Onto KU!
- Thread starter GoSTATE71
- Start date
Whether or not that's the case, it's simply a bad spot for them. The odds of winning nine straight in a P4 conference are...not good. They have one good road win against a short-handed Tech team that blew a lead. Iowa State hasn't shot the ball well for almost two weeks. If I'm a professional bettor I'm not necessarily looking at any individual matchup, so if I'm looking at "matchup" at all the results are inconclusive, because Iowa State did just about everything horribly in Lawrence. It'd be one thing if most of the team stats had been fairly even—Iowa State had shot their season average, not turned it over, and still lost.
All that to say, I'm certainly not confident. Peterson is unguardable, and Bidunga presents problems. But it took me many years to finally see how so many college games really come down to "spots," unless one team is substantially better than the other. And none of the analytics suggest there's a gap between these teams
What about Kansas makes them a bad matchup for us specifically? Not doubting, just wondering.
Chance has no memory. The odds of winning 9 straight before the streak starts are low, the odds of winning 9 straight when you have already won 8 are the same as the odds of just winning the next one.
Fair enough, I thought of that while typing. But Vegas is telling you Kansas doesn't have a great chance even in just this one. My point was more that even if nine games ago one had predicted an eight-game winning streak, a rational person would've said, "Whew, that Iowa State game will still be tough."
Well either that or we’re just starting to regress to the mean, in which case, hold on to your butts.
+5.5 on the road with Kansas' all american questionable. I don't think Vegas is saying they don't have a great chance, I think they are saying there is a lot of uncertainty here.
Okay, so call it a coin flip game, say you think Kansas should be favored, I don't give a rip. The comment I replied to was implying that Iowa State limping into the game while Kansas is rolling will likely spell an Iowa State loss, which I think is misguided. It's how fans would handicap games—I would know as I feel similarly all the time. But I don't think it's predictive analysis. The only impact Iowa State's recent performance has on the spread is that its offensive efficiency has taken a hit. But computers don't much care if you win narrowly or even lose. If Kansas were on this winning streak but mostly staying put in the metrics they'd be bigger dogs
And since this has become more of a thing than I intended I'll just call my shot. Either Iowa State will cover by a few points or Kansas will win by double digits, so I don't think this spread will matter
It barely bothered you? We had to watch that highlight of the coach with his legs up in the air for the next 15 years. That was an all-time embarrassment nationally. At that time, 15 over a 2 almost never happened. Luckily it's become more common and we've had a 16 over a 1 to get that clip off of the annual montages.
Bidunga's length, athleticism, and rim protection are huge problems for our bigs. Jefferson relies on angles and strength inside, but he plays below the rim. Budinga doesn't have to gamble or risk fouling against Jefferson. He can just protect the rim and bother/block Jefferson's shot. Buchanan isn't an offensive threat, and KU has the bodies to bang with him. Budinga and Tiller are my main concerns.
We couldn't keep their guards out of the paint in Lawrence. They were bigger and much quicker than our guards.
KU is long, athletic, and physical, which are the exact teams we always struggle with because those are teams that are able to bother Lipsey and Momcilovic.
I think the hope is that we come out as the more physical team, force some turnovers or bad shots by KU, and capitalize in transition. It would also be nice if KU missed some threes, which didn't happen in Lawrence.
I'd add that the hope is also that the Zebras don't call a ticky-tack game. If they do, I can't see this as hurting KU as much as us.
I'm going to sound like CW here, but I think unbalanced scheduling has already warped our assessments of the league. Sure, Kansas may win, in which case I just think they're a very good team who can win in a lot of different ways. When given two cracks at it, the only team Otz hasn't been able to split with—and fairly easily at that—has been run 'n gun BYU. So who's truly a bad matchup? I know my answer
Just saying I got Influenza A this year and it absolutely destroyed me for like 8 days
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
Whatever your thoughts, the people who are paid well to assess these things think that our Cyclones are the 7th most likely to claim the title.
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
I've been sick and slowed down this week, but one thing never changes. Kansas must be destroyed.
I was at the MSU game. After the loss, I was sick because I knew it was such a missed opportunity. It is so hard for schools like Iowa State to make the Final Four.
