existing P4 members. So a scenario where the B1G, SEC, and B12 carve up the ACC could result in this 3 conference 60-70 team alignment for a big payday with very few schools being left behind.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Are you sure in the black? Just using Iowa, I don’t want to look up all of them, they are just shy of 250MM in debt. 110 would cut it almost in half, but they have been struggling to pay off the 250 and the bonds are going to reset interest rates in the next year or two so most likely the rates will double.

I believe the media payouts will increase, but we may have have seen the large increases already happen. These deals doing 2-3x increases in 6 years may be over. ESPN and others have already trimmed staffing and talent. They have even went with cheaper talent in some regards as the broadcasters aren’t at the same level as they used to be.

Don’t know their situation but a lot of schools are doing some creative accounting where the debt pay off is taken into account based on future years. Could be their situation is way different but if you’re right it’s kinda close to their only option which is why I could see them doing it. No idea how they got in that position with the stability at FB coach but that’s wild

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I don’t trust much this guy puts out. Seems like he is still trying to be relevant.

Agreed, not sure why people keep posting a guy who is so blatantly wrong all the time. I was ecstatic when he posted about the PE deal being a lock because I knew it wasn’t happening then

 

[BCClone]

Don’t know their situation but a lot of schools are doing some creative accounting where the debt pay off is taken into account based on future years. Could be their situation is way different but if you’re right it’s kinda close to their only option which is why I could see them doing it. No idea how they got in that position with the stability at FB coach but that’s wild

A lot of lawsuits and excessive spending on improvements

 

[Kinch]

A lot of lawsuits and excessive spending on improvements

They also got hurt in 2020 when they had no paying customers for football. But you are exactly right about the lawsuits and spending.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

They also got hurt in 2020 when they had no paying customers for football. But you are exactly right about the lawsuits and spending.

Yeah the Covid hit was an issue as so many programs bake in that debt payoff to future years so that lost season threw alot of big ten schools into a bad financial year

 

[Al_4_State]

This statement isn't as shocking as it initially reads. 60-70 teams is big enough to include all existing P4 members. So a scenario where the B1G, SEC, and B12 carve up the ACC could result in this 3 conference 60-70 team alignment for a big payday with very few schools being left behind.

Exactly.

This looks like the Big 10 and SEC taking the premium ACC schools, and the Big 12 and ACC merging with the leftovers.

We'd make less than the Big 2 but have a seat at the table.

 

[cykadelic2]

So he’s basically saying we are going down to 3 conferences. If you add up the numbers in the 4, you get around 60-70

...which has been the most likely scenario if ESPN and Fox have their way and continue their control of the sport.

And where the tweet is wheels off is stating the ACC/B12 will continue with "Tier One" payouts. That won't happen, the ACC/B12 leftovers will have their payouts reduced and financially destroyed like Washington St and Oregon St.

Of course, the fix is media rights pooling, 7x10 realignment and a media bidding process like the NFL that would at least double existing payouts for all of FBS.

 

[BCClone]

...which has been the most likely scenario if ESPN and Fox have their way and continue their control of the sport.

And where the tweet is wheels off is stating the ACC/B12 will continue with "Tier One" payouts. That won't happen, the ACC/B12 leftovers will have their payouts reduced and financially destroyed like Washington St and Oregon St.

Of course, the fix is media rights pooling, 7x10 realignment and a media bidding process like the NFL that would at least double existing payouts for all of FBS.

I would think the worst thing for the Big Ten and SEC is to go down to three power conferences. Fox would take one ESPN would take the other and then they would kind of split the third one. What would be the incentive to bit up for any of them then?

 

[isucy86]

I would think the worst thing for the Big Ten and SEC is to go down to three power conferences. Fox would take one ESPN would take the other and then they would kind of split the third one. What would be the incentive to bit up for any of them then?

I am not a big believer in this fixed duopoly of ESPN(Disney) & FOX. They both currently operate from a position of power/leverage. ESPN because it's the "worldwide leader in sports". It's entire business model is televising sports so it is critical for them to buy sport properties to fulfill their "worldwide leader" status. FOX has leverage because of it's ownership of Big10 media rights. Also, people overlook that both Comcast (NBC) & Paramount Skydance (CBS) each invested $350M annually in Big10 media rights. Each investing the same as FOX.

But their roles are not a given. Especially, the ESPN & SEC relationship. The linear SECN will not be a hook in 2034. It will be an albatross. FOX has the hook, but any partnership can be dissolved. Or another Corporation could make FOX a financial offer they can't refuse.

Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Warner Bros/Discovery, Comcast (NBC Universal), Paramount/Skydance have deep pockets and can financially compete with Disney or FOX for college sport media rignts. Just a matter of how much they view live sports as a hook to bring subscribers to their platforms.

If I were Yormark, I would count on ESPN/FOX NOT being significant bidders for the Big12's media rights in 2031. The fact neither stepped up in 2023 to increase the Big12's media deal is pretty telling. The good thing:

• There are other deep pocketed companies in the media space
• Each of the companies is trying to grow subscribers to their platforms
• Platforms as tools to sell product is in its infancy

Sure there is some risk to the Big 12, but there is also an opportunity to close the gap with the Big12/SEC.

 

[Die4Cy]

So he’s basically saying we are going down to 3 conferences. If you add up the numbers in the 4, you get around 60-70

Three media deals but essentially what amounts to 6 conferences with crossover scheduling. What was old would be new again.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I'd love to know how many subs that Big Ten, and to a lesser extent Big 12 and Big East, content drives to Peacock and if that number is large enough to offset what they're going to lose when they lose the WWE library next year.

 

[KnappShack]

I am not a big believer in this fixed duopoly of ESPN(Disney) & FOX. They both currently operate from a position of power/leverage. ESPN because it's the "worldwide leader in sports". It's entire business model is televising sports so it is critical for them to buy sport properties to fulfill their "worldwide leader" status. FOX has leverage because of it's ownership of Big10 media rights. Also, people overlook that both Comcast (NBC) & Paramount Skydance (CBS) each invested $350M annually in Big10 media rights. Each investing the same as FOX.

But their roles are not a given. Especially, the ESPN & SEC relationship. The linear SECN will not be a hook in 2034. It will be an albatross. FOX has the hook, but any partnership can be dissolved. Or another Corporation could make FOX a financial offer they can't refuse.

Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Warner Bros/Discovery, Comcast (NBC Universal), Paramount/Skydance have deep pockets and can financially compete with Disney or FOX for college sport media rignts. Just a matter of how much they view live sports as a hook to bring subscribers to their platforms.

If I were Yormark, I would count on ESPN/FOX NOT being significant bidders for the Big12's media rights in 2031. The fact neither stepped up in 2023 to increase the Big12's media deal is pretty telling. The good thing:

• There are other deep pocketed companies in the media space
• Each of the companies is trying to grow subscribers to their platforms
• Platforms as tools to sell product is in its infancy

Sure there is some risk to the Big 12, but there is also an opportunity to close the gap with the Big12/SEC.

 

[Die4Cy]

Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Warner Bros/Discovery, Comcast (NBC Universal), Paramount/Skydance have deep pockets and can financially compete with Disney or FOX for college sport media rignts. Just a matter of how much they view live sports as a hook to bring subscribers to their platforms.

ESPN's, or really any broadcast network's, real power was in the cable tv carriage model. As that erodes, funds available will shift to live sports since those viewers are "stickier" overall, but over time as the universe of viewing options expands they will lose clout. We are already at that stage now. But there are real problems with viewership on a pay-as-you-go model via streaming as it becomes more expensive to get games that are harder and harder to find. I think the days where media rights move upward consistently is pretty much over. The future will look a lot more like college sports pay per view across a host of providers. Not sure we will like that as consumers.