***Official USMNT Thread***
- Thread starter ianoconnor
- Start date
My bad, you are correct. Its not done - the turn around after the Mexico match will be interesting to see how the team responds BUT...
I feel pretty good about our chances but its still a tad bit early to celebrate. That said - what a freaking incredible run by Reyna. That kid is special and we probably should have won and that's without McKennie, Arronson off the bench whose a big part of what we have done and Dest - it feels like this is a team that has the potential to get us a WC at some point in time in their tenure
I feel pretty good about our chances but its still a tad bit early to celebrate. That said - what a freaking incredible run by Reyna. That kid is special and we probably should have won and that's without McKennie, Arronson off the bench whose a big part of what we have done and Dest - it feels like this is a team that has the potential to get us a WC at some point in time in their tenure
Definitely hoping for a favorable group and also the x-factor of a winter WC.
I don't understand how us beating Panama doesn't essentially guarantee top 3 based on goal differential, even if Costa Rica wins out. We're on 22 points, so if we win we will be at 25 (and Panama will be out). If Costa Rica wins their final two games they will be tied with us at 25 points. We are currently +9 and CR is +2, so they would need to make up at least 8 goals (since this scenario has us beating Panama by at least 1 goal) in two games. They have only scored 9 goals in all of qualifying so far, so it seems very unlikely that they could go +8 at El Salvador and against us.
This is also all assuming that Mexico will get at least 4 points out of their final two matches, which would put them in 2nd in the above scenario. If they only get 3 they will also be at 25 points and it would come down to goal differential, where we are currently +3 vs Mexico.
Because there is the chance - albeit unlikely - of them wining 5-0 in both games.
You are correct that winning over Panama likely - 99.9% guarantees us a top 3 spot, its just in the incredibly unlikely scenario where Costa Rica goes on an incredible scoring barrage - which as you say, is highly improbable, but given the world we all live in - anything seems possible anymore lol.
A win over Panama all but guarantees it though, you are correct. There's just that tiny random event that might change it , however unlikely
It seems to me that we are pretty much guaranteed a top 3 finish if we win either of the remaining matches OR draw both of them. If we draw both we would finish at 24 points, and the maximum Panama or Costa Rica could finish with in that scenario is 22 or 23, respectively.
Beating Panama at home is clearly the easiest way to get this done, as getting a win at CR is not likely. But if we only manage a draw against Panama we would still only need a draw at CR to be in the top 3.
Beating Panama at home is clearly the easiest way to get this done, as getting a win at CR is not likely. But if we only manage a draw against Panama we would still only need a draw at CR to be in the top 3.
Yep. Although to be fair, my thoughts on winning at Costa Rica have increased after drawing at a mostly full strength Mexico squad without arguably our best player from qualifying so far and also having a very limited Reyna.
I'm not sure whever everyone plays moving forward presuming we are healthy but that's a good problem to have.
If US/CR both win 1-0 on Sunday for example the GD would be 7. That means CR would have to beat us by 4 to get 3rd. Like you mentioned above a win or draw vs Panama Sunday will guarantee 4th place.
Flying out tomorrow for Orlando, should be a crazy atmosphere.
How do they draw if there are still a couple games let to be played in June for final spots?
Seems like they could just put "winner of x region" or something?
There are 4 pots of 8 where one team is picked from each pot to fill out the groups. The play-in teams are all put in pot 4.
The pots are filled using the FIFA world rankings. The one exception is the host (Qatar) gets put in pot 1, so the 7 highest fifa teams (that qualified, lol Italy) fill out the rest of pot 1.
Edit: I forgot about all the qualifiers for the selections after pot 1, so pots 2-4 bounce around a bit to avoid putting conference teams together
Last edited:
What's the rush? The children from the local elementary school haven't re-enacted every goal from every World Cup match yet.
Why are you watching the draw? There is plenty of time to analyze the results after it and the draw ceremony means literally nothing.
