Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[RonBurgundy]

ISU will never be in the B1G. ISU will never be in the SEC. Some of you dudes just need to stop.

If the future is a P2 of B1G and SEC at 24 teams or something each, it won’t be ISU to round this out.

 

[LLCoolCY]

ISU will never be in the B1G. ISU will never be in the SEC. Some of you dudes just need to stop.

If the future is a P2 of B1G and SEC at 24 teams or something each, it won’t be ISU to round this out.

ISU won't be invited to a 24 team SEC/B1G. It is important to be in the 3rd best conference and my hope is with Yormark being proactive the B12 will be that.

I think the end game is for the SEC and BIG to eventually break off from the NCAA and be one 64 ish team Premiere conference (64 = NCAA bb tourney). All efforts need to be exhausted for ISU to make the top 64 cut if/when the break with the NCAA occurs.

 

[MartyFine]

ISU won't be invited to a 24 team SEC/B1G. It is important to be in the 3rd best conference and my hope is with Yormark being proactive the B12 will be that.

I think the end game is for the SEC and BIG to eventually break off from the NCAA and be one 64 ish team Premiere conference (64 = NCAA bb tourney). All efforts need to be exhausted for ISU to make the top 64 cut if/when the break with the NCAA occurs.

No, just keep expanding the playoff. BIG/SEC can have 24 or 28 or 32 teams, but only 5-6 (combined from both leagues) have a legitimate shot at the playoff every year. Big 12 parity gives everyone a shot, and combined with current TV deal makes it appealing however you want to measure it with ACC/PAC.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Agree won't impact media dollars, but does having an interim Pres at Stanford mess up the leadership or coherence (or lack thereof) for the PAC? It's one more uncertainty they didn't need. Suddenly what might have been a strong voice at the table is now likely neutered.

I don’t think so but I get what you’re saying. The president at Stanford has about a thousand things more important to deal with the the AD and the school has so much money they could go independent or join the ivys without blinking an eye.

 

[AuH2O]

I don’t think so but I get what you’re saying. The president at Stanford has about a thousand things more important to deal with the the AD and the school has so much money they could go independent or join the ivys without blinking an eye.

I think the decision of whether or not to accept a media deal, unless it changes things in practice in a MAJOR way is an AD decision, especially at Stanford.

It's one thing when a decision is to move to a new conference. The University president at a place like Stanford isn't getting involved in a decision between $20M per year with 50% linear vs. $25M with 25% linear, for example. That's an AD decision, and I bet a Stanford president doesn't give two ***** about something like that.

I don't know how accurate the numbers are for a private like Stanford, but a school with an endowment of almost $40B was recently cutting sports and had an athletics budget of something like $130M. Maybe the next President will emphasize athletics, but I just don't see it being a big deal either way at Stanford.

 

[2speedy1]

Think the ACCN is about $10 million for them. Not sure if the ESPN is a flat $17M or if it escalates.

But wouldnt that mean the Pac would have to sell off the PACN, to equal the ACCN money? Also the ACCN is owned by ESPN, so isnt that money already figured into the ESPN $17M.

Honestly them Selling the PACN would be best considering they have been losing money and carriage/exposure on it. But they have been refusing to do so.

 

[CycloneErik]

Kentucky only sort of counts as being in the union. Lincoln begged them enough that they finally relented.

Tennessee crossed the border before Ohio did. That was the last straw there.

 

[jcyclonee]

Tennessee crossed the border before Ohio did. That was the last straw there.

I'm still going with Lincoln begged them to join his side. Wearing someone down is a remarkably effective negotiating strategy.

 

[ricochet]

I wouldn't assume the Big 10 takes anyone to "pair" with Notre Dame. Now that divisions are a thing of the past, there's no need for even numbers. Especially if it's for a school that doesn't pay their own way.

It's an issue if you want to play 9 conference games. I doubt they would go to 10 and reducing the number of conference games while increasing the number of teams is just stupid - so of course that is what they would end up doing.

 

[isucy86]

Cheer, cheer, for old Notre Dame... ND is the prize. B1G is probably on pause until they can get ND, and whatever package is required to get them is what they will do.

UW/UO don't do enough, but if those two plus Stanford got ND as a 4th? Done.
Need to wait for the ACC to disband? And maybe grab a couple of those to get ND? Done.
Some combination of both and go to 24 teams? Done.

I think B1G is pat at 16 until ND is on the table.

IMO the Big10 will be patient because it saves them money. Still think future realignment will be sequential:

1. CU - if just CU jumps, the Pac10 will backfill with SDSU.
2. Arizona -
3. OR/WA - The Big10 add if the Pac 10 is teetering and the Big10 can get at deep discount.
4. ASU and Utah jumps to Big12 as a Pac6 means consolidation with MWC.
5. ND deal with NBC runs through 2025. Do they stay independent or join Big10?
6. ACC GOR will be tested 2024-2026

Otherwise, we are waiting until the Pac10, Big12 and Big10 media rights deals come up for renewal in the early 2030's.

 

[isucy86]

Agree won't impact media dollars, but does having an interim Pres at Stanford mess up the leadership or coherence (or lack thereof) for the PAC? It's one more uncertainty they didn't need. Suddenly what might have been a strong voice at the table is now likely neutered.

I think the NW hazing/bullying allegations are a bigger wake up call for Presidents across the country about the current governance model.

Athletics are basically a ZERO SUM game at best: Expenses >= Revenue. The NW Athletic Department won't be on the hook, the university endowment will have to pay. Obviously, NW can afford to pay a few hundred million. But unlike a lot of P5 schools, Northwestern Athletics will NEVER be the universities front door.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

IMO the Big10 will be patient because it saves them money. Still think future realignment will be sequential:

1. CU - if just CU jumps, the Pac10 will backfill with SDSU.
2. Arizona -
3. OR/WA - The Big10 add if the Pac 10 is teetering and the Big10 can get at deep discount.
4. ASU and Utah jumps to Big12 as a Pac6 means consolidation with MWC.
5. ND deal with NBC runs through 2025. Do they stay independent or join Big10?
6. ACC GOR will be tested 2024-2026

Otherwise, we are waiting until the Pac10, Big12 and Big10 media rights deals come up for renewal in the early 2030's.

5-ND stays independent because NBC is going to give them Big Ten money and let them remain independent. There's a reason they hired NBC Sports' Chief Executive to replace Swarbrick.

If I were the Big 12, I make a big swing at Washington/Oregon. Even if you know their end goal is the Big Ten, you might as well be the ones to make money off of them while they're in limbo. Add Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State and UConn and be done with it. If/when Washington and Oregon leave you still have a very solid 16 team league to fall back on.

 

[RonBurgundy]

I guess my question is how does the PAC Catch 22 have a resolution? The PAC cannot offer known content as they don't know if teams will leave, but on the other hand, apparently CU and UA won't decide until they see the numbers. So, how can the media members offer a new deal? I guess they can offer a deal assuming the 10 remaining schools stay together, but what if one or more leave? Could there be pre-negiotiated "de-escalators"? Certainly the media members are not providing an entire menu of alternatives that cover multiple different scenarios.

 

[isucy86]

5-ND stays independent because NBC is going to give them Big Ten money and let them remain independent. There's a reason they hired NBC Sports' Chief Executive to replace Swarbrick.

If I were the Big 12, I make a big swing at Washington/Oregon. Even if you know their end goal is the Big Ten, you might as well be the ones to make money off of them while they're in limbo. Add Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State and UConn and be done with it. If/when Washington and Oregon leave you still have a very solid 16 team league to fall back on.

I agree that ND will stay independent as long as it feels the ACC offers them a lifeline (4-5 games annually) from a football scheduling perspective. But over the next 2-3 years if it looks like the ACC could fall apart, Notre Dame could jump to Big10 instead of staying independent.

The other thing sitting out these is the CFP money distribution. Currently, ND is taken care of and has an attractive path to the CFP. But when the new rules are established for the 2026 season, will ND be taken care of?

 

[Cyclone Pfan]

Cheer, cheer, for old Notre Dame... ND is the prize. B1G is probably on pause until they can get ND, and whatever package is required to get them is what they will do.

UW/UO don't do enough, but if those two plus Stanford got ND as a 4th? Done.
Need to wait for the ACC to disband? And maybe grab a couple of those to get ND? Done.
Some combination of both and go to 24 teams? Done.

I think B1G is pat at 16 until ND is on the table.

I think the B1G has everything they need from ND if the B1G media contract holds forward into the new contracts... they're going to start scheduling more B1G/ND games which I believe bolstered both the recent B1G media deal and ND independence. They also share the double NBC saturday slots.

 

[MugNight]

I agree that ND will stay independent as long as it feels the ACC offers them a lifeline (4-5 games annually) from a football scheduling perspective. But over the next 2-3 years if it looks like the ACC could fall apart, Notre Dame could jump to Big10 instead of staying independent.

The other thing sitting out these is the CFP money distribution. Currently, ND is taken care of and has an attractive path to the CFP. But when the new rules are established for the 2026 season, will ND be taken care of?

Another facet for ND is the # of rivals it has in the Big 10. Michigan, USC, Purdue, Mich St. Outside of the Big 10, it’s Navy, Pitt, Boston College, Stanford, and kind of Miami. There are some attractive scheduling scenarios if they join the Big 10.

Will USC, Michigan, Mich St want to keep ND as an OOC in a packed Big 10? ND’s path is probably easier through the ACC.

 

[Acylum]

Sounds like Stanford president is resigning due to potentially manipulated research dating back to 2001. Not sure of details, but it appears the student newspaper did the preliminary investigation.

It will be interesting if this has any impact on the Pac 12 dealings. Not a good look to claim the importance of research and academics when the leader of their premier university lacks integrity.

Also, hats off to student investigative journalism. Northwestern and Stanford have been shining stars, while the mainstream media continues cutting back on one of its primary missions.

Thankfully Stanford is above reproach. Also, the student newspaper didn’t actually “investigate” anything. They just took the time to read the actual report from the independent investigation.

 

[loyalson4evatru]

i am looking forward to watching the Eastern Iowa Squirm once they have to play a tougher conference schedule again.

heard many of their fans say they are looking forward to because tired of hearing about how bad Big Ten West has been.

can't wait to hear how happy they are once reality hits and realize they aren't anywhere close to top of that conference.

 

[Acylum]

Locked on b1g pod questioning whether USCLA have any idea what they’re in for. With powerhouses like Rutgers, Maryland, NW, Purdue, Indiana, Nebraska, MSU etc, they may be rethinking their decision. Throw in the offensive genius of Brain and they may go crawling back to the PAC when they come to their senses.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

5-ND stays independent because NBC is going to give them Big Ten money and let them remain independent. There's a reason they hired NBC Sports' Chief Executive to replace Swarbrick.

If I were the Big 12, I make a big swing at Washington/Oregon. Even if you know their end goal is the Big Ten, you might as well be the ones to make money off of them while they're in limbo. Add Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State and UConn and be done with it. If/when Washington and Oregon leave you still have a very solid 16 team league to fall back on.

The B12 can swing all they want to get Washington/Oregon and they will just say, "no thank you." No way will either join the B12, while the possibility to get into the B10 or SEC is out there. Plus it would be silly for the B12 to allow them to join, and then leave if the B10 or SEC comes calling. The last thing the league needs is to reenforce the idea that every team in the league is just waiting to jump, even if they are.

Those two schools are staying where they are, until they either get an invite, or the P12 folds. Because waiting for them to get an invite is worth more than the short-term money increase, they could gain from the B12.