Positive *Informative* Covid News

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The bottom is being paid not to work. It's why you see help wanted signs.

There is some indication this might be the case.

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Peak job openings before this hit was around 7.5 million.

That dropped to around 5.0 million but is now back up to around 5.9 million.

Either way, there is job availability (at least in a straight reading of this chart, more on that in a moment) out there at the moment compared to the 2001 recession and the Great Recession last decade.

Complicating factors --

(1.) The "cost" of posting a job (e.g., just throwing it out there on an online job board or two) is lower than ever, which might mean companies have postings up but are less serious about actually using them to fill positions than they were in the past when the job search process was more complex and more difficult.

This would make data in this series over the long-term incomparable, though this would not be a short-term problem.

(2.) So 5.9 million openings out there... but what are the nature of those jobs? Are those generally more high-paying jobs for educated, skilled, and experienced workers and the problem is one of labor supply? That is, we just do not have enough people qualified for them? Or are they cruddy "McJobs" that nobody really wants and, as you said, now that people are being paid to stay home, they are just not taking them because of neetbux and vidya?

(3.) I have no doubt there is some effect of the "stay at home" unemployment payments reducing people's incentives to get off their hindquarters and lock down a job. How strong that effect is we can debate. However, one might argue that this is a feature and not a bug at the current moment. We want as much social distancing and as much to control the spread of the virus as we can, so paying people not to work is one way to do that.

Again, we can debate if that is an efficient or effective way to do it, but that was at least the thought behind it.
 
Interesting prediction from a former Nobel Prize winner.


Excess death is something that doesn't get looked at enough. It mostly spiked in the US when NY and NJ had their outbreak. Been pretty close to baseline lately, and government response to Covid-19 has effected death rates both positive and negative having little to do with Covid-19. Examples would be suicide deaths, OD's and traffic accidents. I think accidents are probably the only positive effect on non covid deaths from shut downs. Excess death rate can get rid of the, "was a death really a covid death" argument. Its hard not to question the data when one category of prior condition according to the CDC is "Intentional and unintentional death, poisonings, and other adverse advents" (from memory so may not be exact wording) Small numbers, under 6000 total, but obviously no effort was mad to ascertain if a death really should be categorized covid caused if you count suicides and accidents if covid was mentioned anywhere in the death certificate.
 
The bottom is being paid not to work. Its why you see help wanted signs

Yes there are a lot of help wanted signs. But most are for high risk (Covid risk) and low paying jobs. You're not seeing the same need in office jobs with decent pay.

So I guess what's the solution? Should people be putting themselves at risk for $12.00 an hour? All while you have people going out of their way to bypass mask requirements to make a statement which further outs these people at risk.

Just seems like an easy argument to make for those working outside the service industry to complain about the unemployment benefits.
 
Yes there are a lot of help wanted signs. But most are for high risk (Covid risk) and low paying jobs. You're not seeing the same need in office jobs with decent pay.

So I guess what's the solution? Should people be putting themselves at risk for $12.00 an hour? All while you have people going out of their way to bypass mask requirements to make a statement which further outs these people at risk.

Just seems like an easy argument to make for those working outside the service industry to complain about the unemployment benefits.

But refer to my chart again --

https://cyclonefanatic.com/forum/threads/positive-covid-news.257579/page-4#post-7276225

Jobs paying over $32 per hour (so basically the high-paying office jobs you mentioned there) are up since the whole COVID thing began while low-wage, high-risk McJobs are significantly down.
 
But refer to my chart again --

https://cyclonefanatic.com/forum/threads/positive-covid-news.257579/page-4#post-7276225

Jobs paying over $32 per hour (so basically the high-paying office jobs you mentioned there) are up since the whole COVID thing began while low-wage, high-risk McJobs are significantly down.

Your chart is showing employment though. I guess my takeaway is that those well paying jobs were of folks that we're laid off temporarily and are back to work at home or in the office. The low paying employment numbers are still lagging. The question is whether those jobs are available and people just aren't taking them, or if they're not available. Judging by the number of help wanted signs I see, I'd say that people do not want to take them right now. Personally, I wouldn't want any part of food service or cashier right now. Being in contact with that many people and the number that just ignore mitigation efforts in the name of freedom puts you at too much risk to justify the wages they're offering.
 
Your chart is showing employment though. I guess my takeaway is that those well paying jobs were of folks that we're laid off temporarily and are back to work at home or in the office. The low paying employment numbers are still lagging. The question is whether those jobs are available and people just aren't taking them, or if they're not available. Judging by the number of help wanted signs I see, I'd say that people do not want to take them right now. Personally, I wouldn't want any part of food service or cashier right now. Being in contact with that many people and the number that just ignore mitigation efforts in the name of freedom puts you at too much risk to justify the wages they're offering.

I generally agree with you about high-wage workers.

Their sectors (e.g., the more technologically advanced types of manufacturing, information/tech, finance, education, healthcare, professional services, and etc.) have not had as much of an upset to their lines of business, so they have not been very likely to lay off. Plus, many of those sectors have transitioned to work-from-home to varying degrees of smoothness (very smooth for my software development/service firm, maybe not for education). That is so much the case that some of them might never come back to the office in the same way as before, but we have threads for that.

With low-income workers, I think it is probably a bit of both.

The low-wage sectors with the most jobs... retail, food service, accommodations... were and are getting hammered by this thing. Quarantines and social distancing are still in place in most states in some form, people are voluntarily choosing not to travel, businesses have adapted to a world of less business travel and fewer conferences as "the new normal" with the Microsoft Teams meeting taking over, and even high-income households are economizing their spending in response to the downturn. The easiest thing to cut are shopping, vacations, and travel on the margin of a household budget.

So there has been some decrease in job availability for those folks (see my JOLTS chart about showing we lost a few million job openings when this all started up). But you are also right the "math" for them... risk infection for a piddly hourly wage when you can sit at home and collect bux from the government... is in force. Plus, given jobs went from relatively plentiful in January to still out there but harder to find now, going through the trouble of looking for a hard-to-land job given your expect wage and COVID risk... many are just not bothering about it and looking, which you pointed out.

I just do not see the two points as incompatible. It can be both jobs availability is down (and it is) and people are making a reasonable and rational decision just to stay away given the risks and rewards.
 
Busy good news day, new USA infections slow to the lowest level in two months. Downward trend continues!

 
Busy good news day, new USA infections slow to the lowest level in two months. Downward trend continues!


Wonder how low the death totals/7 day averages will follow since .
 
Busy good news day, new USA infections slow to the lowest level in two months. Downward trend continues!


Hope people don't see this as a sign to relax their efforts to stay away from people and wear a mask.
 
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Good to hear that a potential vaccine is close. I just hope the federal government doesn’t get in the way of distribution like they did in the early days of the pandemic.
I'm guessing getting the vaccine to 330 millions people is going to take a while. Probably months. Iowa alone would be about 35,000 vaccinations per day for 3 months to get everybody. Are there enough doctors/nurses to administer that? Keeping in mind that most doctors are already overworked without dealing with those vaccinations.
 
I'm guessing getting the vaccine to 330 millions people is going to take a while. Probably months. Iowa alone would be about 35,000 vaccinations per day for 3 months to get everybody. Are there enough doctors/nurses to administer that? Keeping in mind that most doctors are already overworked without dealing with those vaccinations.


If the paperwork doesn't get in the way, I would think a 100-150 a day is doable by a nurse. Of course that is not factoring in other work they currently have.

EDIT: I know crews that can vaccinate 4000 hogs in 2-3 hours in a four person crew. That is roughly 400 an hour. Get me a dozen repeater syringes and I can find crews to hammer those out for Iowa.
 
I'm guessing getting the vaccine to 330 millions people is going to take a while. Probably months. Iowa alone would be about 35,000 vaccinations per day for 3 months to get everybody. Are there enough doctors/nurses to administer that? Keeping in mind that most doctors are already overworked without dealing with those vaccinations.

There's also been articles about some of the vaccine candidates requiring special handling and really low temps for storage. So it may be that you won't be able to administer these everywhere like done for flu shots.

Don't know if that precludes drive through options if they could be set up for cities at least.
 
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There's also been articles about some of the vaccine candidates requiring special handling and really low temps for storage. So it may be that you won't be able to administer these everywhere like done for flu shots.

Don't know if that precludes drive through options if they could be set up for cities at least.


They have the same things for animal care. I have vet friend that I've done errands for. You just use electric coolers and have a power source to keep them going. It's not too difficult to make sure temps are held.
 
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Agreed, and it seems from that article a lot better than nothing.

"An uncovered cough, in contrast, can travel up to 3 meters, but even a simple disposable mask can bring this all the way down to 0.5 meters."

But does stopping droplets do anything to stop a virus? That is the real question none of these recent studies do anything to answer.
 
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