***Official 2024 Chicago Cubs Thread***

Cyforce

Well-Known Member
Nov 24, 2009
16,871
12,814
113
Des Moines
I could see the above lineup if Hoerner is not a Cub or still dinged when the season opens.

But if the Cubs hope to get full value for Hoerner at the trade deadline, I feel he has to start at 2B and fill in for Swanson at SS.

What role does that leave for Shaw? Play 2nd when Hoerner & Swanson sit. Maybe Shaw plays 3rd when Bregman sits. I am hopeful Counsell takes a load management approach with Hoerner, Swanson & Bregman. Don't play them in the field once a week- that would still be around 136 position starts during the season. They can always get bats at DH if they are on fire with the stick.

IMO that could mean 2-3 starts a week for Shaw, playing around 60-70 games a season and get Shaw 250+ at bats his rookie year, even if Hoerner doesn't get traded. That seems like a low pressure way to bring Shaw along.
Shaw might get a month at 2nd to start the season then he’s super utility (2nd, 3rd and short sorta) until they trade Hoerner. I’d say he’ll get 400+ ABs if he’s the everyday 2B second half.

Wonder if signing Bergman puts Cowles on the block?
 

isucy86

Well-Known Member
Apr 13, 2006
8,792
7,317
113
Dubuque
Shaw might get a month at 2nd to start the season then he’s super utility (2nd, 3rd and short sorta) until they trade Hoerner. I’d say he’ll get 400+ ABs if he’s the everyday 2B second half.

Wonder if signing Bergman puts Cowles on the block?

They could replace an IF for an IF (Bregman) on the 40 man and maybe among Berti, Brujan and Cowles there is some trade value as spring training progresses. But they also have 24 pitchers on the 40 man, they could make a move from there as well.

But with waiving Wisdom & Mastrobuoni, would the Cubs again keep 2 utility guys for 2025- Shaw plus 1. And maybe plus 2 if Hoerner is limited early on to 2nd base only or DH only. I haven't seen anything on Hoerners flexor injury if he will be ready to bat earlier than field or both aspects will come along at the rate.

Workman is the guy I am curious about. He's limited since he's a rule 5 guy. But of all the infield guys the Cubs picked up over the winter, he's the one guy who has some HR pop in his bat. And if the Cubs sign Bregman the utility guys the Cubs keep aren't needed for late inning defense, keeping a power hitting utility IF/pinch hitter would be nice.
 

cycloneman003

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Jan 14, 2008
4,771
3,195
113
Madison, WI
Hard to imagine them not moving salary if a Bregman deal gets done. I do think it’s only a marginal upgrade to add Bregman if you have to ship out Hoerner. I’d almost rather find a home for Taillon, but I get that we also have to find ABs for Shaw and if you’ve got Hoerner/Swanson/Bregman that’s a little more tricky.
 

CYdTracked

Well-Known Member
Mar 23, 2006
18,171
8,924
113
Grimes, IA
I still am not sold that the Cubs will actually sign Bregman but the longer he is out there I like the chances he could sign a short deal with options that the Cubs could make work. I know some say if they sign Bregman then they have no shot at resigning Tucker but I don't really see that as being exclusive. Even if they don't sign Bregman I think it's probably a long shot Tucker resigns given the type of $ and years it will likely take. The Cubs just haven't shown interest in those types of contracts to make me think there is a real chance they change course on that philosophy. So if Tucker leaves after this season with Bregman he likely would get some kind of deal with opt outs like Bellinger so if he has a good season he likely opts out and the Cubs still have flexibility on what they do with free agency and payroll. Or if he opts in at least you retain 1 of the 2 and he likely is still a pretty productive player unless he just falls off a cliff this season.

This was the concern with signing Matt Chapman who is the same age as Bregman and all he did last year was put up a 7.1 WAR and win a gold glove and sign a 6 year extension for about 25 mil a year. On a short deal with opt outs I think Bregman is worth the risk. I keep going back to the Tucker trade that you don't trade for a guy like that on a 1 year deal and not try to build a competitive roster with the short window you have with him. Bregman would be the type of player that raises the win ceiling for this team and there is still enough roster flexibility and assets to make some moves to improve through trades.
 

RivClone23

Active Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Nov 23, 2007
216
76
28
40
West Des Moines
Career OPS .718 v. .848 seems more than marginal
They definitely produce value differently. While Bregman is a good, gold glove winning 3rd baseman he is not as valuable defensively as Nico.

That said, I would take Bregman/Shaw over Nico/Shaw in a vacuum.

Is Bregmans best behind him? Probably. But he's still good enough and would make the Cubs better.
 

cycloneman003

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Jan 14, 2008
4,771
3,195
113
Madison, WI
Career OPS .718 v. .848 seems more than marginal
That's not really the comparison at all though is it? They play different positions, Nico is better defender (Bregman is very good too) and elite on the basepaths. Last three season Bregman has been a 13.6 WAR player, Nico has been 13.0 WAR.

I'm still all about adding Bregman, but Nico is a good player in his own right that is on a contract that is definitely below his market value. So I'm comparing Bregman/Shaw at $30MM+/year vs. Nico/Shaw at $12MM+/year. I still say add Bregman because the bat is needed, but I'd almost rather hold on to Nico and try and sort the ABs out for Shaw around the infield if you could move a Taillon instead.
 

CyState85

Well-Known Member
May 8, 2019
948
1,341
93
I like Hoerner for his SB potential. A lineup with PCA, Hoerner, and Shaw gives you some pretty good speed on the bases.
 

Cyforce

Well-Known Member
Nov 24, 2009
16,871
12,814
113
Des Moines
That's not really the comparison at all though is it? They play different positions, Nico is better defender (Bregman is very good too) and elite on the basepaths. Last three season Bregman has been a 13.6 WAR player, Nico has been 13.0 WAR.

I'm still all about adding Bregman, but Nico is a good player in his own right that is on a contract that is definitely below his market value. So I'm comparing Bregman/Shaw at $30MM+/year vs. Nico/Shaw at $12MM+/year. I still say add Bregman because the bat is needed, but I'd almost rather hold on to Nico and try and sort the ABs out for Shaw around the infield if you could move a Taillon instead.
Bergman is an upgrade in every facet over Paredes. Shaw will be a much better offensive player than Hoerner. Plus Shaw will play a solid 2nd.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: RagingCloner

cycloneman003

Well-Known Member
SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
Jan 14, 2008
4,771
3,195
113
Madison, WI
Bergman is an upgrade in every facet over Paredes. Shaw will be a much better offensive player than Hoerner. Plus Shaw will play a solid 2nd.
Not sure what Paredes has to do with this conversation.

Shaw could be great, but he's still not yet been in the majors. Not a guarantee to go great immediately. For what it's worth, ZiPs projections for Shaw this year are .247/.320/.721 and for Nico .275/.335/.720.

All I'm saying is that Nico is still a very valuable player on a cheap deal. That has to play a big role in what you ultimately are willing to pay to bring Bregman in IF you know you have to deal Nico to make it work.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HoustonClone

Cyforce

Well-Known Member
Nov 24, 2009
16,871
12,814
113
Des Moines
Not sure what Paredes has to do with this conversation.

Shaw could be great, but he's still not yet been in the majors. Not a guarantee to go great immediately. For what it's worth, ZiPs projections for Shaw this year are .247/.320/.721 and for Nico .275/.335/.720.

All I'm saying is that Nico is still a very valuable player on a cheap deal. That has to play a big role in what you ultimately are willing to pay to bring Bregman in IF you know you have to deal Nico to make it work.
Paredes is the guy Bergman replaces,

Would you rather we don’t add a big bat in the middle of the order? .721 v. .720 at a tenth of the price. Even as a rookie i bet Shaw is closer to .800 than .721. Long term Shaw is the smarter play.

Hopefully dealing Horrner and Taillon gets you the of the top of the rotation righty they seek or the prospects needed to get it and some room to maneuver at the deadline.
 

CYdTracked

Well-Known Member
Mar 23, 2006
18,171
8,924
113
Grimes, IA
Paredes is the guy Bergman replaces,

Would you rather we don’t add a big bat in the middle of the order? .721 v. .720 at a tenth of the price. Even as a rookie i bet Shaw is closer to .800 than .721. Long term Shaw is the smarter play.

Hopefully dealing Horrner and Taillon gets you the of the top of the rotation righty they seek or the prospects needed to get it and some room to maneuver at the deadline.

Shaw has not had a single MLB AB yet so while I am optimistic he could be the long term solution at 3B we've also seen a lot of prospects not live up to the hype over the years too once they got a shot at the big leagues. If they have a realistic shot at signing Bregman for a deal that doesn't hurt them long term I would rather go with a proven MLB player than gamble with an unproven rookie given what is at stake this season. Even with Bregman if Shaw proves to be the real deal then they will be forced to make a move to get him AB in Chicago. I think they probably won't sign Bregman but would be thrilled if they do. My concern is what if they give Shaw every opportunity to be the every day 3B and he struggles to hit and they are forced to send him back to Iowa to work it out. That makes Berti the 3B and he's 34 and his best season was on a crappy 2023 Marlins team where he hi 7 HR and 33 RBI for career highs. Not exactly the type of production you want from 3B, hell Patrick Wisdom even with his strikeouts could top that with a hot streak and I loathed him.
 

CYdTracked

Well-Known Member
Mar 23, 2006
18,171
8,924
113
Grimes, IA
This is an interesting read. https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs...ago-cubs-excessively-crowded-bullpen-picture/

So if there are 8 bullpen arms and Pressly Braisiere Miller and Thielbar are 4 of them, you assume that Hodge Morgan and likely Pearson will take 3 of the 4 who do you think gets that last spot? I think that unless Merryweather and Thompson just look lights out in spring training they trade or cut them as they are out of options so that leaves a pool of optional guys that could be starters or swing guys or one of the up/down relievers that earns that last spot.
 

BigJCy

Well-Known Member
Apr 11, 2006
23,522
20,409
113
So is Bregman going to play this out for another week or two or what?
 

ISUCubswin

Well-Known Member
Mar 3, 2011
24,135
6,975
113
My Playhouse
This is an interesting read. https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs...ago-cubs-excessively-crowded-bullpen-picture/

So if there are 8 bullpen arms and Pressly Braisiere Miller and Thielbar are 4 of them, you assume that Hodge Morgan and likely Pearson will take 3 of the 4 who do you think gets that last spot? I think that unless Merryweather and Thompson just look lights out in spring training they trade or cut them as they are out of options so that leaves a pool of optional guys that could be starters or swing guys or one of the up/down relievers that earns that last spot.
I’m starting to think Pearson, who has an option left, might start in Iowa to work on becoming a SP.
 

Cyforce

Well-Known Member
Nov 24, 2009
16,871
12,814
113
Des Moines
Shaw has not had a single MLB AB yet so while I am optimistic he could be the long term solution at 3B we've also seen a lot of prospects not live up to the hype over the years too once they got a shot at the big leagues. If they have a realistic shot at signing Bregman for a deal that doesn't hurt them long term I would rather go with a proven MLB player than gamble with an unproven rookie given what is at stake this season. Even with Bregman if Shaw proves to be the real deal then they will be forced to make a move to get him AB in Chicago. I think they probably won't sign Bregman but would be thrilled if they do. My concern is what if they give Shaw every opportunity to be the every day 3B and he struggles to hit and they are forced to send him back to Iowa to work it out. That makes Berti the 3B and he's 34 and his best season was on a crappy 2023 Marlins team where he hi 7 HR and 33 RBI for career highs. Not exactly the type of production you want from 3B, hell Patrick Wisdom even with his strikeouts could top that with a hot streak and I loathed him.
If Shaw couldn’t out produce Hoerner he wouldn’t be considered a top 20 prospect