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I don't think you understand how it works. Wins/losses don't matter as much as points per possession, adjusted for strength of schedule (also preseason rankings, until later in the year when sample sizes are actually meaningful). And it gets computed every day; of course teams that don't play are going to go up and down when other teams move.Or you could go with Kenpom where we slipped down two spots the past few days despite being undefeated and having as solid two wins as anyone in the nation.
Top 15 for sure.
add a few extra votes from the Michigan game that we didn't get because voters had already voted. Then add that not many have a better true road win at this point in the year then we do and a rise of at least 6 spots will a few teams in front of us losing is not hard to fathom.