KU was the number 1 team in 2020 as well. But NIL Era KU has a championship. The last two years really aren't about NIL for KU. The prior year Self had his heart issue before the tournament and they were literally a number one seed and won the Big 12. I think they get past Arkansas but likely lose to UCONN who is basically a new blue blood. This year they took a hit on scholarships to get their penalty out of the way and then missed on a two top transfers they got with NIL money in Morris and Timberlake, one ended up being a rapist and the other just sucked. Then McCullar got hurt part way through the big 12 season. Oh and their McDAA guard Jackson didn't work out. That has nothing to do with NIL. And they weren't winning championships at a high rate before. But they are always near the top and still will be.
Blue Bloods never win championships every year but in general teams like UNC, Kansas, Duke, Kentucky and other programs like MSU, UCONN, etc. are always going to be good.
Duke and Kentucky's issues have been that they have gone all in on 5 star freshman and that means there can be years where if those guys don't work out they just won't be as good and might miss the tournament. UNC won the ACC this year and was a top ten team based in large part on their success in the portal in landing Ingram and Ryan. And they were in the Final Four two years ago. Actually those teams did miss the tournament previously. UNC missed in the 2009-2010 season. Kentucky missed in 12-13.