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Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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I would think the Big12 would be there with open arms. Sure the Big12 extension doesn't kick in until a year after the Pac12 ends. But the media partners don't change and the ESPN arrangement is governed by a pro-rata. My guess is ESPN would be happy for Big12 to add 2-4 teams as there would then be 3-5 Big12 teams to fit into ESPN after dark slot.
So the next question is FOX, do they pony up $50-60M annually for 4 Pac12 teams to keep the Big12 media rights partners limited to ESPN/FOX? If FOX isn't interested, then Yormark can shop what FOX decided not to pick up. Would a streamer or linear (CW/TBS/USA) be willing to pay more for limited inventory/investment.
With the Pac12, they are looking for $275-$325M investment to feed 10 schools. The Big12 may only be looking for $50-$60M.
I gotta believe that Oregon and Washington would be a bargain for ESPN/FOX at Big12's pro-rata for extension pricing. So I don't think those 2 schools have to worry about being left out.
But they're trying to avoid committing to anything long term as they still have hopes for the Big10. The PAC allows them the freedom of availability if the Big ever comes calling. The Big12 will want an iron clad GOR deal for them to come. So the uncertainty in the PAC allows them to keep pursuing the dream of the Big10. If a team were to leave for the Big12, that dream probably dies as they wouldn't be able to risk getting left out.
I might be reaching here, but would Oregon and Washington in the XII long term cement the XII in the “P3” with BIG + SEC when the ACC inevitably gets raided and loses its largest brands? Or will it always be P2 and then a fight to be the most upper middle class for the others?
IMO it is B1G first. SEC very close second. Big XII third. Oregon and Washington narrows the gap.
I understand this position could be foolish, but I don't want any members who don't want to be in the big 12, or believe they SHOULD be somewhere "better". Yes, maybe we should "use the Oregon and Washington brands" for a period of time if that opportunity arose (I don't think it will), maybe they would actually stick long term, but I think they would bring instability and be working against us the whole time.
Yes, if we got a BIG 10 invite tomorrow we would take it, but we understand that isn't happening. I don't want members who don't understand their place, or value our conference.
I think Arizona might value the big 12 more than anyone in this current re-alignment period.
Yes, if we got a BIG 10 invite tomorrow we would take it, but we understand that isn't happening. I don't want members who don't understand their place, or value our conference.
I think Arizona might value the big 12 more than anyone in this current re-alignment period.
Any PAC collapse with the better PAC schools going to Big 12 cements the Big 12 as the 3rd conference Imo
It’ll be a P2 still, but for the Big 12 there wouldn’t be a fight to be the “other” conference. An ACC that loses schools to P2 is going to be further picked apart by Big 12. Potentially completely removed
The potential disruption is ND. If they were to join ACC, it would change the course
Personally I think the ACC is a small notch above the Big XII when it comes to teams. If the ACC would have a couple teams go to the Big Ten and a couple go to the SEC, then I think the Big XII would be the third in line if they picked up the next best 2 out of that. Oregon and Washington going to the ACC would lock them into 3rd if they didn't lose any teams, but I just don't see that happening. Plus you are talking two teams on way different areas from the rest.
After what we've been through over the past 10 years and my reliance on anti-depressants, I say invite only those schools who really, really, really want to be in the Big 12. If we can't get to really, really, really want, I'll settle for really.
Otherwise, wake me when this is over.
Otherwise, wake me when this is over.
The Athletic article this morning notes a new suitor in the mix for PAC12 media....the CW. No joke.
I have been following the PAC12 media stuff closely as it is much more fun to watch from the outside compared to the last 20 years of Texas trying to scuttle the BIG12.
Between the Monty Show (Utah shills) and Greg Fluguar, it’s pretty obvious that the money isn’t there. Tongue in cheek estimates are that the PAC schools have offers that total in the “low teens” of millions per school. GK is scrambling to find streamers or some media partner to make up the other $12 million.
Personally, I am not cheering for the end of the PAC12, but I am pulling for the continued survival of the BIG12z
Between the Monty Show (Utah shills) and Greg Fluguar, it’s pretty obvious that the money isn’t there. Tongue in cheek estimates are that the PAC schools have offers that total in the “low teens” of millions per school. GK is scrambling to find streamers or some media partner to make up the other $12 million.
Personally, I am not cheering for the end of the PAC12, but I am pulling for the continued survival of the BIG12z
Chris Williams is buying the PAC TV rights? Does that mean we get them for free here?
Definitely if the ACC and Big 12 as they both stand right now were both negotiating new deals I think the ACC would probably be worth more. But if the ACC was at the end of its deal there are enough good brands that SEC and Big 10 would poach that the best of the rest would be better off in the Big 12.
Regardless of what future additions may be, the Big 12 has settled in to a nice steady state. Good solid brands with consistent fanbases and tv ratings, yet nobody left that probably is going to get an SEC or Big 10 invite.
I understand that logic. But nobody really knows what college football will structurally look like in 2031, 2036, etc.
So why not create the BEST 3rd conference in the 2024-2031 window? If that means Oregon & Washington in the Big12- I'm onboard. Likewise if that means: Arizona, Colorado, Oregon and Oregon State- bring it on.
I am in the camp that additions AND subtractions from Big12 are probably a reality over the next decade. No change from the last decade.
The ACC has better top Brands/teams, but worse bottom brands, by quite a bit. I would say the Pac is that way top to bottom too.
Part of what makes the Big 12 good, stable and higher value, is that everyone is fairly equal, and towards the middle to upper tier values of the ACC and PAC. Our average value is better than those because of this. Their top brands/are not high enough value to bring up the average from their low value teams.
I have seen that floated around the last few days, its funny that their own media propagandists are actually putting this out there, and trying to spin it as a positive. It really is getting to sound more and more desperate on their part.
The money differences being what they are, every team in the Big 12 wants to be in the Big 10 or SEC.
Every PAC team wants to be in the Big 10 or SEC more than the Big 12. I don’t think it’s as much Arizona wanting to be in the Big 12 while the others don’t as it is Arizona being the first to exit the denial stage that the money and stability are going to be greater in the Big 12.
As for Oregon and UW, they’re either going to be high enough value for the Big 10 to offer, or they won’t. What they want will be irrelevant, and where they think they belong will be answered for them by the Big 10.
Let’s not act like there’s any certainty that the top value teams in the Big 12 in the future don’t start causing problems. None of the current teams caused problems, because none would’ve been helped by things like unequal shares while OU and UT or NU and TAMU were in the league.
