Yes, especially as they are estimating that much smaller immunity levels of 10-25% is enough to stop the spread. And lets not pretend like many of those doses will be going to Africa, India, China, etc.
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Yes, especially as they are estimating that much smaller immunity levels of 10-25% is enough to stop the spread. And lets not pretend like many of those doses will be going to Africa, India, China, etc.
When your math is wrong by a factor of 100 it's really wrong. 5.3% may well be significant while 0.05% would not be close
Yeah, moments ago 5.3% and now 6.67%. Sounds like improvement to me
A long way to go I know and to paraphrase what I read online, for your nation to be safe, every nation has to be safe. Will take a while to secure vaccine(s) approval with multiple vaccines under differing governing bodies at different stages of development. Then the billions of doses have to not only be made but distributed. 7.5B doses will be a logistical nightmare.
If you take a step back and realize it took 6 years or so for the Ebola vaccine to be approved and consider that we only knew about Covid for about 8 months now the vaccine progress has been nothing short of amazing.
This has yet to be confirmed and in places where it ran rampant, it's still spreading.
Yeah, moments ago 5.3% and now 6.67%. Sounds like improvement to me
A long way to go I know and to paraphrase what I read online, for your nation to be safe, every nation has to be safe. Will take a while to secure vaccine(s) approval with multiple vaccines under differing governing bodies at different stages of development. Then the billions of doses have to not only be made but distributed. 7.5B doses will be a logistical nightmare.
If you take a step back and realize it took 6 years or so for the Ebola vaccine to be approved and consider that we only knew about Covid for about 8 months now the vaccine progress has been nothing short of amazing.
I saw a snippet a while ago with a Dr. saying the development of the vaccine was a pretty simple process but I can't remember if it was connected to what they'd already had available via OG SARS or just from what they knew from other coronaviruses.
Repeating but what we also need is information on what a reinfection means for infectiousness. Do the T-Cells react quickly enough to shut it down from being contagious? And how do they even discover that?
Didn't know where to put this but the South Park Pandemic special is great.
Goes after everyone like usual.
First thing I heard when I turned it on was Randy Marsh: 'Well, we are now out of weed'.
I needed that.
Goes after everyone like usual.
First thing I heard when I turned it on was Randy Marsh: 'Well, we are now out of weed'.
I needed that.
No ******* person with any credentials has said 10-25% will stop the spread. Fauci put Rand Paul in his place last week on that very topic. Studies show less than 9% of the US has had COVID and herd immunity wouldn’t kick in until at least 45-60% have been infected or vaccinated.
And look, we all want a miracle cure, but people need to realize it will probably be next June or July before most of us on this forum get access to the vaccine. The earliest ones take 2 doses and are around 50% effective at best guess. It’ll take 250 million doses just to get front line workers and the elderly vaccinated at 2 shots each. That happens before the rest of us. And that is just looking at the US. Will non high risk Americans be higher on the list than elderly in Britain, China, Mexico, etc?
If you listen to experts, it’s likely fall of next year before things begin to feel normal, but even then there will be outbreaks and spread in certain communities.
Math.
Population of 60+, number of frontline workers, those with compromised health. That’s a minimum of 125 million Americans.
No, the stuff about 50% effective, going to need two shots, etc.
Not arguing, just hadn't seen anything on that information.
Edit, saw stuff about how it might get approved at 50%, but hadn't seen that it's confirmed to be that.
It isn’t confirmed, that is the expectation from Fauci and others based on the early data. They believe later vaccines are likely to be higher at maybe 70%, but those are much earlier in the development cycle.
There are scientists who think once 15-20% of population is infected we could see Herd Immunity bc nearly 50% of infected individuals are asymptomatic.
Granted the asymptomatic group is still not well understood...But that is why some scientists think this.
No one has said it will stop the spread. Plenty have said it will slow it down enough that overwhelming waves of infections wont happen again. Scott Atlas listed several in a press conference recently. Dr, Johan Gieseke would be one of those. The infectious disease expert from Sweden recently hired by the WHO as part of their "Members of the Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Infections Hazards". His credentials are about as good as it gets.
Things can begin to feel normal whenever we choose. Things are normal in many other countries already, because they chose to move on with life. People can choose to continue living in fear, or choose to continue with their life, it's up to them. Anyone under 65 should not be afraid of this virus, unless they have severe health issues already. For those who want to continue to live in fear, are you willing to do so for another 12 months until a vaccine might be available? What if the vaccine is only 50% effective?
The daily reporting and broadcasting of every singe covid19 death has caused incredible phycological damage. If everyone had to hear about every single death that takes place from all causes every day, some people would never want to get out of bed in the morning. We've gotten daily reports of the 1,300 covid19 deaths in Iowa so far. We only hear about a fraction of the other 19,600 deaths that have happened in the state.
it wasn’t my math, but sure.
Bob cited WebMD before; their estimate has an optimistic floor of 45%: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200626/herd-immunity-threshold-could-be-as-low-as-43-percent
Could you link that citation on hospitals profiting from longer stays at the same time you address? Thx.
Keep this in mind. It's not a big problem when the infection rate is high, or you are only testing symptomatic people that are more likely to actually have the virus. The "false positives" of PCR tests become a HUGE issue when the true infection rate it low, but you are mass testing thousands of people. This report is for testing in the UK, but I believe the test itself and testing procedures are pretty much universal now. I haven't found any estimate for PCR testing done in the U.S. I know the creators of the test did NOT recommend it for mass surveillance testing due to its over sensitivity.
Not many of them, and even fewer where this is actually their area of expertise.
Which countries specifically are living normally like Covid isn't a thing?
And here we go again with the bullying 'living in fear' mantra. Being careful and considering others isn't living in fear. It's having a conscience.
There are people that are still working that can't just 'get another job' that have compromised immune systems. They just supposed to push through it?
I try not to read these threads much anymore because it seems like the deniers want to make it sound like anybody looking at science or impacts is peddling in panic porn. Instead, I like to think we’re just trying to say it isn’t always a binary choice of let everybody die or lock everybody in their houses. Science says there is a middle ground and even things like masks cut deaths by 50%, but that’s too inconvenient for some.
The models have been remarkably accurate thus far (actually underestimating deaths by about 15-20% for any given timeframe) and they show a nasty increase as we near late October and then even worse in December - up to 5,000 deaths a day vs the 750 right now. That would double our deaths by early January to over 400,000.
We are simply saying to listen to the science and actually build plans. Remember back in April when there was that huge show at the WH with CEOs from Target, CVS, Walmart, Walgreens, etc where it was stated by May every one of their parking lots would be test sites? Yeah, none of that ended up happening because politics stopped it out of fear of numbers showing the real spread.
Other countries that are somewhat back to a new normal haven’t “moved on”, they’ve done the hard work and put plans in, contact tracing, testing, etc. If they can successfully do contact tracing in a highly dense place like Japan, South Korea, etc - we should have a much easier time. But politics prevents progress.
This is the most self-inflicted tragedy in the history of America, regardless of who’s in charge.
The models have been remarkably accurate thus far (actually underestimating deaths by about 15-20% for any given timeframe) and they show a nasty increase as we near late October and then even worse in December - up to 5,000 deaths a day vs the 750 right now. That would double our deaths by early January to over 400,000.
We are simply saying to listen to the science and actually build plans. Remember back in April when there was that huge show at the WH with CEOs from Target, CVS, Walmart, Walgreens, etc where it was stated by May every one of their parking lots would be test sites? Yeah, none of that ended up happening because politics stopped it out of fear of numbers showing the real spread.
Other countries that are somewhat back to a new normal haven’t “moved on”, they’ve done the hard work and put plans in, contact tracing, testing, etc. If they can successfully do contact tracing in a highly dense place like Japan, South Korea, etc - we should have a much easier time. But politics prevents progress.
This is the most self-inflicted tragedy in the history of America, regardless of who’s in charge.
Most of Asia, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland.
As I said, it's reasonable for people over 65 or with severe health issues to be afraid of the virus. I am careful and don't mind wearing a mask to be considerate of others. I'm also considerate of the millions of people forced into unemployment by government mandated business closures. I'm also considerate of those who have lost their restaurants, bars and small businesses that they put their life savings into and have now lost due to those same mandated closures. I'm also considerate of children who are missing out face-to-face education and valuable social development due to school closures. I'm also considerate of parents who are struggling to figure out how to work full time jobs, while also having to "teach" their kids at home or are having to find somewhere to send their kids during the day.
I agree it's reasonable to be considerate of others. But that goes for people who ARE afraid, as much as for people who aren't.
Wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong. I agree with the last part, but probably not in the same sense that you're thinking.
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