Technically there has to be spots for almost everyone in there -- they came from a team to start with. They had to have been on a team already to now be in the portal. Not all expected to reach D1, surely.The post specifically said football players. And it means exactly what he’s getting at. There will be several thousand players who at best have to drop down and many will be out of football.
The portal includes all levels of football, so obviously not all of them will go to D1. A more interesting data point would be just D1 transfers still open compared to spots still open, i.e. rate at which D1 players are falling downwards.

