***Official 2023 Weather Thread***

[Gunnerclone]

Sweet Geebus. Upgrade. I Can’t recall a larger MDT risk area.

 

[cowgirl836]

I’m not saying it wasn’t the right call. I understand the safety aspect, but it seems like the last couple years every time schools start cancelling, then the forecast magically improves and the cancelling was essentially pointless.

Oh I'm mostly joking, not being sarcastic at you or the schools. It's just cosmic law that you take action to prepare for something like this and it fizzles. Though overnight it seems the danger blob expanded again.

 

[awd4cy]

Sweet Geebus. Upgrade. I Can’t recall a larger MDT risk area.

Wow! I agree, never seen a moderate area that huge.

 

[FerShizzle]

Sweet Geebus. Upgrade. I Can’t recall a larger MDT risk area.

Looks like the Mississippi River is the trouble maker.

 

[wxman1]

Could be a really fast drive if the winds are in your favor.

I will be swimming upstream

 

[Drew0311]

What time is this storm supposed to hit Des Moines?

 

[enisthemenace]

What time is this storm supposed to hit Des Moines?

A little after the typical lunch time, probably.

 

[cowgirl836]

Walking outside at 6:55A and it's already this muggy?

Oh yeah. Storms are a-brewin'.

I'm a touch north of the worst but a little surprised that we had strong storms overnight with no warmth (I don't think it hit 40), sun or humidity yesterday.

 

[cstrunk]

What time is this storm supposed to hit Des Moines?

Supercells should be forming in the area by 2-3 pm.

 

[cstrunk]

The winds were howling out of the south here all night long (TX).

 

[cowgirl836]

That central flat AF portion of Illinois seems to get it decently.

 

[Hoggins]

It already looks like a storm is off to the West here in CR

 

[cycloner29]

Thunderstorm warning already in Kansas. It has begun!!

 

[Gunnerclone]

I really like Nick. One of the biggest true weather nerds on the TV side out there.

 

[Drew0311]

Supercells should be forming in the area by 2-3 pm.

If I see Reed Timmer I am hitting the basement. Thanks for the info

 

[somecyguy]

From this morning's AFD. What does it mean by clear out?

Need to keep an
eye on the CAM trends, but currently this threat area looks to be
along and south of I80. The main question here for me is SBCAPE
and sfc based storms. If we clear out, game on, if you don't,
supplemental soundings will up us determine any cap. Soundings do
have a cap for sb storms that quickly erodes and any sun would
help this happen quicker. The current runs of the HRRR have very
strong midlevel mesos over IL. I think the best area for strong
tornadoes in our area is located east of a line from Memphis, MO
to Walcott, IA to Milledgeville, IL. We may see more tornadoes
with the line later, but the stronger ones will likely be along
and east of the Mississippi River.

 

[Gunnerclone]

If I see Reed Timmer I am hitting the basement. Thanks for the info

Time to Dominate.

 

[twojman]

A few minutes ago from Brad Edwards.

 

[wxman1]

Here we go. First Mesoscale discussion of the day.

 

[cstrunk]

From this morning's AFD. What does it mean by clear out?

Need to keep an
eye on the CAM trends, but currently this threat area looks to be
along and south of I80. The main question here for me is SBCAPE
and sfc based storms. If we clear out, game on, if you don't,
supplemental soundings will up us determine any cap. Soundings do
have a cap for sb storms that quickly erodes and any sun would
help this happen quicker. The current runs of the HRRR have very
strong midlevel mesos over IL. I think the best area for strong
tornadoes in our area is located east of a line from Memphis, MO
to Walcott, IA to Milledgeville, IL. We may see more tornadoes
with the line later, but the stronger ones will likely be along
and east of the Mississippi River.

They're basically saying, if there are showers/storms/clouds too early, it will keep the atmosphere from destabilizing as much for the main show this afternoon. If the sun comes out (clouds clear out), then the atmosphere will be primed for severe weather.