***Official 2024 Weather Thread***
- Thread starter wxman1
- Start date
0.5" wouldn't be a nuisance. If we were to receive enough rain in the next 10 days to take us out of "drought" status we would be in trouble. It would take many weeks of regular rains to effectively reverse the issues we have. 8" of rain in a week would look good on paper but very little would make it to the subsoil.
GFS on Skip Talbot's models for the last few days have been painting a bullseye on Iowa for precip be it rain or snow. Seems the NWS in their discussions are picking up on that. Interesting to see if any of this comes to fruition. Even Weatherstreet is agreeing and some of the totals are quite substantial.
Sorry if it came across as cynical, but it gets tiring to hear of "ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS!" and "Some people could pick up..." over and over and then under-perform the forecast every time.
Right, I keep telling my wife that .5" is in many ways better than 8". I just can't get her to understand though.
No problem. You are correct, and the reason I didn't post anything a few days ago when weatherstreet was putting almost 3 feet of snow from western into southern Iowa. While the totals have gone down some, and have moved from model to model.....they seem fairly certain something significant is going to happen in and around Iowa the first of next week. Even the NWS in Des Moines has picked up on it.
Of course now watch.........it will be sunny and in the 70's.
Husband moved the snowblower from the shed to the garage and put the snow stakes back up this morning.
Regarding the weekend into next week from DVN NWS
"Saturday through Monday...Current ensemble trends suggest there will be Saturday a lull day in between systems, while some type of longer wave troughing and rounding upper jet energy organize upstream
acrs the western CONUS and then emerges into the Plains early Sunday into Monday. As there are long range signs of a mild moist conveyor streaming northward off the western Gulf to the lee of this trof complex, precip chances may really ramp up from late Sat night or Sunday into early next week although the last model runs have slowed this system down slightly. But with the spread between model solutions and ensembles, there is very low confidence in QPF amounts, placements, timing and types of precipitation at this juncture in the game. The one consistent signal is that there may be a significant storm system traversing the Plains and into the Upper Midwest this weekend into early next week."
"Saturday through Monday...Current ensemble trends suggest there will be Saturday a lull day in between systems, while some type of longer wave troughing and rounding upper jet energy organize upstream
acrs the western CONUS and then emerges into the Plains early Sunday into Monday. As there are long range signs of a mild moist conveyor streaming northward off the western Gulf to the lee of this trof complex, precip chances may really ramp up from late Sat night or Sunday into early next week although the last model runs have slowed this system down slightly. But with the spread between model solutions and ensembles, there is very low confidence in QPF amounts, placements, timing and types of precipitation at this juncture in the game. The one consistent signal is that there may be a significant storm system traversing the Plains and into the Upper Midwest this weekend into early next week."
I'm going to assume you are in Minnesota, Wisconsin or North Dakota. Tell me I'm right.
