Purdy's Early Performance

[cyclonespiker33]

Looking at passer ratings to say that Purdy regressed from 2018 to 2019 is a pretty big stretch.

Purdy was hurt a good portion of 2019 and still set numerous passing records.

 

[Mtowncyclone13]

Are we comparing stats from years with NFL receivers to this year?

Plus, I don't care if my pitching staff has an ERA of 6 as long as we always score 7.

 

[Aclone]

No matter the sample size you've got 2 options to choose from 5 years of data: QB's have improved or regressed, which one would you select?

Now you earned the “Dumb” rating.

We all know how statistics can lie. How not considering full context leads to invalid conclusions.

This one’s a big’un.

 

[isutrevman]

No matter the sample size you've got 2 options to choose from 5 years of data: QB's have improved or regressed, which one would you select?

Improved. I thought Purdy got a lot better last year than his freshman season. He has not been great this year, but it's been a small sample size so far. Get back to me at the end of the year. In my opinion, this is also by far the worst WR group we've had since maybe Lazard's freshman year. It's even worse with Milton out. Our best WR is a first year JUCO who is still trying to figure things out. After him, who is our best? Akers? Shaw? Obviously the tight ends are phenomenal, but they don't really provide a down field threat. Teams have zero fear of the WR right now, and they are not getting open very often which is giving Purdy problems. MAYBE a guy like Aaron Rodgers or Mahomes could throw those guys open anyway, but Purdy isn't at that level. Think about all the contested catches Lazard and Butler made. Even Jones was good over the middle of the field and could make catches in traffic. The only WR playing right now that can make a catch in traffic is Hutchinson. That's a big problem.

 

[madguy30]

A couple things to note: QB stats and rating aren't impacted by passer interference or holding calls and Brock's decision making led to 6-7 of those against OU. Also the rating formula is heavily influenced by TD passes. Brock has two, largely because Hall has been so effective inside the 10. I don't think Brock has been as efficient as in years past, but the ratings aren't perfect three games in either IMO.

Also, Iowa State is making a conscious effort to not have Brock free-wheel as much outside of the pocket as he did as a Freshman because the back-up situation is so unknown.

Park had his own issues which have been well documented and Kempt was hurt in the first game of 2018 and wasn't the same. I'm not sure how this can be called a system issue.

Yeah that's really the big issue I have with the narrative. Park was just fine but instead of regressing he drove off a cliff vs. UT and that was a 'him' issue.

Purdy's great but has limitations and teams will expose those. He's slippery but not fast, and can throw a good ball but needs apt mechanics.

He's at his best imo when he seems to make just getting the first down a priority. 3rd and 3 doesn't have to make the highlight reel.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

I agree with some of the things in that article, but it was pretty tough to take it seriously after "while those same Cyclones are few lucky bounces away from potentially being 0-3." Seriously, GTFOH with that ****.

In terms of Purdy, he came in slinging passes to NFL receivers and running a bit of a backyard style of football. He's not being asked to put games on his back nearly as much anymore, and his safety valve is now a tight end versus a 6'4" receiver.

The kid is a winner and the first to criticize himself. He'll take wins over stats all day long. And, regarding some of his downfield choices, a deep pass, even if incomplete or into double coverage, gives the defense something else to think about. It's not always about what you do, but what you're capable of doing.

 

[Aclone]

Another statistical way to view Purdy's performance this year is through QBR. I know many would argue that QBR is a better indication of how well a QB is playing.

<snipped>
2020:
QBR vs Louisiana: 24.7
QBR vs TCU: 76.8
QBR vs Oklahoma: 79.0

I’d add to this that Brock is likely to get a substantial bump to his ratings—whatever system you use—in a couple of days. Tech currently has the worst pass defense in the conference. Down the road there are teams that aren’t much better.

Does anyone hold as much as OU?

There are a few things here in my mind. First, the receiver group isn't what it was his first two years. Butler was a complete stud/mismatch that he was able to take advantage of his first year. Jones was a great reliable receiver last year. I'll also argue that though our lines have struggled in the past with the run game, they had protected pretty well in the passing game. To me it looks like that has reversed this year. Throw in no Kolar and some awful drops in that first game, I'm not too concerned.

Well, of the guys you mentioned, they all took off as it became “their” year to shine. A role Tarique was destined to take this year—but he’s been hurt.

Instead, we’ve got a whole bunch of guys working on stepping up in what would have been their developmental, “get their feet wet” or “establish themselves on the field” year. We’ve seen flashes. Some will do that faster than others.

 

[CyTwins]

I agree with some of the things in that article, but it was pretty tough to take it seriously after "while those same Cyclones are few lucky bounces away from potentially being 0-3." Seriously, GTFOH with that ****.

In terms of Purdy, he came in slinging passes to NFL receivers and running a bit of a backyard style of football. He's not being asked to put games on his back nearly as much anymore, and his safety valve is now a tight end versus a 6'4" receiver.

The kid is a winner and the first to criticize himself. He'll take wins over stats all day long. And, regarding some of his downfield choices, a deep pass, even if incomplete or into double coverage, gives the defense something else to think about. It's not always about what you do, but what you're capable of doing.

This. "Could be 0-3" but we were up two scores on TCU the last play of the game lol

 

[MartyFine]

I think the question that maybe we should be asking is can we really recruit the speed necessary to win at ISU? And if not, then aren't we doing it the way we should by trying to recruit bigger guys at TE and on the outside? And also, finally, developing an O-line that can move people with a couple decent backs?

Basically the "Big 10" choice in the Big 12.

 

[ribsnwhiskey]

I think the question that maybe we should be asking is can we really recruit the speed necessary to win at ISU? And if not, then aren't we doing it the way we should by trying to recruit bigger guys at TE and on the outside? And also, finally, developing an O-line that can move people with a couple decent backs?

Basically the "Big 10" choice in the Big 12.

We actually have a lot of speed on both sides of the ball. **** the big 10.

 

[Busch__Latte]

3 games is a bit to quite to be calling his performance a "regression"

 

[theshadow]

A couple things to note: QB stats and rating aren't impacted by passer interference or holding calls and Brock's decision making led to 6-7 of those against OU. Also the rating formula is heavily influenced by TD passes.

It would be an interesting exercise to see how many incompletions have been the result of drops, strips, and pressured throwaways -- all of which count against the QB, but not the receivers or OL.

 

[bozclone]

I thought Purdy played well against OU. Not a great stats day, but his decisions were good and he did what we needed him to do to win. Charlie doesn't look 100% yet but is getting there and Purdy is starting to build some chemistry with Xavier. Stats are going to improve.

 

[DSMCy]

Sorry to derail, but I saw Dekkers and Bowman for the first time last Saturday, warming up and on the sideline.
Man those guys are huge. They've got the look of big time QBs. Hopefully the talent is there, and by all accounts so far it is.

 

[LanningIsBakersDaddy]

I’d add to this that Brock is likely to get a substantial bump to his ratings—whatever system you use—in a couple of days. Tech currently has the worst pass defense in the conference. Down the road there are teams that aren’t much better.

Does anyone hold as much as OU?


Well, of the guys you mentioned, they all took off as it became “their” year to shine. A role Tarique was destined to take this year—but he’s been hurt.

Instead, we’ve got a whole bunch of guys working on stepping up in what would have been their developmental, “get their feet wet” or “establish themselves on the field” year. We’ve seen flashes. Some will do that faster than others.

I agree, although they also have a pretty rough rushing defense so I am sure Iowa State will be trying to run the ball quite a bit. I generally think his rating are being drug down by one pretty rough game. Also I pulled the stats from ESPN:

Brock Purdy 2025 Stats per Game - NFL - ESPN

The 2025 NFL season stats per game for Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers on ESPN. Includes full stats, per opponent, for regular and postseason.

www.espn.com

 

[CycloneVet]

Holy ****, the kid just helped lead us to a win for the first time in 50 years against a fired up OU at home. He is 2-0 in the conference so far. GTFO with this ********. He will get better against some of the ****** defenses in this conference. FFS TCU has a good defense and we technically beat them by 2 scores. OU is full of 4-5 star talent and was motivated last week. That usually spells a beat down for us. JFC appreciate what we currently have and STFU

 

[ClonesFTW]

Now you earned the “Dumb” rating.

We all know how statistics can lie. How not considering full context leads to invalid conclusions.

This one’s a big’un.

Oh no, not the dumb rating! God forbid someone bring up a topic in hopes of legitimate discussion on this board.

 

[ClonesFTW]

Holy ****, the kid just helped lead us to a win for the first time in 50 years against a fired up OU at home. He is 2-0 in the conference so far. GTFO with this ********. He will get better against some of the ****** defenses in this conference. FFS TCU has a good defense and we technically beat them by 2 scores. OU is full of 4-5 star talent and was motivated last week. That usually spells a beat down for us. JFC appreciate what we currently have and STFU

I brought the article to our board to discuss because I saw it elsewhere, it's clear people like you are not very good at handling outside/differing opinions. Nobody in this whole thread said he wasn't going to improve this season, calm down.

 

[intrepid27]

Sincere question. Does a play that results in Defensive pass interference count an an incompletion?
If so, there were probably 4 or 5 of them against OU.

 

[Cydkar]

Sincere question. Does a play that results in Defensive pass interference count an an incompletion?
If so, there were probably 4 or 5 of them against OU.

no