Purdy's Early Performance

[ClonesFTW]

Read this article from PFF today who didn't really have much good to say about his start to the season, ranking him 73 out out of 75 eligible QB's so far. Game 1 was clearly an outlier so I believe the tides will turn but it does bring up an interesting point about QB regression the last few years. We've seen all 3 QB's regress during their time with the current coaching staff, Lanning did improve but he started with the previous staff. Is it possible we simply get too conservative once we find "our guy" for the season or what else is contributing to this?

Big 12 Film Room: Brock Purdy's regression, Spencer Rattler's promising start and more

PFF examines the Big 12's quarterback play, taking an in-depth look at Iowa State's Brock Purdy, Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler and TCU's Max Duggan.

www.pff.com

Passer Ratings

Purdy:
2018 - 169.9
2019 - 151.1
2020 - 124.2

Kempt:
2017 - 145.9
2018 - 104.6

Park:
2016 - 139.1
2017 - 135.1

 

[srjclone]

 

[Neptune78]

You have to be careful using the 'regression' word on this board in any sentence involving Brock. Many dumb ratings will follow from cardinal colored glass folk. PFF dares to use stats.
Regardless, if/when Brock steps it up a notch big wins will follow down the stretch.

 

[Gunnerclone]

2-0 in conference vs two quality opponents and getting 3rd down conversions. That’s all I care about. Keep on winning BP.

 

[MartyFine]

Read this article from PFF today who didn't really have much good to say about his start to the season, ranking him 73 out out of 75 eligible QB's so far. Game 1 was clearly an outlier so I believe the tides will turn but it does bring up an interesting point about QB regression the last few years. We've seen all 3 QB's regress during their time with the current coaching staff, Lanning did improve but he started with the previous staff. Is it possible we simply get too conservative once we find "our guy" for the season or what else is contributing to this?

Big 12 Film Room: Brock Purdy's regression, Spencer Rattler's promising start and more

PFF examines the Big 12's quarterback play, taking an in-depth look at Iowa State's Brock Purdy, Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler and TCU's Max Duggan.

www.pff.com

Passer Ratings

Purdy:
2018 - 169.9
2019 - 151.1
2020 - 124.2

Kempt:
2017 - 145.9
2018 - 124.2

Park:
2016 - 139.1
2017 - 135.1

We're using kind of small sample sizes to demonstrate "regression" aren't we (2018 with Kempt and 2020 with Purdy)? Let's see what happens over the course of the year if Purdy stays healthy.

Of course losing Lazard and Butler and Ryen and Jones and Pettway over the course of these years can't help anybody...

 

[Clonefan32]

My honest assessment is our WRs aren't getting open. Our offense, both WR and TE, seems to be predicated on big receivers, especially with Milton out. The routes they excel at are slower developing, and our line has not necessarily given him the time to do that. If you go back and watch the games, even the throws he is making are largely into tight windows. We just need to figure out a way to get guys open and Brock will put the ball there.

 

[Land Grant]

I think we are just sensing the truth. He is good but not elite. Lacks the arm, mechanics, vision and discipline of the future NFL-starter tier. He has confidence and daring and in college that will go a long way.

 

[ClonesFTW]

We're using kind of small sample sizes to demonstrate "regression" aren't we (2018 with Kempt and 2020 with Purdy)? Let's see what happens over the course of the year if Purdy stays healthy.

No matter the sample size you've got 2 options to choose from 5 years of data: QB's have improved or regressed, which one would you select?

 

[moores2]

I think we miss Milton big time. Just from 1 play on the field he turns a short 5 yard hook into 30+ yards.

 

[LanningIsBakersDaddy]

Another statistical way to view Purdy's performance this year is through QBR. I know many would argue that QBR is a better indication of how well a QB is playing. It is viewed as more complete. This is what his averages have been:

Avg QBR 2018: 76.7
Avg QBR 2019: 71.2

2020:
QBR vs Louisiana: 24.7
QBR vs TCU: 76.8
QBR vs Oklahoma: 79.0

Obviously the Louisiana game was horrific, but the other two games he has been about where he has been in the past. This is a pretty small sample size and we will definitely know more after a few weeks, I just think Iowa State has been leaning more heavily on the run game.

Based on QBR the best game of his career was against TCU last year at 94.4 and the worst...... Louisiana.

Brock Purdy 2025 Stats per Game - NFL - ESPN

The 2025 NFL season stats per game for Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.

www.espn.com

 

[cmjh10]

That just means we get another season (or 2) of Purdy!

 

[Cyclonepride]

My honest assessment is our WRs aren't getting open. Our offense, both WR and TE, seems to be predicated on big receivers, especially with Milton out. The routes they excel at are slower developing, and our line has not necessarily given him to time to do that. If you go back and watch the games, even the throws he is making are largely into tight windows. We just need to figure out a way to get guys open and Brock will put the ball there.

Yep, getting Milton back would make a world of difference in the options that he has.

 

[Gunnerclone]

I think we are just sensing the truth. He is good but not elite. Lacks the arm, mechanics, vision and discipline of the future NFL-starter tier. He has confidence and daring and in college that will go a long way.

Yep. Really poor man’s Drew Brees but that’s not too shabby.

 

[brentblum]

A couple things to note: QB stats and rating aren't impacted by passer interference or holding calls and Brock's decision making led to 6-7 of those against OU. Also the rating formula is heavily influenced by TD passes. Brock has two, largely because Hall has been so effective inside the 10. I don't think Brock has been as efficient as in years past, but the ratings aren't perfect three games in either IMO.

Also, Iowa State is making a conscious effort to not have Brock free-wheel as much outside of the pocket as he did as a Freshman because the back-up situation is so unknown.

Park had his own issues which have been well documented and Kempt was hurt in the first game of 2018 and wasn't the same. I'm not sure how this can be called a system issue.

 

[CyTwins]

A couple things to note: QB stats and rating aren't impacted by passer interference or holding calls and Brock's decision making led to 6-7 of those against OU. Also the rating formula is heavily influenced by TD passes. Brock has two, largely because Hall has been so effective inside the 10. I don't think Brock has been as efficient as in years past, but the ratings aren't perfect three games in either IMO.

Also, Iowa State is making a conscious effort to not have Brock free-wheel as much outside of the pocket as he did as a Freshman because the back-up situation is so unknown.

Park had his own issues which have been well documented and Kempt was hurt in the first game of 2018 and wasn't the same. I'm not sure how this can be called a system issue.

This

 

[CyTwins]

Read this article from PFF today who didn't really have much good to say about his start to the season, ranking him 73 out out of 75 eligible QB's so far. Game 1 was clearly an outlier so I believe the tides will turn but it does bring up an interesting point about QB regression the last few years. We've seen all 3 QB's regress during their time with the current coaching staff, Lanning did improve but he started with the previous staff. Is it possible we simply get too conservative once we find "our guy" for the season or what else is contributing to this?

Big 12 Film Room: Brock Purdy's regression, Spencer Rattler's promising start and more

PFF examines the Big 12's quarterback play, taking an in-depth look at Iowa State's Brock Purdy, Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler and TCU's Max Duggan.

www.pff.com

Passer Ratings

Purdy:
2018 - 169.9
2019 - 151.1
2020 - 124.2

Kempt:
2017 - 145.9
2018 - 104.6

Park:
2016 - 139.1
2017 - 135.1

Purdy's passer rating will continue to climb. Week one put him in a hole. His QB rating is over 160 in conference play

 

[BryceC]

Good point on Hall. That would make sense since our SP+ Offensive ratings really aren't changed hardly at all from last year, even including Lousiana. Basically the offense is just as good, it's just that Brock isn't throwing as many TD's and Hall is getting a lot of them.

 

[galactawitz]

There are a few things here in my mind. First, the receiver group isn't what it was his first two years. Butler was a complete stud/mismatch that he was able to take advantage of his first year. Jones was a great reliable receiver last year. I'll also argue that though our lines have struggled in the past with the run game, they had protected pretty well in the passing game. To me it looks like that has reversed this year. Throw in no Kolar and some awful drops in that first game, I'm not too concerned. I think Brock is great for ISU, and a great college quarterback. That being said, he isn't a first round DP like some seem to think. Just enjoy the ride while he is here.

 

[jdcyclone19]

We need a better QB coach. Purdy still has difficulty with some QB basics. To me, that's a coaching issue and not all on Purdy.

The ULL has really skewed his stats for this year, they should continue to get better with each game.

 

[Clone5]

My biggest complaint is that Brock has not cleaned up some of the mechanical issues that cause his accuracy problems that pop up occasionally. His decision-making is still suspect at times as well. Hopefully at some point he will start stepping into his throws.