Before we get to the football discussion, let's begin things with a little conversation about conference realignment. In talking with sources this week, it might be time to get your popcorn ready, but perhaps not for the reasons everyone might have anticipated coming out of Big 12 Media Days when expansion talk was white hot.
1. Don't be shocked if Big 12 commish Bob Bowlsby finds himself on the hot seat in the coming months because the entire thing has turned into a huge mess when you consider the television networks are threatening litigation, the schools inside the conference all have their own agendas/favorites and the politics surrounding all of it has created a tricky terrain full of landmines.
2. One of the landmines is definitely the relationships between TV partners and I was told this week that ESPN is as far away from being a willing partner to the attempted money grab as it can be. In no uncertain terms, I've been told that not only has ESPN notified the conference that there are zero combination of additions that are attractive from the perspective of the network, but it is willing to take this to court if that is what is needed.
3. There is absolutely no consensus when it comes to potential new schools and multiple sources mentioned this week that there's not a school that's being considered that has the eight votes needed. For instance, for all of the discussion about adding Houston, I'm told there is a block of non-Texas Big 12 members that view the addition of the Cougars as an absolute non-starter. "It ain't happening," one Big 12 source said on Wednesday.
4. One high-level Texas source told me on Thursday that he doesn't believe there will be any expansion at all when the dust clears.
5. Out of curiosity, I asked the same source which conference the Longhorns would end up in if the Big 12 dies at the end of the current Grant of Rights agreement and the source said the Big 10 because of the academic profiles that many of the schools bring to the table, although the source also mentioned that Texas would likely have a chance to join in of the other four power conferences if it wanted to.
5. I mentioned my own personal Pac-12 preference and was told that it is a league that has some internal conflict at the moment, as the Pac-12 Network hasn't been a roaring success and schools like Arizona and Colorado are being described as unhappy with the current state of things.
6. Finally, if the Big 12 does collapse in the coming years, I was told we'll likely know about it before the current GOR expires. "I don't think it will take that long," one high-level source told me.
Unfortunately none of this is surprising, and it all makes a lot of sense. The most likely outcome IMO is still that the Big 12 does not expand and then Texas and Oklahoma begin to openly court other conferences.
If memory serves, 8 conference members can blow up the GOR by leaving together so I could see them working out some sort of package to make that happen - for example, Texas and Kansas going to the B1G, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to the SEC, West Virginia to the ACC (along with UConn) and then Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and TCU to the new Pac-16. In the world's most appropriate finish to this story, Baylor is the one school left holding the bag and ends up taking UConn's spot in the American.