Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cyfan92]

You could argue Arizona is a poor man’s KU.

Unless there were definitive numbers indicating they’d drag down the per-school media rights payment dramatically it would be insane for the Big 12 to pass them up if given the chance to add them.

Tuscon MSA is 1M people. That would likely be top 1/2 in the Big 12 on day 1. The actual city is nearly 600K and growing. AZ has a ton of alumni in PHX and SoCal.

Do yourself a favor and search The University of Arizona on Instagram places. You're welcome.

I bet KU fans would sign up for the AZ football record the past 10 years versus there own. Since 2009 their basketball program has 7 trips to a sweet 16 and 3 trips to an elite 8.

I for one would LOVE a trip to Tuscon in November/December plus having another basketball blue blood makes this so far and away the #1 basketball conference.. It's silly

 

[knowlesjam]

Tuscon MSA is 1M people. That would likely be top 1/2 in the Big 12 on day 1. The actual city is nearly 600K and growing. AZ has a ton of alumni in PHX and SoCal.

Do yourself a favor and search The University of Arizona on Instagram places. You're welcome.

I bet KU fans would sign up for the AZ football record the past 10 years versus there own. Since 2009 their basketball program has 7 trips to a sweet 16 and 3 trips to an elite 8.

I for one would LOVE a trip to Tuscon in November/December plus having another basketball blue blood makes this so far and away the #1 basketball conference.. It's silly

Lived 2 years in Tucson...went to the old Insight Bowl a couple of times. U of A fans do know their basketball and would be a great add to the Big 12. Blue blood-wise though, I'd put them a step behind KU, but easily #2 in the conference. The other sports would be a nice add to overall conference strength.

And yes, a few 80 degree days in January were nice too...

 

[CloneGuy8]

There are tiers of basketball blue bloods. Top tier is schools like Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, and North Catolina. I'd put Arizona in tier 2 with schools like Michigan State, Louisville, ect.

 

[cyfan92]

This is page 1 of the Arizona admission packet to the Big 12

https://www.instagram.com/explore/locations/281722681/university-of-arizona/?hl=en

 

[12191987]

Tuscon MSA is 1M people. That would likely be top 1/2 in the Big 12 on day 1. The actual city is nearly 600K and growing. AZ has a ton of alumni in PHX and SoCal.

Do yourself a favor and search The University of Arizona on Instagram places. You're welcome.

I bet KU fans would sign up for the AZ football record the past 10 years versus there own. Since 2009 their basketball program has 7 trips to a sweet 16 and 3 trips to an elite 8.

I for one would LOVE a trip to Tuscon in November/December plus having another basketball blue blood makes this so far and away the #1 basketball conference.. It's silly

To be clear, I said they were a no-brainer add?

That said, Arizona is a fantastic basketball program, but they aren’t Kansas.

Arizona’s football program has been marginally better than Kansas over the last 20 years. I’d argue they’d have finished behind KU last season if they were in the Big 12, and probably would do the same this year. They’re decidedly not a football school.

Who cares? You add them if you can.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Wonder if this means anything

No, but Wilner, Mandel and Canzano will act like that it means Big 12 is imploding and PAC 12 is almighty and powerful (even though USC is leaving PAC 12)

 

[Stormin]

I like the additions of Arizona and Colorado. Decent schools that Campbell should beat consistently. Solidifies Conference and good traveling partners with good enough sports.

 

[drmwevr08]

I like the additions of Arizona and Colorado. Decent schools that Campbell should beat consistently. Solidifies Conference and good traveling partners with good enough sports.

But does it improve, or at least keep static, the payouts? Otherwise, no thanks.

 

[RustShack]

But does it improve, or at least keep static, the payouts? Otherwise, no thanks.

If Arizona and Colorado leave, others will follow. Including Oregon and Washington if the B1G offer doesn’t come. Get the GoR signed and continue on. If they don’t sign they stay in a conference of all G5.

Amazon wants 16+ schools, and will overpay for T3 rights.

 

[LLCoolCY]

But does it improve, or at least keep static, the payouts? Otherwise, no thanks.

That’s the question… the case for further weakening if not dissolving the PAC12 should factor too. Sadly it is a race to be the clear 3rd power conference is on. Big12 can take advantage of the instability PAC12 of the ACC excessively stabile GOR and be the P3 by grabbing 2 or 4 schools now it will be the long run play.
End game is to be viable to be absorbed into an eventual 64 super conference in my mind. Getting the 3rd most money until then is the case.

 

[isutrevman]

But does it improve, or at least keep static, the payouts? Otherwise, no thanks.

I don't care, pick 'em up. I'm not worried about pinching every penny in the short term. I'm more concerned with building a conference that will be stable, and remain as the 3rd best conference in the country long term. 10-20 years at least.

 

[drmwevr08]

I don't care, pick 'em up. I'm not worried about pinching every penny in the short term. I'm more concerned with building a conference that will be stable, and remain as the 3rd best conference in the country long term. 10-20 years at least.

That's part of my point. If we take a couple marginal teams and the PAC+ACC ends up with something that usurps 3rd, then what?
I'm not saying that seems likely, I just wonder about taking marginal schools in hopes it breaks the PAC. I'm not saying it won't, just a risk is all.

 

[RustShack]

Adding more beatable schools isn’t a bad thing. The B1G and SEC have benefited from a bad bottom. It helps them get more wins, helps with recruiting, helps with perception of school/conference, and repeat.

We aren’t getting B1G SEC money no matter who we add, we just need to build a strong conference that’s clearly #3 and see where it puts us in the next few media deals. Power houses change, and there could be a new one or two in the new Big12 10 years from now.

Go get CBS/NBC and Amazon.

 

[WhoISthis]

That’s the question… the case for further weakening if not dissolving the PAC12 should factor too. Sadly it is a race to be the clear 3rd power conference is on. Big12 can take advantage of the instability PAC12 of the ACC excessively stabile GOR and be the P3 by grabbing 2 or 4 schools now it will be the long run play.

Exactly.

There are a few schools in the Big 12 that may only care about max revenue, thinking they’ll be in any P4 or P3 setup, but Big 12 HQ and a few schools don’t have that luxury. Knowing the PAC is dead is more security and certainty than nearly any plausible revenue differences between outcomes.

Even the schools that think they are locks, prefer the Big 12 be the base. Better to play KSU than Oregon St, for example. Or worse, there be a P4, and now a fringe school like WVU and Cincinnati are now.

Of course those two schools and UCF may be the exceptions. Would they rather the ACC be the base of 3rd conference? That is the biggest risk to ISU imo.

Get a Big 16/18/20, no PAC, and it’s much more likely the Big 12 becomes the 3rd super conference. Worth millions to JP imo

 

[Clonedogg]

If Arizona and Colorado leave, others will follow. Including Oregon and Washington if the B1G offer doesn’t come. Get the GoR signed and continue on. If they don’t sign they stay in a conference of all G5.

Amazon wants 16+ schools, and will overpay for T3 rights.

Agree this is the only way it make sense, if they are in a group with other schools. If Big12 takes 2 of #7-#9 of the remaining Pac10 and it stops there, seems like Pac could back fill pretty easily and keep trucking.

 

[Clonedogg]

You could argue Arizona is a poor man’s KU.

Unless there were definitive numbers indicating they’d drag down the per-school media rights payment dramatically it would be insane for the Big 12 to pass them up if given the chance to add them.

"A poor man's KU"...in a football only matters expansion..."it would be insane for the Big 12 to pass them up"

Good Lord! we are a desperate conference.

 

[WhoISthis]

Agree this is the only way it make sense, if they are in a group with other schools. If Big12 takes 2 of #7-#9 of the remaining Pac10 and it stops there, seems like Pac could back fill pretty easily and keep trucking.

Imo you’re overestimating the ability of that conference to backfill. If there were options anywhere close to AZ and CU, they would have been added.

A Pac8, compromised of 4 schools looking to leave and Oregon St and WSU isn’t just backfilling and keep trucking. The Pac12 was projected a peer in revenue to Big 12 and struggling to stay in front of G5 in performance. A Pac8 plus mountain west schools is not tenable, and schools would follow AZ and CU.

I don’t think the Big 12 needs a long GOR or P2 prohibitive one. If a GOR friendly to P2 promotion or short GOR is needed to get 6 PAC schools, we should do it. Once the PAC is gone, schools getting poached by P2 doesn’t matter in terms of instability. It may mean less from rights holder, but worth it to get down to a 4 conference setup in which the Big 12 has the best terms for any school of high value outside P2

 

[isucy86]

"A poor man's KU"...in a football only matters expansion..."it would be insane for the Big 12 to pass them up"

Good Lord! we are a desperate conference.

It doesn't matter if they are a poor man's KU or the next Alabama. If the TV Networks value the Wildcats that is all that matters!

Unless the Big12 wants to go down the Pac12's failed past of setting up its own Network. The ONLY GOAL of realignment is to make a NEW BIG12 as attractive as possible to the TV Networks. So the networks and consultants will tell the Big12 who to add.

 

[Stormin]

But does it improve, or at least keep static, the payouts? Otherwise, no thanks.

They are solid additions. I am willing to go along even if they don’t quite pay because they give stability while serving the purpose of weakening the PAC 12 as a rival. Now PAC 12 needs to add 4. And the ones they add are worth far less than the ones we got.

 

[isucy86]

They are solid additions. I am willing to go along even if they don’t quite pay because they give stability while serving the purpose of weakening the PAC 12 as a rival. Now PAC 12 needs to add 4. And the ones they add are worth far less than the ones we got.

The reality is Arizona & Colorado are worth more than bottom end Media Value New Big12 teams. I look at realignment for the Big12 like a professional sport team always trying to improve upon the bottom of its roster.

If the New Big12 is going to make $40M/school/year. I would expect UA & Colorado are middle of the road Pac10 Media Value schools (behind Washington, Oregon, Utah & Arizona State). If UA & CU are each worth around $30M, then that would dilute New Big12 payouts to $38.6M.

I think that dilution is workable for schools, especially if it opens the door to adding Oregon, Washington, Utah or Arizona State.